Cameo event

[Falco82]

So, yesterday I started the event and I managed to get 20 shards and I said to myself "ok, I'm above average since to take both girls because I should take one every 6 days with an average of 16 shards a day. Definitely not it will always be so good for me but ok, it can be there ".

Now, I'm attacking all day and I have taken the beauty of 0 shard today.
Tell me again about the average of luck but I keep saying that the drop rate system must be absolutely revised.

[pitythefool]

14 minutes ago, Falco82 said:

So, yesterday I started the event and I managed to get 20 shards and I said to myself "ok, I'm above average since to take both girls because I should take one every 6 days with an average of 16 shards a day. Definitely not it will always be so good for me but ok, it can be there ".

Now, I'm attacking all day and I have taken the beauty of 0 shard today.
Tell me again about the average of luck but I keep saying that the drop rate system must be absolutely revised.

Pump the brakes man.

RNG is RNG. Just because you hit a rough patch doesn't mean the numbers won't balance themselves out over the course of the event. You noted it yourself by saying 'I started out the event with 20 shards', things can turn quickly. Going from a 0 for 30, 40, 50, 60 stretch to 3,4,5,6,7 shard attacks in the following 20 isn't unheard of. I will admit it sucks when you have long stretches of no shards, but based on all the testing I've done*, it does tend to average itself out by the end of the event.

*I'm running 3+ accounts each event in order to gather data.

With average luck you should be able to get both girls by the end of the event without spending any kobans. With good luck you'll be done with days to spare. With bad luck you could be on the hook for ~0-5 refills, but considering the event pays out 972 kobans plus 1800 from completing dailies, that's still a net positive as well.

Edited April 2, 2019 by pitythefool

[Falco82]

28 minutes ago, pitythefool said:

Pump the brakes man.

RNG is RNG. Just because you hit a rough patch doesn't mean the numbers won't balance themselves out over the course of the event. You noted it yourself by saying 'I started out the event with 20 shards', things can turn quickly. Going from a 0 for 30, 40, 50, 60 stretch to 3,4,5,6,7 shard attacks in the following 20 isn't unheard of. I will admit it sucks when you have long stretches of no shards, but based on all the testing I've done*, it does tend to average itself out by the end of the event.

*I'm running 3+ accounts each event in order to gather data.

With average luck you should be able to get both girls by the end of the event without spending any kobans. With good luck you'll be done with days to spare. With bad luck you could be on the hook for ~0-5 refills, but considering the event pays out 972 kobans plus 1800 from completing dailies, that's still a net positive as well.

Well, I don't despair but it's clear that something is wrong.

One thing is to take less, another thing is don't take at all for a whole day, thus reducing the average to 11 days instead of 12 of the normal event.

Moreover it happened the exact same block also on my GH account (which is ok, I don't particularly care) but in that one I was already starting with a first day of 10 shard so we can't even say that it is a balance of luck (which then take 4 more shards doesn't seem this great luck to need a rebalancing ...)

[jaybee]

You just have to adjust your expectations. The official word is that "normally" you can get both girls with free plays during classical events and revivals.
It is becoming more obvious that the RNG rate has been calculated to achieve this only if you are lucky.

Actually, with normal luck, the RNG will require a small purchase of fights - so you can expect around 6-7 days (300-350 fights) for classical events to be normal luck. That's around 10-15 shards per day, so yeah if you get 20 one day and 0 the next day, you still have more or less average luck (10 shards per day). You can call yourself unlucky ("there's something wrong") only with longer streaks of less than 10 shards per day.

Just assume that 20 or more shards per day is extreme luck, like hitting a jackpot. You cannot be this lucky all the time. With 10 shards per day, you are still doing pretty well.

[Lemus]

1 hour ago, jaybee said:

It is becoming more obvious that the RNG rate has been calculated to achieve this only if you are lucky.

According to all the data that were collected on the forum, it was said for the average version, when there is no luck or failure. In reality, the clear distance does not happen and therefore someone will gather the necessary quantity a little earlier, and someone will lack a small amount at the end.

[TeeJay]

Well, I've been just sitting on doing what ever points I regularly generate. I did buy a full refill once and I did a partial refill another time but that'll be about the last of that. This is my drop rates so far

Donatien

Shard Drops/Number of fights : Shard Value of each drop
4/20 : 5,6,2,4
0/8
3/20 : 2,1,3
2/20 : 2,3
0/18
1/20 : 1
3/20 : 1,2,3
0/20
2/20 : 5,4

 

Normally, I'll spend 10, refill, repeat. But that's based on seeing a good, solid regular success rate such as what was happening in the last classic event. In this event I've not seen that happening. The result is that I don't feel inclined to spend Kobans on refills as there's all likelihood that I will get 0 drops. -- I think that one which reads 1/20 : 1 was the full refill and that shard dropped in the very last fight.

I think it was one of the last 2 short events I was averaging 2 drops per 10 fights regularly and I was seeing better drops and shard values in the previous 12 day event.

I'm not sure what it is but I feel that the drop rates and shard values are far more limited than last months events.

[Cantrix]

1 hour ago, TeeJay said:

Well, I've been just sitting on doing what ever points I regularly generate. I did buy a full refill once and I did a partial refill another time but that'll be about the last of that. This is my drop rates so far

Donatien

Shard Drops/Number of fights : Shard Value of each drop
4/20 : 5,6,2,4
0/8
3/20 : 2,1,3
2/20 : 2,3
0/18
1/20 : 1
3/20 : 1,2,3
0/20
2/20 : 5,4

 

Normally, I'll spend 10, refill, repeat. But that's based on seeing a good, solid regular success rate such as what was happening in the last classic event. In this event I've not seen that happening. The result is that I don't feel inclined to spend Kobans on refills as there's all likelihood that I will get 0 drops. -- I think that one which reads 1/20 : 1 was the full refill and that shard dropped in the very last fight.

I think it was one of the last 2 short events I was averaging 2 drops per 10 fights regularly and I was seeing better drops and shard values in the previous 12 day event.

I'm not sure what it is but I feel that the drop rates and shard values are far more limited than last months events.

Got 45 shards for Malina with absolutely no refills, it's just RNG. My luck was terrible the last event, as i've had to use up all my kobans to get 2 girls(3,4k for the first) sooo i'd say you are on the bad side of the stick this time.

[TeeJay]

1 hour ago, Cantrix said:

Got 45 shards for Malina with absolutely no refills, it's just RNG. My luck was terrible the last event, as i've had to use up all my kobans to get 2 girls(3,4k for the first) sooo i'd say you are on the bad side of the stick this time.

Yeah, it seems that way. I'll just keep watching and see what the drop rates continue to be like. It's just strange that what we consider bad luck persists for consecutive days. You know, with a RNG system. lol

[Eman]

End of the third day and still with only 36 shards for Bitch. Yeah, this is going to be a loooong event.

[DHarry]

Only 31 here. They're tight this event. I had 3x a 7 shard drop even, so maaaany no drop fights so far. Hope my luck changes soon. 😅

[Cantrix]

65shards on Malina zo far, no refills used. Wether it is good or bad dunno- i guess it's above average.

[Chthugha]

I'm over 70 now on Malina 🤔

[jaybee]

65 here too, certainly above average because I am on track to get the first girl in 6 days.

[Arvelak]

I've got 82 shards for Bitch right now, out of paranoia I will not be discussing how I feel about my progress... 😶

[blaa]

71 shards with league reward

[DHarry]

64 now, the 40 energy from the league reward was a great help to recover there. Still not crazy high, but more than double since this morning, I guess I should be happy. 😁

[MCP]

I got Bitch yesterday with just free combats, and have 33 shards for Malina.

So for me, the shard rate seems to have been increased on this event.

[jaybee]

133 versus 65 - or even 133 versus 31 - again, clearly the RNG calculations are not based on the same formula or the same basis for the formula.

[GeorgeMTO]

27 minutes ago, jaybee said:

133 versus 65 - or even 133 versus 31 - again, clearly the RNG calculations are not based on the same formula or the same basis for the formula.

Sorry, I might be a bit slow. How does that clearly show anything?

[jaybee]

Statistically we are talking about consistency over 200 fights during 4 days (consistency that either leads to 133 or 31 shard during that period).
I don't think it is possible to emulate this in a completely random system - however, it is possible in a system that is based on certain unequal building blocks, most (all?) of which are unknown to the users. It's another issue if users are able or unable to change those building blocks anyway, and if awareness of the system can help to (ab)use it.

[GeorgeMTO]

11 minutes ago, jaybee said:

Statistically we are talking about consistency over 200 fights during 4 days (consistency that either leads to 133 or 31 shard during that period).
I don't think it is possible to emulate this in a completely random system - however, it is possible in a system that is based on certain unequal building blocks, most (all?) of which are unknown to the users. It's another issue if users are able or unable to change those building blocks anyway, and if awareness of the system can help to (ab)use it.

Sounds like you don't understand how random works. It's totally possible for either situation to happen. There are LOTS of people playing this game after all, so unlikely situations can still occur

[jaybee]

I continue to be bothered by too much consistency in the randomness of this game, especially after the shard system was introduced and created conditions for observing it better. There seem to be elements in the RNG that can be amplified either by factors not controllable by the player (level, IP, volume ID, whatever) or by the play style, unwittingly (how the fights are fought - how many together, do you stop or continue when you get a hit, do you refresh, and a multitude of other possible factors that a player is probably unaware of doing differently than the others).

[Lhans]

19 minutes ago, jaybee said:

I continue to be bothered by too much consistency in the randomness of this game, especially after the shard system was introduced and created conditions for observing it better. There seem to be elements in the RNG that can be amplified either by factors not controllable by the player (level, IP, volume ID, whatever) or by the play style, unwittingly (how the fights are fought - how many together, do you stop or continue when you get a hit, do you refresh, and a multitude of other possible factors that a player is probably unaware of doing differently than the others).

That's just superstition. The problem with the alleged 1 in 10 odds, you have 9 in 10 chances of not getting any shards. And that doesn't change no matter how long you fight. Your first fight has the same chance as your 100th fight. They really should put back the incremental increase per miss.

[GeorgeMTO]

23 minutes ago, Lhans said:

That's just superstition. The problem with the alleged 1 in 10 odds, you have 9 in 10 chances of not getting any shards. And that doesn't change no matter how long you fight. Your first fight has the same chance as your 100th fight. They really should put back the incremental increase per miss.

This thread is about event girls, leave the normal boss girl complaints to other threads.

[Lhans]

5 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said:

This thread is about event girls, leave the normal boss girl complaints to other threads.

What made you think I was complaining about normal boss girls (already had all of em)? If it was the normal boss girls the odds are a lot worse since they are there all the time.