Cameo event

[ObviouslyFake]

7 hours ago, Lhans said:

They really should put back the incremental increase per miss.

 

1 hour ago, Lhans said:

What made you think I was complaining about normal boss girls (already had all of em)? If it was the normal boss girls the odds are a lot worse since they are there all the time.

The incremental increase per miss only applied to normal boss girls before the attraction system.

[yoyowhan]

This is the fastest time I finished two event girls.I use the 10*performance free because of golden card.Perhapts I can try more 10* in this month.

(Don't do this when you have less then 10 shards left)

[Lhans]

4 hours ago, ObviouslyFake said:

The incremental increase per miss only applied to normal boss girls before the attraction system.

Eh not my point. Wouldn't you want something similar applied to the shards considering the angst of players having like a 50+ fight drought without any? 

[GeorgeMTO]

24 minutes ago, Lhans said:

Eh not my point. Wouldn't you want something similar applied to the shards considering the angst of players having like a 50+ fight drought without any? 

Well you asked for the feature to be readded, so I assumed that meant only for boss girls. If you want it added to event girls, that's a different story. I don't think it's necessary though. Yes you go through patches of not getting shards, but I've been seeing most active players not struggling to get the girls, or only needed a small number of refills, which you gain more than enough free Kobans to accommodate.

[Lhans]

7 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said:

Well you asked for the feature to be readded, so I assumed that meant only for boss girls. If you want it added to event girls, that's a different story. I don't think it's necessary though. Yes you go through patches of not getting shards, but I've been seeing most active players not struggling to get the girls, or only needed a small number of refills, which you gain more than enough free Kobans to accommodate.

So for all those unlucky folks with 50+ shard droughts, you're out of luck since you're the minority. 

[Tommy55]

15 minutes ago, Lhans said:

So for all those unlucky folks with 50+ shard droughts, you're out of luck since you're the minority. 

Since when is "everyone" the minority? Play long enough and getting a stretch of 50 or even 100 consecutive loses in inevitable.

[pitythefool]

39 minutes ago, Lhans said:

So for all those unlucky folks with 50+ shard droughts, you're out of luck since you're the minority. 

A 50 attack drought of no shards doesn't mean a whole lot. I've encountered it a few times, but it's never really affected anything greatly.

Frankly, if your familiar with my 'estimated averages' for acquiring girls, I've personally never had any issue getting a girl within ~60 attacks (+/-) of that average. Even in those situations, the second girl is/was acquired at 'average' or quicker than average to make the whole thing approximately average even when falling on the less lucky side of things.

[jaybee]

Devs don't want to add forced drops after a certain number of losses because it would turn the game "predictable".

While it is true for a drop every 10 fights or event 20 fights, I think nobody would mind it if there was a predictable pity drop after 25 or 30 consecutive losses or around half of the day's free fights. Shouldn't be too hard to implement and would be welcomed by 100% of the players.

The game is too afraid of reducing overly negative experiences. There's no need to keep a balance or aim for the "average" over a longer period. Keep the positive chances but make a cutoff when things start to go too bad. It's a game that should make people happy.

[Lhans]

1 hour ago, Tommy55 said:

Since when is "everyone" the minority? Play long enough and getting a stretch of 50 or even 100 consecutive loses in inevitable.

Okay, you guys heard him, so no more complaining about 50-100 no shard droughts. That's normal as everyone will get it eventually.

[Cantrix]

2 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said:

Well you asked for the feature to be readded, so I assumed that meant only for boss girls. If you want it added to event girls, that's a different story. I don't think it's necessary though. Yes you go through patches of not getting shards, but I've been seeing most active players not struggling to get the girls, or only needed a small number of refills, which you gain more than enough free Kobans to accommodate.

I wouldn't consider 4k kobans on top of all free combativity to get 2 girls as a "small number of refills", but then again it was about the last epic days,so this affects the amount of shards you can get per battle.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Cantrix

[Lhans]

Just now, Cantrix said:

I wouldn't consider 4k kobans to get 2 girls as a "small number of refills", but then again it was about the last epic days,so this affects the amount of shards you can get per battle.

Well I agree with what you said about "small number of refills" on epic days. It sucks to use about 500 nutaku kobans (3k HH) on bloody Dark Lord to get Kyoto. A guildie had the same experience with Ninja Spy to get Windia.

 

[jaybee]

I have had a daily 20-shard drought since the start of the shard system during events. It can be longer but has stayed below 50 this far, I think. But a minimum of 20 consecutive empty fights has been 100% guaranteed every single event day since February. For me that is the only consistency concerning shards.

[pitythefool]

2 minutes ago, Cantrix said:

I wouldn't consider 4k kobans to get 2 girls as a "small number of refills", but then again it was about the last epic days,so this affects the amount of shards you can get per battle.

I mean based on the way things are now, 4k kobans for 2 girls during an epic days is actually pretty good. Anything under ~333 battles per girl is good. (either way you're spending less than the 5400 each it would otherwise cost to Epic Pachinko them).

You shouldn't need more than a small number of refills for a Revival or Classic event.

Epic and Legendary events both essentially require refills for 1 girl. Epic you probably need ~2-8 refills, Legendary you probably need 10-20, (these estimates do factor in the free ~200 attacks).

[pitythefool]

6 minutes ago, jaybee said:

I have had a daily 20-shard drought since the start of the shard system during events. It can be longer but has stayed below 50 this far, I think. But a minimum of 20 consecutive empty fights has been 100% guaranteed every single event day since February. For me that is the only consistency concerning shards.

I don't know about 'daily', but I would agree you will end up with at least one or two streaks per girl of 0/20 shard drops, but as I keep saying it's not really a big deal. In the big picture the averages work out fine (for the most part). You'll get that 0/20 followed by a 4/20 and balance is restored lol.

[Lhans]

1 minute ago, pitythefool said:

I don't know about 'daily', but I would agree you will end up with at least one or two streaks per girl of 0/20 shard drops, but as I keep saying it's not really a big deal. In the big picture the averages work out fine (for the most part). You'll get that 0/20 followed by a 4/20 and balance is restored lol.

Um, what if that first 0/20 is followed by 0/20, then another 0/20 and yet another 0/20? Which pretty much screws you over in terms of free fights in an event.

[Cantrix]

Just now, pitythefool said:

I mean based on the way things are now, 4k kobans for 2 girls during an epic days is actually pretty good. Anything under ~333 battles per girl is good. (either way you're spending less than the 5400 each it would otherwise cost to Epic Pachinko them).

You shouldn't need more than a small number of refills for a Revival or Classic event.

Epic and Legendary events both essentially require refills for 1 girl. Epic you probably need ~2-8 refills, Legendary you probably need 10-20, (these estimates do factor in the free ~200 attacks).

I agree,, the problem is i am having simillar experiences with usual events.

The previous 2 events i had to spend respectively 1,8 and 1,2k kobans on refills. That's a reoccurring pattern...

In combativity this translates into 9 and 6 refiills-which is equals roughly 4 and 2 days of free combativity.  Thiss will translate into a 60% lower than average drop rate for a 7days event and 50% lower than average drop rate for a 4day event. Which is a bummer.

It's still better than before- where i had to make up to 26 refills(533fights) in my worst case to get Kameyala(a rare normal event girl), but then again what exactly means average to us and to the developers?

[jaybee]

I keep daily count for statistics purposes and the 0/20 drought has been a daily occurrence for me. No exceptions this far. But yeah, I cannot complain, my refills have been minimal (as I haven't even tried with hopeless cases).

[pitythefool]

4 minutes ago, Lhans said:

Um, what if that first 0/20 is followed by 0/20, then another 0/20 and yet another 0/20? Which pretty much screws you over in terms of free fights in an event.

Then you're screwed 😉. But really, an 0/80 seems really unlikely. I don't think I've run into anything worse than 0/56 to 0/60 and I'm using multiple accounts every event and recording all the attacks and when shards occur. What I was trying to state was eventually it all tends to balance itself out. You might go 6/100 then go 12/100 and at that point you're almost back to that ~10% shard rate. Whether the shard amounts are actually good is another story, but again after a ton of testing it seems like it averages itself out pretty well.

7 minutes ago, jaybee said:

I keep daily count for statistics purposes and the 0/20 drought has been a daily occurrence for me. No exceptions this far. But yeah, I cannot complain, my refills have been minimal (as I haven't even tried with hopeless cases).

Eh I don't really bother with daily count, I just keep a running overall count. You can still see the gaps in the drops. All that really matters is that you don't end way off the 'guesstimated' mark in terms of total attacks to acquire both girls for the overall event.

16 minutes ago, Cantrix said:

I agree,, the problem is i am having simillar experiences with usual events.

The previous 2 events i had to spend respectively 1,8 and 1,2k kobans on refills. That's a reoccurring pattern...

In combativity this translates into 9 and 6 refiills-which is equals roughly 4 and 2 days of free combativity.  Thiss will translate into a 60% lower than average drop rate for a 7days event and 50% lower than average drop rate for a 4day event. Which is a bummer.

It's still better than before- where i had to make up to 26 refills(533fights) in my worst case to get Kameyala(a rare normal event girl), but then again what exactly means average to us and to the developers?

Which events are you talking about in specific? Because the last Revival Event should have been roughly 0-5 refills to get both girls. The Epic Days event was going to be expensive any way you slice it.

[Cantrix]

1 hour ago, pitythefool said:

Then you're screwed 😉. But really, an 0/80 seems really unlikely. I don't think I've run into anything worse than 0/56 to 0/60 and I'm using multiple accounts every event and recording all the attacks and when shards occur. What I was trying to state was eventually it all tends to balance itself out. You might go 6/100 then go 12/100 and at that point you're almost back to that ~10% shard rate. Whether the shard amounts are actually good is another story, but again after a ton of testing it seems like it averages itself out pretty well.

Eh I don't really bother with daily count, I just keep a running overall count. You can still see the gaps in the drops. All that really matters is that you don't end way off the 'guesstimated' mark in terms of total attacks to acquire both girls for the overall event.

Which events are you talking about in specific? Because the last Revival Event should have been roughly 0-5 refills to get both girls. The Epic Days event was going to be expensive any way you slice it.

Easter feast and Spring break revival. Countrary to expectations drops from the second one were not high enough to obtain spring Lola with free tries

[Zorba the Geek]

Here we go again!!  Sorry folks...

I managed to get her 8 tries into the battle with Ninja Spy after getting Malina the normal way.  Oh that was in my Peregrine Took account.  So it's back to Karole for a few gifts and Roko to rebild my cash reserves.

I must say, it hasn't been so very hard to get these girls, but there are three of my accounts where the first girl I'm trying for is on just over 50 shards.  My luck is highly variable, but there are another two where she is sitting on 92-98 shards.  It's amazing how one +1,+3 or +6 etc shard drop per round of 20 adds up.

I won't be trying for any of the Pachinko girls for this event because I'm saving kobans for the 4 day event as mentioned in the calendar.  I suspect this may be a legendary days revival and I'll miss one day of it because I'll be away.  I'll need two refills using kobans to make up the difference and then some.  Can anyone put me out of my misery and confirm what the 4 day event will be?

Edited April 5, 2019 by Zorba the Geek
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[pitythefool]

1 hour ago, Cantrix said:

Easter feast and Spring break revival. Countrary to expectations drops from the second one were not high enough to obtain spring Lola with free tries

Not sure what you mean. Despite what kinkoid claimed, I've never thought Revival girls (at least based on the numbers I've seen) have been very attainable through merely free attacks. That's not to say it isn't possible, but the likelihood of getting two within 240-260 attacks are so-so at best. I guesstimate ~308 for 2 girls (~154 each). But needing only a few refills isn't a huge deal.

As far as Easter feast went, it was a classic event and my guesstimates fall just within the amount of free attacks you get, so on average it should work out to not needing to spend any kobans, but you will have some who need to buy some refills, but we probably aren't talking very many when needed.

Anyway I plan on making a post eventually that is like a FAQ/Reasonable expectation for shards and acquiring girls so people can read that an temper their expectations accordingly. I'm not trying to dismiss or minimize anyone's horrible luck, but all these events have fallen within reasonable acquisition rates of the 'guesstimates' I theorized for a vast majority of my testing and presumably a majority of the community.  I'm sure there are some bad luck examples, just as there are good luck examples, but most people should fall right in the middle with minor to moderate variation off the expected/estimated outcome.

 

Edit: Adding my Easter Feast result for Alex since Carina got a 100 shard drop. Alex had a 56 shardless streak and still wasn't way over my acquire guesstimate of ~286. I'll have considerably more data for Cameo event as I'm running 6-7 accounts, though some are too new and wont be able to get both girls unfortunately.

Edited April 5, 2019 by pitythefool

[Cantrix]

38 minutes ago, pitythefool said:

Not sure what you mean. Despite what kinkoid claimed, I've never thought Revival girls (at least based on the numbers I've seen) have been very attainable through merely free attacks. That's not to say it isn't possible, but the likelihood of getting two within 240-260 attacks are so-so at best. I guesstimate ~308 for 2 girls (~154 each). But needing only a few refills isn't a huge deal.

As far as Easter feast went, it was a classic event and my guesstimates fall just within the amount of free attacks you get, so on average it should work out to not needing to spend any kobans, but you will have some who need to buy some refills, but we probably aren't talking very many when needed.

Anyway I plan on making a post eventually that is like a FAQ/Reasonable expectation for shards and acquiring girls so people can read that an temper their expectations accordingly. I'm not trying to dismiss or minimize anyone's horrible luck, but all these events have fallen within reasonable acquisition rates of the 'guesstimates' I theorized for a vast majority of my testing and presumably a majority of the community.  I'm sure there are some bad luck examples, just as there are good luck examples, but most people should fall right in the middle with minor to moderate variation off the expected/estimated outcome.

9 refills + 5 days of free combativity and of rward 20pts is roughly 400fights for 2girls -yes it's quite reasonable, but it's way too impossible to get 2 girls with free combativity(or way below the implied "average" droprate that presumably allows most of the players to get 2.girls with free combaitivity).

[pitythefool]

38 minutes ago, Cantrix said:

9 refills + 5 days of free combativity and of rward 20pts is roughly 400fights for 2girls -yes it's quite reasonable, but it's way too impossible to get 2 girls with free combativity(or way below the implied "average" droprate that presumably allows most of the players to get 2.girls with free combaitivity).

That's some exceptionally bad luck if we're talking about revival girls. Can't say I've seen anything that bad across 10+ Revival Event tests. I've seen girls in revival events take 200-210 attacks to get, but the RNG usually allows the other girl to be acquired for less making a more reasonable total number like 325-350. I'd probably put a soft cap at around 370 for reasonable bad luck expectations, which is what Shal dealt with this last event. If what you're saying is true, then idk, that's pretty horrible, like 440 attacks. I'd probably write it off as an unlucky occurrence and move on. 

Edited April 5, 2019 by pitythefool

[Gacek]

i have Kakashi girl 94/100

[Gacek]

get kakashi girl