_shal_ Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 After fluking a regular boss girl on the 2nd battle during the anniversary, RNG finally decided to deliver Val Abrael to me after 285 battles. Hoping my luck picks up a bit, ~200 per girl on average would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master HornDog Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 I have a question what happen when you have a lot of the girls from the Villains are they replaced with others from the epic list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenken Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 (edited) Swing and a miss! 0 girl drops off bosses to this point, presently on track to have very lean success with this event. No offense, but I wish the 2nd Anniversary event had a little more generousity to it, like double drop rate off bosses or guaranteed 2 girls off epic pachinko for the duration of the event (just keeping with the 2 theme). I'm grateful for the access to the rare girls, but it'll do me no good if RNG is unkind. That said, happy two years Hentai Heroes! Edited July 26, 2018 by Tenken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Master HornDog said: I have a question what happen when you have a lot of the girls from the Villains are they replaced with others from the epic list? Nope, just those 21 to work from. I've seen a bunch of people start with already half (or more) obtained, and then get it down to almost none. Nothing new gets added to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master HornDog Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Just now, GeorgeMTO said: Nope, just those 21 to work from. I've seen a bunch of people start with already half (or more) obtained, and then get it down to almost none. Nothing new gets added to it. Okay Thanks. But that really sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkone Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 (edited) Guys, what do you think about drop rate, when villains have more than one event girl? Is this constant chance to drop some one and it does not depend on the quantity of girls? Or every girl has her own chance to drop, and the total chance is the sum of all individual chances? Edited July 26, 2018 by darkone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiron Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 minute ago, darkone said: Guys, what do you think about drop rate, when villains have more than one girl? Is this constant chance to drop some one? Or every girl has her own chance to drop, and the total chance is the sum of all individual chances? noone really knows, but most likely it is like more or less 1% to get a girl and then there is a second roll which girl you get... since it is said that event girls have their own flat drop rate, i would also say that regular and event girls have their own +/-1% each... but yeah, just my personal guessing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkone Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Skiron said: noone really knows, but most likely it is like more or less 1% to get a girl and then there is a second roll which girl you get... since it is said that event girls have their own flat drop rate, i would also say that regular and event girls have their own +/-1% each... but yeah, just my personal guessing... Ok, It looks fair. I just noticed that the first girl drops very quickly, the second a little longer, the third even longer and so on until the 5th. Maybe it's just a coincidence. Edited July 26, 2018 by darkone add some text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhd001144 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 (edited) 17 minutes ago, darkone said: Guys, what do you think about drop rate, when villains have more than one event girl? Is this constant chance to drop some one and it does not depend on the quantity of girls? Or every girl has her own chance to drop, and the total chance is the sum of all individual chances? Well, not sure i was fighting Finalmecia for months and i didn't get any girl ... Now i decided to use kobans and 10x performance and that's my result First try got Salem " i was fighting for months to get her " Fifth try got 2 girls at the same time Ninth try got 1 girl then 11 trying and nothing Edited July 26, 2018 by mhd001144 spl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Skiron said: ok, i start to get the point i guess the epic ones are the ones which have been pachinko-event-girls (mainly)? basically yes. music silvia is an exception, she's the only pachinko girl that is just rare. all other rare girls on the trolls are event boss girls. and as george already said, treasure and windia are perm pachinko girls. it is advisable to get them now so they don't reduce chances for event girls later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkone Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, mhd001144 said: Well, not sure i was fighting Finalmecia for months and i didn't get any girl ... Now i decided to use kobans and 10x performance and that's my result First try got Salem " i was fighting for months to get her " Fifth try got 2 girls at the same time Ninth try got 1 girl then 11 trying and nothing I was fighting Roko and here are my results: 16 battles to receive 1st +50 battles to 2nd +89 battles to 3rd +102 battles to 4th + ~200 battles to 5th. And also ~150 with no girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhd001144 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 minute ago, darkone said: I was fighting Roko and here are my results: 16 battles to receive 1st +50 battles to 2nd +89 battles to 3rd +102 battles to 4th + ~200 battles to 5th. And also ~150 with no girls. nice u got 5 girls i tried before Dark lord also but nothing i thought maybe if he's the lowest one will get something faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wertyu Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, darkone said: I was fighting Roko and here are my results: 16 battles to receive 1st +50 battles to 2nd +89 battles to 3rd +102 battles to 4th + ~200 battles to 5th. And also ~150 with no girls. Your doing alot better than me , just one event girl and 1 normal boss girl so far ,lost count of the number of refills your really lucky from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkone Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 minute ago, wertyu said: Your doing alot better than me , just one event girl and 1 normal boss girl so far ,lost count of the number of refills your really lucky from the looks of it. Yea, tomorrow luck was on my side, but 2 month ago I`ve done 800+ tries on festival event and received nothing ( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HentaiBro Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 14 minutes ago, darkone said: I was fighting Roko and here are my results: 16 battles to receive 1st +50 battles to 2nd +89 battles to 3rd +102 battles to 4th + ~200 battles to 5th. And also ~150 with no girls. That's lucky. Here are mine. I got Noella on fight 19. + 211 fights and didn't get any other girl so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sovereign RHB Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 22 minutes ago, darkone said: I was fighting Roko and here are my results: 16 battles to receive 1st +50 battles to 2nd +89 battles to 3rd +102 battles to 4th + ~200 battles to 5th. And also ~150 with no girls. Nice going. Here are my results: Fighting Freddy solely for about 160 fights (3 refills)...... nothing! boohoohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChyldeRoland Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 I got gork, union Elizabeth and deltra so far. No kobans spent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wertyu Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 minute ago, ChyldeRoland said: I got gork, union Elizabeth and deltra so far. No kobans spent Talk about rubbing salt into the wound., Only got Bunny's mother so far and that was after using a ton of refills. Well done hope your luck keeps going on for the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hentai_Heroe Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 hour ago, wertyu said: Talk about rubbing salt into the wound., Only got Bunny's mother so far and that was after using a ton of refills. Well done hope your luck keeps going on for the event. Same with me. I have used 3000 kobans for refills and got only two girls. So if your luck is bad kobans will not make it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiron Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 no kobans used so far and just got my first of the event: Bunny´s Mom! *searching for a nice carrot* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maldrake Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 mejor que yo vais, casi 3000 kobans y 0 chicas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lleibi Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 hour ago, wertyu said: Talk about rubbing salt into the wound., Only got Bunny's mother so far and that was after using a ton of refills. Well done hope your luck keeps going on for the event. If you want to feel better, after spending enough kobans in refills to pay for 3 10xEpic Pachinko spins (a total of more than 1000 battles this week), I didn't get a single event girl. I got 4 troll girls, though. Not a single event girl. I was doing some numbers: -if the drop rate is 1%, the probability of not getting a single girl after 1000 battles is 0.004% -if the drop rate is 0.5%, the probability of not getting a single girl after 1000 battles is 0.7% -if the drop rate is 0.1%, the probability of not getting a single girl after 1000 battles is 37% So, either I am a statistical improbability, or the drop rate is lower than 0.5%, or there is some factor affecting drop rates (for example, i have 82 girls and I have been consistently getting all the troll girls in the recent events). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiron Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Lleibi said: If you want to feel better, after spending enough kobans in refills to pay for 3 10xEpic Pachinko spins (a total of more than 1000 battles this week), I didn't get a single event girl. I got 4 troll girls, though. Not a single event girl. I was doing some numbers: -if the drop rate is 1%, the probability of not getting a single girl after 1000 battles is 0.004% -if the drop rate is 0.5%, the probability of not getting a single girl after 1000 battles is 0.7% -if the drop rate is 0.1%, the probability of not getting a single girl after 1000 battles is 37% So, either I am a statistical improbability, or the drop rate is lower than 0.5%, or there is some factor affecting drop rates (for example, i have 82 girls and I have been consistently getting all the troll girls in the recent events). after reading your thread i have recalculated my event: ive started with full 20 combat points into the event, since then i have used every single point, so 48 for one day and 39 for 19,5 hours... 107 tries total, first and only drop was the first of the last five tries in a row, means on the 103rd try... pretty much 1% drop chance, statistically spoken... and thats the thing... take a hundred sided dice and roll: you might get five 100s in a row or none at all in a thousand tries... statistics just calculate average values, no promised results... sadly... Edited July 26, 2018 by Skiron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lleibi Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, Skiron said: after reading your thread i have recalculated my event: ive started with full 20 combat points into the event, since then i have used every single point, so 48 for one day and 39 for 19,5 hours... 107 tries total, first and only drop was the first of the last five tries in a row, means on the 103rd try... pretty much 1% drop chance, statistically spoken... and thats the thing... take a hundred sided dice and roll: you might get five 100s in a row or none at all in a thousand tries... statistics just calculate average values, no promised results... sadly... I know, it's perfectly possible that I am indeed a case that only happens 0.004% of times. My own sample of 1000 battles is not a statistical sample. If the drop probability is 1% we would need 10,000 battles to test it with any reliability, and if the drop probability is 0.1%, then we would need 100,000 battles, to have made a statistically significant measure. And that is if the drop rate is a fixed flat rate for all event girls. If it is not, we'd need millions of battles worth of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiron Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lleibi said: I know, it's perfectly possible that I am indeed a case that only happens 0.004% of times. My own sample of 1000 battles is not a statistical sample. If the drop probability is 1% we would need 10,000 battles to test it with any reliability, and if the drop probability is 0.1%, then we would need 100,000 battles, to have made a statistically significant measure. And that is if the drop rate is a fixed flat rate for all event girls. If it is not, we'd need millions of battles worth of data. well, looking up the reports of players about 1% chance is very likely, some like me had one drop without refills, at given event time the average... a forum likes to mislead tho, since extreme results are more likely to be posted than the average ones and as you said yourself, the average value becomes more and more true the more tries are done... sadly most of us wont have the kobans to do "the proof"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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