Mihai Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Levitya is the only one worth getting (and not because I really like her, but because the artist who drew her is the competent one). And as such I get to keep my kobans (yay!). Also I would get Date Arianne just because the drawing quality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 1:54 PM, GeorgeMTO said: I would consider Dmytro more reliable than Zorba and as I said earlier, I do not consider Dmytro reliable. Without proof, ignore all of his ramblings for trying to calculate averages. Go back to sleep, and leave your own negative ramblings for another forum. I know I got a x9 drop because I paid particular attention to what was an obvious anomaly. Do I have to screen shot every single thing? It happened only the once right at the beginning of the event. If you haven't got anything good to say about anyone, then say nothing. It'd be the best thing for you and for everybody else other than a few of your acolytes who hang on your every word. On the drop rate and shard value drops, things have fallen away for me dramatically. In one account I managed to get Esperance before Norou dropped. It seems the drop rate (for me anyway) has settled down to something approaching normal and I'd be very unlikely to get all three girls from bosses before the end of the event, except in Peregrine Took. I am not spending kobans this event. Finally... Just so everybody knows once and for all, I didn't set up multiple accounts just so I could bombard the forum pretending to be someone else. The forum itself kept switching me from one account to another, all by itself. When Chthugha finally banned me from all but this account I was quite happy and I came to accept his reasoning, but my preferred account for the forum was Peregrine Took. The downside is that I have to do a cookie cleanout to get back on the forum when it tries to switch me to a banned account. The reason I raised this again is because it seems to have left a lingering resentment of me and a level of contempt in some of you, all based on something I was meant to have done on purpose, but most definitely didn't. I hope I can finally put this to bed. Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 (edited) The x9 drop would be possible but only at the very beginning of the event if kinkoid inadvertently set the maximum at that value and soon after that changed to the now established maximum of 8, as no other people has got more than that. Or could be a bug. Edited February 5, 2020 by jelom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 21 minutes ago, Zorba the Geek said: Go back to sleep, and leave your own negative ramblings for another forum. I know I got a x9 drop because I paid particular attention to what was an obvious anomaly. Do I have to screen shot every single thing? It happened only the once right at the beginning of the event. If you haven't got anything good to say about anyone, then say nothing. It'd be the best thing for you and for everybody else other than a few of your acolytes who hang on your every word. Several days in, no one else has posted about getting one, but many 1s through to 8s that I have seen mentioned in various places. I'll continue to doubt it happened. 24 minutes ago, Zorba the Geek said: When Chthugha finally banned me from all but this account I was quite happy You really weren't. You quit the forum over it. Funnily enough this very same...inconsistent view of the facts is why I find you an unreliable source for info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 5, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said: Several days in, no one else has posted about getting one, but many 1s through to 8s that I have seen mentioned in various places. I'll continue to doubt it happened. For the record, exactly one other player mentioned having a drop higher than 8 in this event, but it's not very convincing either. It's a pretty new player who joined my club last month, and not only did he not take a screenshot, he doesn't remember the exact drop he got, and said it was "either a 10 or 11" (also at the very beginning of the event). He mentioned this only in our club chat, but I forgot to bring it up because, well, it's not solid. My best guess at this point is that Zorba and him might both be right, but that they only had abnormal drops because something was off at the very beginning, and it was fixed shortly thereafter, which would explain why no one had a drop over 8% since then. So, at best, this further confirms that the reliable, long-term new drop range for this event format is indeed 1-8 as we've all been experiencing for the past few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said: For the record, exactly one other player mentioned having a drop higher than 8 in this event, but it's not very convincing either. It's a pretty new player who joined my club last month, and not only did he not take a screenshot, he doesn't remember the exact drop he got, and said it was "either a 10 or 11" (also at the very beginning of the event). He mentioned this only in our club chat, but I forgot to bring it up because, well, it's not solid. My best guess at this point is that Zorba and him might both be right, but that they only had abnormal drops because something was off at the very beginning, and it was fixed shortly thereafter, which would explain why no one had a drop over 8% since then. So, at best, this further confirms that the reliable, long-term new drop range for this event format is indeed 1-8 as we've all been experiencing for the past few days. Is said club member definitely using the single battle? We've had some new players not know the difference in the past, so I've seen reports of 21 shards in revivals before with no screenshot (which is either x10, or dyslexia). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 5, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 5, 2020 32 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said: Is said club member definitely using the single battle? We've had some new players not know the difference in the past, so I've seen reports of 21 shards in revivals before with no screenshot (which is either x10, or dyslexia). He claims to, but I can't be 100% sure, as he's still learning the ropes. That's the first thing I asked him, as someone in the FR forum claimed super high drops during Foreplay, and posted screenshots that showed he was using x10 and didn't understand what we meant by "a drop". ^^ Doesn't really matter anyway, whether his experience and Zorba's are true or fuzzy memories, they're clearly not something that's been happening since the very first few hours of the event (not even to the two of them). So it's safe to say that these shouldn't be taken into account either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said: He claims to, but I can't be 100% sure, as he's still learning the ropes. That's the first thing I asked him, as someone in the FR forum claimed super high drops during Foreplay, and posted screenshots that showed he was using x10 and didn't understand what we meant by "a drop". ^^ Doesn't really matter anyway, whether his experience and Zorba's are true or fuzzy memories, they're clearly not something that's been happening since the very first few hours of the event (not even to the two of them). So it's safe to say that these shouldn't be taken into account either way. is he sure he isn't still trying to get girls from Gruntt or Dark Lord as well >,< Those can drop higher amount of shards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 5, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, Chthugha said: is he sure he isn't still trying to get girls from Gruntt or Dark Lord as well >,< Those can drop higher amount of shards. He seems sure, but again, he's not the most reliable source of information. I just mentioned him because it made me think of Zorba's tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 (edited) Has anyone noticed that 1-2-3 shard drops are less frequent than high drops? Maybe higher shards have a bigger drop rate than smaller shards? Four days is short time but as of now on two accounts (I have also been maintaining Nutaku to test the drops) I have not had a single 1-shard drop. There have been a few 2-3 shard drops. Right now in the account that I keep track of there have been 25 shard drops. 2 shards 2 times 3 shards 2 times 4 shards 4 times 5 shards 6 times 6 shards 5 times 7 shards 3 times 8 shards 3 times I have not kept track of Nutaku that well but I am 100% sure I have had zero 1-shard drops. Otherwise the ratio is about the same: 2-3 shards have dropped about 15% of the time, 4-8 shards 85% of the time. The average should be about 30% for 1-3 shard drops. (I don't want to split 1-4 and 5-8 shards because if they really varied the shard drops, I somehow feel that lowering only 1 or 1-2 or at the most 1-2-3 shard chances would make more sense - as we know from champion award drops, the game already practices lower RNG chances for some awards (champions) and higher for others (grimy pictures) Just good luck on two accounts or has someone noticed something similar? And yes, I know 4 days is really too short time. Edited February 5, 2020 by jaybee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaa Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 hours ago, jaybee said: Just good luck on two accounts or has someone noticed something similar? And yes, I know 4 days is really too short time. I also havent had a drop with 1 shard so far and only one drop with 2. I guess my stats are similar to yours, but then I am on an average on almost 20 fights for a drop, so not a lot of data generated by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Also no 1-shard drops so far. I'm waiting for the first picture showing one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 6, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Chthugha said: Also no 1-shard drops so far. I'm waiting for the first picture showing one. Oh, I had quite a few (and also 2%, 3% etc.). The range is definitely 1-8, not 2-8 or 4-8 or anything crazy like that. I'll take a screenshot the next time I get a low roll on a drop. Now, jaybee's theory seems to be that they implemented some mechanic to make the drop amount pseudo-random within the range (with a higher chance to land on the upper half) instead of purely random as it has seemingly always been. That's much harder to confirm either way. We'd need to start running tests or taking notes of individual drops over a big sample size to start seeing a pattern (or lack thereof). It sounds a bit too good to be true, though. Edited February 6, 2020 by DvDivXXX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Chthugha said: Also no 1-shard drops so far. I'm waiting for the first picture showing one. shal also reported one on discord, although again no screenshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmytro Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Piqued by Zorba's message of a 9 shard drop, I started recording my shard drops (in both GH and HH): 4,5,7,3,2,8,6,3,7,3,5,7,4,8,4,4,4,6,5,2,8,3,6,8,4,2,7,6,4,4,5,6. No ones and no nines so far (though I had a 1 earlier); the average drop was 5.0. It might be worth to pay attention to drop sizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~Crown Clown Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 For me too, not a single 1-shard drop yet I hope they implement this too in the 12 shard events, cause 1 and 12 have very huge difference and it's very frustrating when you get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Around here, one only 2 shard drop and zero 1 shard drops 👍 Not that I'm complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 in any case 1-shard drops seem to be extremely hard to achieve just as hard as 9 shards, so they seem almost mythical if anyone spotted a 9, it seemed to be in the first day and maybe was patched later is the same true for 1 shard? has anyone got a 1 after the first day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said: shal also reported one on discord, although again no screenshot. It had a screenshot actually though that one-shard drop was achieved via x10. (And test server, if that matters.) My main account also hasn't had any 1's in 34 drops. Edit: This was it, around 9 hours after the event had started on Saturday. Edited February 6, 2020 by _shal_ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 @_shal_ your images are not shown in your latest posts (or it's me that cannot see them). I can only see "unkonwn.png" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, jelom said: @_shal_ your images are not shown in your latest posts (or it's me that cannot see them). I can only see "unkonwn.png" I see it just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Solved, it was privacy badger blocking images from cdn.discord.app 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 6, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, jaybee said: is the same true for 1 shard? has anyone got a 1 after the first day? I must admit that I don't remember. I'm sure it was on Levitya, which is the first girl I went for, so it's entirely possible that my 1-shard drops were in fact on the first day. I tried to take one (haha) for the team last night (and I also needed just a little boost to win that first 300-koban contest, so I went for it on Norou). In over 140 fights, I had a whole bunch of 2s, at least a couple of 3s, and a bit of everything else including one 8, but not even one 1... So, I dunno. You might be on to something. Or we've just all been really lucky after day 1 of the event. I'll keep an eye on it, and I imagine some of you guys will as well, so whoever gets the "lucky" 1% gets first post-fix screenshot bragging rights. ^^ Edited February 6, 2020 by DvDivXXX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 It's impossible to be this lucky, collectively. Someone with math skills can calculate how much of an improvement the 2-8 shard range (all the numbers in equal measures), is compared to 1-6. At least it's an improvement psychologically. Even if 2 is the new 1, you feel that at least you got something when you get a 2. Even when you know that it's impossible to do worse than 2 shards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 6, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 6, 2020 Definitely. Even getting a 1 when the range is 1-3 feels worse than getting a 2 when the range is higher than that. And I won't risk doing the maths, but I'd be surprised if 2-8 isn't significantly better than 1-8 (let alone 1-6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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