strategy Awakenings & Leagues - Comparing Different Strategies

[45026831]

1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:

It's always been the case in the old battle system, more or less (always with an error margin due to RNG and to exact battle mechanics' intricacies not being officially revealed, only always reverse-engineered by expert players, especially those with a hand in HH++ in general and its sims in particular). Since the switch to BDSM and Awakenings and Blessings and tons more variables, the old sims failed a significant number of times for months, with quite a lot of cases in which the script gave the green light for a likely loss (when checked by a human) and even more frequently a red light for what was actually an almost sure win (again if checked closely with a good player's human eyes). @Tom208's version partially made up for this by using a very conservative "worst case scenario" sim by default (giving the estimate for only 1 crit for you and 2 for your opponent, IIRC). But it wasn't perfect, still, obviously.

However, Numbers @45026831 changed the sims for his version a few months ago to probabilistic ones, and likely fine-tuned them beyond that (and they also give an exact list of how likely each possible outcome is estimated by % instead of just a global estimate of the expected average as before); since then, it's been very reliable overall.

Just to add to this, a little history of the battle system and the sim:

1) Prior to BDSM, in the old system, the opponent could only trigger their class special once during the fight. Therefore the sim would assume no player special and that the opponent special would happen at the worst possible time for the player (Wild Burst on orgasm turn, Narcissism on player's orgasm turn, Reassurance at the very beginning of the fight). This produced a consistently conservative estimate.

2) Once BDSM came in and the class specials disappeared, opponents could crit more than once, so the old sim was no longer fit for purpose. I cant take credit for the probabilistic sim, that came from a github user named 0renge via a pull request in August 2021. That sim was incredibly elegant and it's a shame it's no longer viable. It worked out the probabilities using some very clever maths, which worked well as a crit was just the equivalent of taking 2 turns at once.

3) October 2021: Once Elements came in, the fire (crit damage) and water (heal-on-hit) bonuses made the probabilistic sim no longer viable. I ended up having to rewrite it into a stochastic sim instead, so now it simulates the battle 10,000 times (50,000 in high precision mode) and then lists out the percentage results. This is the only one I can claim to have written. The biggest problem with it now is how slow it is, which I'd like to address but is a non-trivial problem.

[Kenrae]

10 hours ago, 45026831 said:

3) October 2021: Once Elements came in, the fire (crit damage) and water (heal-on-hit) bonuses made the probabilistic sim no longer viable. I ended up having to rewrite it into a stochastic sim instead, so now it simulates the battle 10,000 times (50,000 in high precision mode) and then lists out the percentage results. This is the only one I can claim to have written. The biggest problem with it now is how slow it is, which I'd like to address but is a non-trivial problem.

And it's great. And maybe the only feasible approach with the new system.

Don't you guys simulate with different girls to see different results? The answers are there, really . FWIW, my elemental ordering would be:

1. Black
2. Blue
3. Orange
4. Red
5. Green
6. White
7. Purple
8. Yellow

But of course things can be very situational. The only clear thing is that black is *always* great and useful (heck, it even makes you heal more because it's a percentage of damage done).

Sensual, like the KH class of old, is not that great if all you care about is winning battles. But it's great to maximize your points in the league. It starts to shine when you approach an expected score of 23 against an opponent, adding some sensual girls into the mix makes wonders. I always have a sensual team saved to simulate with it.

[Rarum]

This seems to be now a talking point, so I'll also give my current thoughts on how good the different elements are.

Almost a month ago, I gave a list to @zoopokemon about how many times different elements have appeared in my team recommendations. Sometimes, less so nowadays, teams are just listed as "overall best", so it's not a quite correct list, but we can still gain some knowledge from it. Also note that for the most part, I don't consider teams that only have one girl of an element. Anyway:

• Water: 1577
• Darkness: 904 (we had an elemental blessing)
• Nature: 463 (we had an elemental blessing)
• Stone: 433
• Fire: 425
• Sun: 268 (we had an elemental blessing)
• Psychic: 153 (we had an elemental blessing)
• Light: 96

We had the following elemental blessings during the observational period:

1. Dominatrix on 11/1/2021 until 11/8/2021
2. Playful on 11/29/2021 until 12/6/2021
3. Voyeur on 12/13/2021 until 12/20/2021
4. Exhibitionist on 1/17/2022 until 1/24/2022.

I went through the trouble of subtracting the affected data points, and got this:

• Water: 1136
• Darkness: 613
• Nature: 371 (still do note I miss nature mythics)
• Fire: 342 (also note I haven't had access to a fully upgraded Alexa)
• Stone: 328
• Sun: 186
• Psychic: 34
• Light: 29

Sun still is maybe over-represented, and it looks like on the week 12/6/2021 until 12/13/2021, two sun girls were the very best raw power ones even though it wasn't an elemental blessing. If we discount that week as well, we get:

• Water: 967
• Darkness: 595
• Nature: 342
• Stone: 298
• Fire: 291
• Sun: 35
• Psychic: 29
• Light: 29

So as you can see, the outcome depends quite a bit also on which girls happen to be the most powerful in a given week, when we have only this few weeks in our comparison. I wouldn't be surprised if nature also had something similar as sun going on.

So really the most I can get from this is that roughly speaking there are three "power categories" for the elements:

First is the water and darkness, situational which one you want to prioritize more (and water is near useless in something like the Pantheon xx00 floors).

The second power block encompasses nature, stone and fire. There's too little data to meaningfully put these into any order.

Last, there are the trash elements that are only good if those girls happen to be among the most powerful ones for the week: sun, psychic and light. Or *sometimes* if you can counter an element with them, but even then it's not a guarantee that they should be used.

[Liliat]

So, Water beats Eccentric, but because of B.D.S.M. bonus, it can be beaten by Yellow? (Especially on Sunny days)

🤡

Edited February 16, 2022 by Liliat

[lepidocter]

(I hope no one at KK will notice that the power scale of elements is just 'cause they inverted the domination scheme, or most of your long term strategies could be wasted).

[blaa]

no worries, main power still comes from blessed girls not so much from which element they have; that's mostly for optimasation play

Edited February 17, 2022 by blaa

[Kenrae]

Still, they could make Playful, Voyeur and Submissive to give 0.1% and 3% instead of what they give now. And they would still be the worst but less so.

[Rarum]

I would be okay with buffing the weaker elements. Making the playing field more complicated gives advantage to those with the computational power to churn through it all... Wait, hmm, for the benefit of the playerbase who wants to see more girls see some action, I mean. No ulterior motives here at all.

But yeah, the playful element for instance is so weak it's all too often beneficial not to use it even if it's countering a water team. And that's like the one concrete thing that players would normally be able to rely on, that countering is beneficial.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Rarum

[Slynia]

I see my name has been mentioned a few times in this thread, hello everyone! 🤗

Of course, my tier list is just what I said in that thread, a list of the "generally" best elements. Meaning that without taking blessings into account, that is the tier list you should go for if you wanna go into your fights blind (do no micromanaging) and still get the best results out of it.

Simple as that

Oh and also, voyeur is just as bad as playful, but voyeur has a better purpose (increasing your crit chance and decreasing the opponent's crit chance) while playful does the same thing (but worse) as dominatrix EXCEPT that it doesn't increase our damage when we crit, something dominatrix does. The only time a non crit with playful does more damage than dominatrix is when the opponent's defense is higher than your own damage, which is a lost cause anyway.

So playful is just 💩