[ 03-Feb-22 ] Mythic Days - (Best girl) Discussion

[Mr.S]

Reading here seems I got luckyish with shards...

Bonus from today:

 

[DvDivXXX]

1 hour ago, Kenrae said:

Do the extra shards from SP count towards the pool?

No, they don't. They're created out of thin air and not taken from the pool. It's been the case for all previous MDs since the item was introduced, though. So it can't be a factor in why Norou had a lot more leftover shards at the end of her event than most other Mythics.

[JustVisitingReborn]

3 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

So it can't be a factor in why Norou had a lot more leftover shards at the end of her event than most other Mythics.

She didn't At least not more than Angelic Lenaelle -

I couldn't comment on previous Mythics, but I recorded a data point of Angelic Lenaelle that made for a good comparitor.

[jelom]

4 hours ago, holymolly said:

I´m just curious to see how "unpopular" Norou is compared to her @jelom

You know that Norou is one of my favourites , and I was just just taking the oportunity to pinch you a little  (and it must have worked because you pinged me two times about it ), but the most probable explanation is that people (me included) were delaying their fights to the last two days in order to do single battles and saving the x10 and x50 button kobans.  And also because of psyche appearing in the same villain.

 

 

[natstar]

4 hours ago, Kenrae said:

Do the extra shards from SP count towards the pool? If they don't count, and people have used SP less because of being with Psyche, that alone can explain a difference in favour of Norou.

It's also possible that less people went for Norou because of Psyche being on there.

[Boulie2]

il y a 5 minutes, natstar a dit :

It's also possible that less people went for Norou because of Psyche being on there.

Even so i find it surprising, i'd thought that seeing the shards left people would try to get her even with Psyche

[Liliat]

Il y a 6 heures, DvDivXXX a dit :

No, they don't. They're created out of thin air and not taken from the pool. It's been the case for all previous MDs since the item was introduced, though. So it can't be a factor in why Norou had a lot more leftover shards at the end of her event than most other Mythics.

Actually it is a factor, precisely because shards are created out of thin air: if you use 1 less SP (to avoid wasting on Psyché), then you're taking more "real" shards from the pool for the same end-result.

Instead of talking 50 from the pool and 50 from SP, you take 56 from the pool and 44 from SP. So that's a 10% difference.

(Of course, if you do the math correctly like @JustVisitingRebornand @Kenrae, rather than naively like... Myself and everyone else , then you use 6 SP boosters instead of 4 and you end up taking 50 shards from the pool as usual).

[Kenrae]

32 minutes ago, Liliat said:

Actually it is a factor, precisely because shards are created out of thin air: if you use 1 less SP (to avoid wasting on Psyché), then you're taking more "real" shards from the pool for the same end-result.

Instead of talking 50 from the pool and 50 from SP, you take 56 from the pool and 44 from SP. So that's a 10% difference.

This is what I was refering to  .

[DvDivXXX]

Well, there's that, and also it's not the first time the MD girl is placed on the same villain as a regular event girl, either. Alt. Finalmecia was on Donatien along with Ghostly Chains Dove in December and she still sold out like pancakes (and that's just one recent example).

I think a bunch of other factors are more likely to explain it, from the surprise return of MD Revivals with Alexa just a couple of weeks before this new MD, to Norou having the same Color as the previous regular MD girl Lenaëlle, to just the sheer increase in koban-demanding features and events and surprises all over the place draining people's koban stashes and/or willingness to keep up with it.

[Liliat]

 This has been bothering me a bit:

Le 06/02/2022 à 13:35, JustVisitingReborn a dit :

Both options cost you more than if the MD does not overlap with the CE, but using SP from the start costs you less than not using SP.

 

Le 06/02/2022 à 15:59, Kenrae a dit :

To not use the SP from the start costs you an additional 180 Kobans. To use SP from the start costs you an additional 85 Kobans on the CE. It's less than the 150 you calculated but you're still saving 95 kobans  .

So I went ahead and simulated the different strategies, when CE and MD overlap.

The assumptions are:

- 7% average drop rate for MD, 10% for CE

- 1 Shard drop for MD, 2-8 shards for CE (With even chances for each value)

- A booster is worth using for a Mythic Girl, if at least 8 shards are missing (4 booster charges) (At 7% drop rate, it takes 1429 fights to get the girl on average, which is a cost of 15.4k Kobans, or 154 Kobans per shard. A SP Boosters costs 540 Kobans, which is 135 Kobans per shard if you use 4 charges)

I simulated 100k fights with each strategy.

Results:

Citation

Assumed MD Drop rate: 7.0%

Strategy: Using boosters after obtaining the CE girl
--- Fights ---
Avg: 827
Median: 822
1% High: 619
1% Low: 1073
0.1% High: 560
0.1% Low: 1168
--- Boosters used ---
Avg: 43.0
Median: 43
1% High: 33
1% Low: 48
0.1% High: 33
0.1% Low: 49

Strategy: Using boosters for CE + MD at the same time
--- Fights ---
Avg: 730
Median: 725
1% High: 519
1% Low: 979
0.1% High: 462
0.1% Low: 1073
--- Boosters used ---
Avg: 67
Median: 66
1% High: 64
1% Low: 71
0.1% High: 63
0.1% Low: 72
Chances to require a 7th booster: 5%

(Note: the Average when using boosters immediately is slightly worse than with MD girl only, because you might end up with only 94-98 shards after the end of the 6th booster. This means the 7th booster is not worth it, and you need to do some extra fights. If you always go for a 7th booster, you'd need 714 fights on average, as mathematically expected).

Comparing the cost difference:

On average:

- 4SP: +97 Fights or 1048 Kobans, 1 Charge remaining

- 6SP: +2 Boosters or 1080 Kobans, 0 Charge remaining

On 1% Low:

- 5SP: +94 Fights or 1015 Kobans, 7 Charges remaining

- 7SP: +2 Boosters or 1080 Kobans, 6 Charges remaining

On 1% High:

- 3SP: +100 Fights or 1080 Kobans, 0 Charge remaining

- 6SP: +3 Boosters or 1620 Kobans, 2 Charges remaining

Since these results don't match the math, even in the average case, I'll refine the simulation to also show when the Classic Event girl is obtained, and I'll add some extra results around the 10%, 25% and 35% high/low results. I'll also spend some more time properly testing it, as it's totally possible that I made some mistakes

Another thing to consider: if the values are really close (Like in the average case), using less boosters might be better, as you'll get more of the other rewards (Tickets, Orbs, Gems, Cash)

Edited February 7, 2022 by Liliat

[holymolly]

For the sake of completeness (I somehow can´t edit the post so a new comment it is ^^ @FinderKeeper maybe you can ?)

 

[FinderKeeper]

Done. 

Poll was giving an error about auto-closing at set date.

add: also it was auto inserting the attached image

[cfsego2019]

the left shards at the end of the event told the truth.

[blaa]

6 minutes ago, cfsego2019 said:

the left shards at the end of the event told the truth.

i havent heard them, what did they say? Maybe it's cause i deactivated sound for this game?