[ 03-Feb-22 ] Mythic Days - (Best girl) Discussion

[holymolly]

7 minutes ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

That's me picked-up Norou. Stats:

Total Kost (including 4xSP): 1719 Nutaku Kobans (10314 HH).

1056 Combativity used, 319 free (actual cost 32 Kobans for 4x50 play right at the start).

Drop rate was (for the second month in a row) significantly below the average (7%), though still a bit above Angelic Lenaelle, at 5.59%. Despite this improved drop rate, this month only cost me 50 Koban less than last month because a lot of those drops came before I could put on an SP due to Psyche.

Combined with my poor showings in MP and EP, I'm starting to feel on the unlucky side lol.

Along the way I picked up 68 MPs (drop 6.44%), 49 tickets (drop 4.64%) and 1305 gems (didn't record colour, drop 8.24%).

Finally, to put some data to the 'Norou's less popular' conversation I took a screenshot at 3.5 hours to go:

 

Compared to Angelic Lenaelle last month, who at the same time had 63k shards left, Norou seems to be significantly MORE popular (~167 more players have picked her up) despite being the second Sensual in a row. (I expect some big mod preferrential treatment for validating you @holymolly 😛).

Yeah she´s also the 2nd sensual in a row ! there are so many things that simply put at a disadventage but she still succeeds 

(I can´t say that you´re getting privileged treatment because that obviously wouldn´t be fair to all the others with their wrong opinions, but?;))

[natstar]

7 minutes ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

That's me picked-up Norou. Stats:

Total Kost (including 4xSP): 1719 Nutaku Kobans (10314 HH).

1056 Combativity used, 319 free (actual cost 32 Kobans for 4x50 play right at the start).

Drop rate was (for the second month in a row) significantly below the average (7%), though still a bit above Angelic Lenaelle, at 5.59%. Despite this improved drop rate, this month only cost me 50 Koban less than last month because a lot of those drops came before I could put on an SP due to Psyche.

Combined with my poor showings in MP and EP, I'm starting to feel on the unlucky side lol.

Along the way I picked up 68 MPs (drop 6.44%), 49 tickets (drop 4.64%) and 1305 gems (didn't record colour, drop 8.24%).

Finally, to put some data to the 'Norou's less popular' conversation I took a screenshot at 3.5 hours to go:

 

Compared to Angelic Lenaelle last month, who at the same time had 63k shards left, Norou seems to be significantly MORE popular (~167 more players have picked her up) despite being the second Sensual in a row. (I expect some big mod preferrential treatment for validating you @holymolly 😛).

Angelic Lenaelle had the advantage of not sharing the same villain as the start of the month/classic event as well
If Lovebot norou was on a different villain instead of being on edwarda a lot more people would have gone for her for sure being that Norou was the first 5 legendary girl know how got as well making her popular.

Good luck on rng on shards to anyone still going for mythic girl the event is almost over so don't leave it to late or you need to wait for her to return in a mythic revival which will take months because they are already behind on the mythic revivals they are doing due to taking a break from doing mythic revivals. 

[holymolly]

5 minutes ago, natstar said:

Angelic Lenaelle had the advantage of not sharing the same villain as the start of the month/classic event as well
If Lovebot norou was on a different villain instead of being on edwarda a lot more people would have gone for her for sure being that Norou was the first 5 legendary girl know how got as well making her popular.

Good luck on rng on shards to anyone still going for mythic girl the event is almost over so don't leave it to late or you need to wait for her to return in a mythic revival which will take months because they are already behind on the mythic revivals they are doing due to taking a break from doing mythic revivals. 

I´ll start lobbying for no mythic norou revivals like I did with my mythic norou campaign and you guys know how good that one went   ..Are you guys sure that you can handle that fomo ? better hurry up and get your shards 😈

 

[Incubys]

11 minutes ago, Methos2 said:

That seems off. Even if drops for Psyche not included, you would still need 56 drops over 860 fights. So shouldn't it be most 6.5%?

I'm very Confused.Com .... 860 * 11.63% = 100.018 where as 860 * 6.5% =  55.9 shards.

The % is a little skewed as I activated my first SL before I realised L.B.N. was on Villain with Psyche.  I let that one run out and didn't start the 2nd SL until I'd obtained Psyche, by which point I was at 10 shards of L.B.N.

[JustVisitingReborn]

5 minutes ago, Incubys said:

I'm very Confused.Com .... 860 * 11.63% = 100.018 where as 860 * 6.5% =  55.9 shards.

The % is a little skewed as I activated my first SL before I realised L.B.N. was on Villain with Psyche.  I let that one run out and didn't start the 2nd SL until I'd obtained Psyche, by which point I was at 10 shards of L.B.N.

You're confusing shards received % and drop %.

To give a simple example if you got 100 shards over 860 Combativity you had a shards received percentage of 11.63% (100/860*100). However, if these were all received with the SP booster (meaning you got 2/drop) you only received 50 drops. That means that your drop percentage would be 5.81% (50/860*100).

What the folks here are interested in is your drop percentage And a nearly 12% drop rate would be a remarkable outlier.

Edited February 6, 2022 by JustVisitingReborn

[Liliat]

The % drop rate doesn't mean much if you count the "Number of shards", rather than the "Number of drops". That's why Incubys' number is so high.

100 / 860 = 11.6% indeed, but that's for the total number of shards. In that case, the expected "best case scenario" average would be 14% (For a 7% drop rate).

So it's a little low, but that's expected, since it's not the best case scenario: only 4 SP Boosters used, with some charges "wasted" on Psyché.

[JustVisitingReborn]

21 minutes ago, holymolly said:

(I can´t say that you´re getting privileged treatment because that obviously wouldn´t be fair to all the others with their wrong opinions, but?;))

I'm going to be effing and jeffing and calling everyone hobbledehoys and despite my unacceptable behaviour you're going to have to defend me 😛

[bolitho76]

Got Norou some hours ago. Had a good luck with psyche: the 5th drop was the jackpot-drop of 100, so I need only 5 Sandalwood (a sixth was storaged if needed). From natural regen and storaged combativity I could use 204, 12x50 and 3x20 refills (lousy droprate for the last needed drop: more than 80 combativity needed) so ca. 7150 Koban for Refills and 2160 for 4x Sandalwood.

Edited February 6, 2022 by bolitho76

[Incubys]

Apologies all, thanks to @Methos@JustVisitingReborn@LiliatI've now realised my error. Have amended original post but to save looking back ; 54 drops for 100 shards = 6.28 drop rate. I'll try harder in future !!

[JustVisitingReborn]

15 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

so I need only 5 Sandalwood (a sixth was storaged if needed).

There's no situation where you would need more than 5SPs You only need 50 double drops to get the girl from zero and 5SPs gives you 55 double drops.

[Yuyureka]

il y a 14 minutes, JustVisitingReborn a dit :

There's no situation where you would need more than 5SPs You only need 50 double drops to get the girl from zero and 5SPs gives you 55 double drops.

If he start using his sandalwood before getting Psyche, he might need more than 5 SandalWood, cause part of the 55 double drops will be Psyche shards instead of Nouru

[natstar]

5 minutes ago, Yuyureka said:

If he start using his sandalwood before getting Psyche, he might need more than 5 SandalWood, cause part of the 55 double drops will be Psyche shards instead of Nouru

Yeah but a bad idea to use sandlewood until you got Psyche though but good point.

[Liliat]

And... 100!

This was a lot smoother than Finalmecia, in similar circumstances (Although I wasted some SP charges again).

745 Fights, 59 Drops, 4 Sandalwood used (3 charges "wasted" on Psyché)

Didn't have a lot of stored combativity because I spent last month's season rewards on Alexa, so I had to spend 5732 Kobans on refills. 236 Free combativity, 532 from refills. 7 Fights used when only Psyché was present, 16 fights remaining after the last shard drop.

Total cost: 7892 Kobans

Drop rate: 7.92% (Love that )

Now I need to stop spending Kobans for a full month if I want to be ready for Moe Bunny, without sacrificing the next Mythic girl (I'll skip Matcha's revival).

Edit: Oh, and I also obtained +120 Kobans because I got half of the shards during the Villains Contest on day 2.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Liliat

[blaa]

got the girl in the end, fought 3 days with natural regen = 12 shards, then 7x50 + 10x20 refills + 4 sandalwood, so 712 fights in the end (more or less average) + 990 nubans spend for refills + 360 nubans for sandalwood (even though there might be some from PoV already) + 56 nubans for x50

[Kojot]

Got her!

~7000 for refills + 5 * 540 (Sandalwood perfume) = 9700 kobans

I also had ~170 free combativity points gathered at the end of January + occasional free combativity points from contests and daily goals.

The cheapest mythic girl by far and it's mostly because of sandalwood perfume I used for the first time. Psyche from the second event, who is on Edwarda too, took a few of my extra shards from sandalwood but it didn't matter that much. 

[bolitho76]

1 hour ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

There's no situation where you would need more than 5SPs You only need 50 double drops to get the girl from zero and 5SPs gives you 55 double drops.

The situation is, when there is an Even-Girl and with a little luck you will need only one aditional Sandalwood for her (average go from 5 to 6 and with a little luck 16 drops are enough to get her and this are the last 5 from the 5th Sandalwood for the Mythic and 1 full). The investment is not so much more than to make 12 singel drops and 44 double drops for the mythic. Calcualted with 6% dropchance for Mythics and 10% dropchance for Event GIrls the 6 Sandalwood way cost less than 300 Koban more.

[natstar]

26786 shards were left at the end of event.

I am glad i got her even though i had to get all Lustful valentine event girls before trying for her because i got Psyche last from epic pachinko which i wanted to get to save on kobans but at least i get bonus gems once i get the mission event girl..
 

[JustVisitingReborn]

44 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

The situation is, when there is an Even-Girl and with a little luck you will need only one aditional Sandalwood for her (average go from 5 to 6 and with a little luck 16 drops are enough to get her and this are the last 5 from the 5th Sandalwood for the Mythic and 1 full). The investment is not so much more than to make 12 singel drops and 44 double drops for the mythic. Calcualted with 6% dropchance for Mythics and 10% dropchance for Event GIrls the 6 Sandalwood way cost less than 300 Koban more.

I just sat down and did the numbers for and against using SP boosters when there is a CE overlapping the MD and I think your approach is right! From what I can see the SP should be used from the start of the MD event.

--------------------------------------


Classic Events without SP:

Average drop size is:

(1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8)/8 = 4.5 shards per drop

100 shards/4.5 = ~23 drops required to get the girl.

10% drop rate means 230 Combativity

With SP

Average drop size is 4.5+1 = 5.5 shards per drop

100 shards/5.5 = ~18 drops required to get the girl.

10% drop rate means 180 Combativity.


Cost of using SP during a CE:

230-180 = 50 less Combativity.

Value of Combativity = 1.8 Koban (Nutaku)

Saving on Combativity = 50x1.8 = 90 Koban

Cost for SP (you need 1 7/11 of a SP booster) = ~147 Koban.

You are spending 57 Kobans more than you are saving by using a SP during a CE.



Accounting for the Mythic Days:

First 230 Combativity without SP you would be expected to get ~16 drops, meaning that the total number of drops you need for MD if you do not use SP on the CE is 58 (42 with SP and 16 without) compared to 50 if you use SP throughout.

So you need 8 extra drops.

8 drops at a 7% drop rate means you need an extra 8/0.07 = 115 Combativity.

The extra cost of that Combativity is 115x1.8 = 207 Kobans.

So to not use the SP from the start costs you an additional 207 Kobans on Mythic Days. To use SP from the start costs you an additional 57 Kobans on the CE. Ergo, you are actually saving 150 Kobans (207-57) (900 Kobans HH) by using the SP from the start of the MD event if there is an overlap between MD and CE.

Both options cost you more than if the MD does not overlap with the CE, but using SP from the start costs you less than not using SP.

------------------------------------

This is contrary to what I expected. Can anyone see a flaw in the above analysis?

Edited February 6, 2022 by JustVisitingReborn

[Blabla07]

So getting Norou ended up quite expensive 🙁.

Around 50 free natural regen fights (x1) and 1000 (x1) fights with koban refill ( costing 10,6k kobans ) and 4 SB booster, total cost is 128000 kobans, ,not that great 🤔. The presence of Psyche on the villain was not too bad as I unlock her before having to use the 4 SP boosters.

12 x1 drop and 44 x2 drop ( with 4 sandals ) on 1050 fights gives an 5,3% abysmal drop rate. Not that great 🤔

On the positive side, I claimed the first place in the daily contest with all those fights 😅

[holymolly]

2 hours ago, natstar said:

26786 shards were left at the end of event.

I am glad i got her even though i had to get all Lustful valentine event girls before trying for her because i got Psyche last from epic pachinko which i wanted to get to save on kobans but at least i get bonus gems once i get the mission event girl..
 

does anyone know how many shards we had left for lenalle ? (on hh.com ^^) ?

I´m just curious to see how "unpopular" Norou is compared to her @jelom

 

[Kenrae]

8 minutes ago, holymolly said:

does anyone know how many shards we had left for lenalle ? (on hh.com ^^) ?

I´m just curious to see how "unpopular" Norou is compared to her @jelom

 

Do the extra shards from SP count towards the pool? If they don't count, and people have used SP less because of being with Psyche, that alone can explain a difference in favour of Norou.

[holymolly]

15 minutes ago, Kenrae said:

Do the extra shards from SP count towards the pool? If they don't count, and people have used SP less because of being with Psyche, that alone can explain a difference in favour of Norou.

First you guys say Norou isn´t that popular, then it´s due to the SP´s ...y´all are just making up excuses at this point

(they don´t as far as I know) (also @Kenrae did you check my discord message? I hope you did ^^)

[Kenrae]

 

2 hours ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

I just sat down and did the numbers for and against using SP boosters when there is a CE overlapping the MD and I think your approach is right! From what I can see the SP should be used from the start of the MD event.

--------------------------------------


Classic Events without SP:

Average drop size is:

(1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8)/8 = 4.5 shards per drop

100 shards/4.5 = ~23 drops required to get the girl.

10% drop rate means 230 Combativity

With SP

Average drop size is 4.5+1 = 5.5 shards per drop

100 shards/5.5 = ~18 drops required to get the girl.

10% drop rate means 180 Combativity.


Cost of using SP during a CE:

230-180 = 50 less Combativity.

Value of Combativity = 1.8 Koban (Nutaku)

Saving on Combativity = 50x1.8 = 90 Koban

Cost for SP (you need 1 7/11 of a SP booster) = ~147 Koban.

You are spending 57 Kobans more than you are saving by using a SP during a CE.



Accounting for the Mythic Days:

First 230 Combativity without SP you would be expected to get ~16 drops, meaning that the total number of drops you need for MD if you do not use SP on the CE is 58 (42 with SP and 16 without) compared to 50 if you use SP throughout.

So you need 8 extra drops.

8 drops at a 7% drop rate means you need an extra 8/0.07 = 115 Combativity.

The extra cost of that Combativity is 115x1.8 = 207 Kobans.

So to not use the SP from the start costs you an additional 207 Kobans on Mythic Days. To use SP from the start costs you an additional 57 Kobans on the CE. Ergo, you are actually saving 150 Kobans (207-57) (900 Kobans HH) by using the SP from the start of the MD event if there is an overlap between MD and CE.

Both options cost you more than if the MD does not overlap with the CE, but using SP from the start costs you less than not using SP.

------------------------------------

This is contrary to what I expected. Can anyone see a flaw in the above analysis?

CE drop range goes from 2 to 8, not 1 to 8. So it's:

200 combativity without SP, 170 combativity with SP.

30 less combativity by using SP. You save 54 kobans

Cost of SP is 139 kobans (1 + 6/11 of a booster instead of 1 + 7/11).

You are spending 85 kobans more, not 57.

200 combativity without SP, you expect 14 drops. Total number of drops is 57 (43 + 14). So 7 extra drops.

7 extra drops mean 100 combativity. Extra cost is 180 kobans.

To not use the SP from the start costs you an additional 180 Kobans. To use SP from the start costs you an additional 85 Kobans on the CE. It's less than the 150 you calculated but you're still saving 95 kobans  .

 

[JustVisitingReborn]

7 minutes ago, Kenrae said:

To not use the SP from the start costs you an additional 180 Kobans. To use SP from the start costs you an additional 85 Kobans on the CE. It's less than the 150 you calculated but you're still saving 95 kobans  .

Thanks for the correction on the drop range. Otherwise I'm a little surprised, but it's extra information that will be useful going forwards!

[Kenrae]

Just now, JustVisitingReborn said:

Thanks for the correction on the drop range. Otherwise I'm a little surprised, but it's extra information that will be useful going forwards!

I think nobody bothered to make the maths and we all assumed it was worse. Go figure.