Enough of the donation contests already!

[6wanker9]

Even if it's paired up with another source of points, those are usually irrelevant in the final score. The only exception may be XP (if you have XP reward from the season left).

[Kenrae]

It's getting old, yeah 😅

[jamanga]

5th in a row by my count, I'm over it too.

[Gotaku]

Did they remove the Champion Attack Contests? Havent seen one for weeks now.

[windia]

8 minutes ago, Gotaku said:

Did they remove the Champion Attack Contests? Havent seen one for weeks now.

in my very small sample of data (onnutaku) they appeared max 3 times a month - some month is without any.  

In this data sample fighting champions is  7% of 192% rewards possible. 192% means that e.g. "eternal rivalry" makes two entries: 1 for champ, 1 for villains.

While "spend Ymen" is like 26% due to having 4 daily contests where this is possible.

[jamanga]

And we are off again.. the monotony of contests is getting annoying. I don't get it.

[FinderKeeper]

rng is rng

 1  9  8  4  1  6  3  2  8  9  5  6  1  8  2  6  1  9  7  1 
 7  6  9  5  1  4  4  6  7  4  9  8  7  7  4  8  5  9  3  2 
 3  6  6  2  5  6  3  8  1  9  1  7  6  6  4  5  2  4  8  4 
 1  1  3  9  9  6  3  5  6  4  4  2  2  9  1  4  3  4  4  4 
 8  7  6  1  7  5  3  3  6  2  2  1  5  8  1  2  5  1  2  6 
 3  1  1  7  6  8  2  4  4  3  4  1  3  8  1  3  8  3  8  7 
 5  8  7  3  4  7  9  7  7  8  4  6  6  6  1  4  9  6  4  7 
 4  7  9  9  4  3  6  5  3  8  7  6  6  6  1  9  7  7  8  8 
 3  5  8  3  7  7  7  5  8  5  7  5  3  4  8  7  6  2  5  4 
 6  3  8  7  8  7  9  2  1  8  7  1  7  1  9  6  3  6  3  2 

see patterns and repeats above? yet it was randomly generated

[jamanga]

10 hours ago, FinderKeeper said:

rng is rng

 1  9  8  4  1  6  3  2  8  9  5  6  1  8  2  6  1  9  7  1 
 7  6  9  5  1  4  4  6  7  4  9  8  7  7  4  8  5  9  3  2 
 3  6  6  2  5  6  3  8  1  9  1  7  6  6  4  5  2  4  8  4 
 1  1  3  9  9  6  3  5  6  4  4  2  2  9  1  4  3  4  4  4 
 8  7  6  1  7  5  3  3  6  2  2  1  5  8  1  2  5  1  2  6 
 3  1  1  7  6  8  2  4  4  3  4  1  3  8  1  3  8  3  8  7 
 5  8  7  3  4  7  9  7  7  8  4  6  6  6  1  4  9  6  4  7 
 4  7  9  9  4  3  6  5  3  8  7  6  6  6  1  9  7  7  8  8 
 3  5  8  3  7  7  7  5  8  5  7  5  3  4  8  7  6  2  5  4 
 6  3  8  7  8  7  9  2  1  8  7  1  7  1  9  6  3  6  3  2 

see patterns and repeats above? yet it was randomly generated

rng really!? Surely the contests, like the events are actually planned!?  They generally used to follow a more logical flow e.g. orbs contest, followed by sell items, followed by donate money etc...  my assumption was that they've noticed people have way too much money and this is the most obvious way to spend it - but multiple of the same contest in a row is crap, and even if it is rng as you mentioned, is simple enough to avoid programatically.

[GeorgeMTO]

Just now, jamanga said:

rng really!? Surely the contests, like the events are actually planned!?

As far as we can tell, it's always been RNG for the normal contests. If you remove too much RNG programmatically, it stops being RNG.

[jamanga]

2 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said:

As far as we can tell, it's always been RNG for the normal contests. If you remove too much RNG programmatically, it stops being RNG.

it does seem strange to me that over last couple of years I did notice a logical pattern, which as an analyst programmer myself is part of my job. But nevermind, I will get over it! Thanks for the quick response.

[Peaches]

On 7/12/2021 at 9:30 PM, GeorgeMTO said:

As far as we can tell, it's always been RNG for the normal contests. If you remove too much RNG programmatically, it stops being RNG.

 

On 7/12/2021 at 9:35 PM, jamanga said:

it does seem strange to me that over last couple of years I did notice a logical pattern, which as an analyst programmer myself is part of my job. But nevermind, I will get over it! Thanks for the quick response.

George is assuming it's at present an attempt to be truly random and not weighted. You have to ignore other things in the game that are obviously weighted (like the store) to make that assumption.

Logic can never create truly random output, though a really good algorithm can come fairly close. On the other hand a really crappy one and/or a poorly weighted one - like the one that was used to drop 5,6 and 7 mythic consumables and is currently being used to drop *"no more than two"* of the same- will never come close. If anyone wants to bet real money that they changed the algorithm rather than just the weights, you have a taker right here.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Peaches
Improper citation

[DocJD]

1 hour ago, Peaches said:

Logic can never create truly random output, though a really good algorithm can come fairly close. On the other hand a really crappy one and/or a poorly weighted one - like the one that was used to drop 5,6 and 7 mythic consumables and is currently being used to drop *"no more than two"* of the same- will never come close. If anyone wants to bet real money that they changed the algorithm rather than just the weights, you have a taker right here.

Ever since the announcement of the new system, I have gotten EXACTLY 2 mythic books and 2 mythic gifts every single time. That's not random and I don't think it's supposed to be. I've never bought one so I don't pay attention to which ones make up the pair but I can say the other 6 certainly look random to me.

[NYPup2Train]

Very few things in the game(s) strike me as pure-random. There's simply no way these kinds of "distributions" occur as frequently as I encounter them, in purely randomized selection:

(In fact, I didn't have that screenshot when I started writing this comment, but I was confident that if I wandered into Champions and poked around, I could find at least one example with three-of-a-kind or more. Sure enough, this was the first one I opened.)

I'm sure there's an element of randomness to it. Perhaps which set of poses to display / which contest to run / (insert copious other examples here) is decided randomly, but it's selecting from a fixed list that's not particularly random at all.

Say there are... 12 possible contests that could be run, hypothetically. Now imagine 9 of those 12 are donation contests. Even with the best RNG, it's still going to feel like the algorithm is producing an awful lot of donation contest. Because it is.

[blaa]

26 minutes ago, NYPup2Train said:

Say there are... 12 possible contests that could be run, hypothetically. Now imagine 9 of those 12 are donation contests. Even with the best RNG, it's still going to feel like the algorithm is producing an awful lot of donation contest. Because it is.

RNG doesnt mean that you get the same contest the same amount of times (at least not in a small sample like a few years) or that you have to have the same amount of different tasks, ofc you get by 9/12 donation contests more donation contests (math!), but that doesnt have anything to do with RNG. It's also not a pattern or whatsoever. If you put 9 tomatoes and 3 carrots in a back and pick one randomly (and put it back after, or maybe you even wait after you picked 3 more), you will get ofc more tomatoes than carrots.

RNG only means that contests are chosen randomly, ofc the pool can be restricted (for instance the same contest isnt in the pool of possible contests the next (3?) days), but choosing one of the possibilites still seems to be random.

On 7/13/2021 at 4:35 AM, jamanga said:

it does seem strange to me that over last couple of years I did notice a logical pattern, which as an analyst programmer myself is part of my job. But nevermind, I will get over it! Thanks for the quick response.

good choice, since you are trained to see pattern you probably tend to see patterns even if there arent any - that's how you relate to reality/trained to interpret it.

[Methos2]

25 minutes ago, NYPup2Train said:

could find at least one example with three-of-a-kind or more. Sure enough, this was the first one I opened

Each champion can only use 4 poses of his class, not just any poses. So the probability of 4 of a kind isn't as low as you might think.

 

29 minutes ago, NYPup2Train said:

Now imagine 9 of those 12 are donation contests. Even with the best RNG, it's still going to feel like the algorithm is producing an awful lot of donation contest.

But do the 9 have the exact same contest? Don't forget that donation is used in different combinations of contests (e.g. by itself, with sell, with XP, with PvP). So that increases the odd of seeing more donation contest.

[DvDivXXX]

4 hours ago, Methos2 said:

Don't forget that donation is used in different combinations of contests (e.g. by itself, with sell, with XP, with PvP). So that increases the odd of seeing more donation contest.

That's the money shot right here. I'm surprised this thread went on for so long before someone spelled it out.

Technically/officially, there are 15 different regular contests in rotation. In practice, a lot of them can easily be grouped as very near duplicates.

• Contests #1; #2 and #4 are basically "Gain XP". (3/15)
• Contests #3; #5 and #13 are basically "Give XP to your girls". (3/15)
• Contests #6; #7 and #8 are basically "Farm PvE wins". (3/15)
• Contests #9; #11; #12; and #15 are basically "Donate Cash (Ymens)". (4/15)
• Contests #10 ("Sell Items") and #14 ("Burn Orbs") are each their own thing. (1/15)

So, in practice, we only have 6 contest types, and their respective odds to occur aren't all the same:

• "Gain XP": 20%
• "Give XP to your girls": 20%
• "Farm PvE wins": 20%
• "Donate Cash (Ymens)": 26.67%
• "Sell Items": 6.67%
• "Burn Orbs": 6.67%

Obviously I rounded to .67 all the infinite .666666 above, so it doesn't add up to exactly 100%. But you get the idea. It's to be expected that we get the donation-based contests more often than any other, then that we get a fair bit of XP, Girl XP, and PvE, but a little less often each than Donations, and that we rarely see the Orbs and Sell Items ones.

[Cartageno]

On 8/8/2021 at 7:46 AM, NYPup2Train said:

Very few things in the game(s) strike me as pure-random. There's simply no way these kinds of "distributions" occur as frequently as I encounter them, in purely randomized selection:

(In fact, I didn't have that screenshot when I started writing this comment, but I was confident that if I wandered into Champions and poked around, I could find at least one example with three-of-a-kind or more. Sure enough, this was the first one I opened.)

I'm sure there's an element of randomness to it. Perhaps which set of poses to display / which contest to run / (insert copious other examples here) is decided randomly, but it's selecting from a fixed list that's not particularly random at all.

Say there are... 12 possible contests that could be run, hypothetically. Now imagine 9 of those 12 are donation contests. Even with the best RNG, it's still going to feel like the algorithm is producing an awful lot of donation contest. Because it is.

 

On 8/8/2021 at 8:21 AM, Methos2 said:

Each champion can only use 4 poses of his class, not just any poses. So the probability of 4 of a kind isn't as low as you might think.

True.

In fact, the odds of any pose appearing thrice or more for the first four battles where it is restricted to four poses (assuming pure randomness with equal odds for each position) is a bit over 40% (41.40625% to be exact). The odds of it happening for at least one champion at any given time is around 96%. It would be way more curious if you were not able to find one, so you were confident correctly. This is what should happen with RNG.

[jamanga]

On 8/8/2021 at 4:21 PM, Methos2 said:

Each champion can only use 4 poses of his class, not just any poses. So the probability of 4 of a kind isn't as low as you might think.

I didn't know this. I have a vague memory of seeing 5 poses for the one champion (not their preferred pose though). I did get 4 matching poses with a high level Visor (which sucked, as it was a time when you actually had to save up champion tickets) and Any was the highest level KH girl that I didn't have.

On the flip-side I've only ever been able to the match all 10 poses once in my several years playing the game...