[ October 23rd, 2022 ] MDR #13 - Royal Housemaid ⚫

[Julius Fox]

Well, I guess I could just repost my rant from last Mythic Revival because nothing's changed. 2 straight revivals on Jackson's Crew is rough for mid-game players. I'd been looking forward to High Mage Arcana and Royal Housemaid for months and I'll end up with neither. Mythics are my main focus in the game (I don't care as much about collecting every 3 star girl so I usually skip PoV and PoA paid paths to save kobans for Mythics) and Royal Housemaid is one of my favorites art-wise, so it's extra painful. I'm really sad right now. 😭

Edited October 23, 2022 by Julius Fox

[F-L-K]

2 hours ago, Antimon said:

I wouldn't want to say "I told you so", but well...

I told you so 😅

I definitely expected it for this MDR, they never fail to disappoint. What's weird is why did they totally skip Karole? 

[Bobick]

6 hours ago, Zteev said:

I'm going to recommend that anyone who doesn't have tier 1 clear to run this event without perfume

I think there is nothing wrong with using SP boosters on Jackson's tier 1.

I actually did it for both Jackson and Pandora. After not being able to clear tier 1 before reaching tier 2 for Roko and Karole, I used 6 perfumes each on Jackson and Pandora and tried to time reaching tier 2 exactly in the moment tier 1 was cleared. Each perfume saves on average 5.5 regular drops - if the drop rate is 10%, this saves 55 CPs (same value as 1 SP), if it is even 5% as jelom assumes, it saves 110 CPs (much more valuable than 1 SP). Without having data samples, my impression was as well that the drop rate is at least below 10%

On the first glance it might seem absurd to spend kobans on girls who can be obtained for free over time, but it helps to avoid using unnecessary CPs on tier 1. The saved CPs are already enough to get the tier 2 girl, which speeds up the overall progress. This strategy is certainly worth discussing, but, as I said, it at least does not appear to be completely wrong to use perfumes on tier 1.

Edit: I corrected the figures above, for the case someone would use them as reference. In an older version of this post I stated, 1 SP would save on average 4.25 regular drops (=2.5 shards per drop, drop range 1-4). However, the drop range for Jackson and Pandora is 1-3 (=2 shards per drop on average). Figures look even better now.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Bobick

[DvDivXXX]

2 hours ago, jelom said:

Unless someone offer new data samples, the drop rate for Tier 1 of last villains must be estimated around 5%

Could you define "last villains"? Jackson's Crew is on World 12. We've just closed World 16 (so World 17 should open up in a couple of weeks). There are 4 villains after them (and a 5th soon). Moreover, it's a part of the older batch who received multiple Tiers before they seemingly dropped the idea after Pandora. Where do you draw the line? And what data backs this estimation up (aside from your own samples)? It's just a pretty wild change I'm shocked I had neither noticed nor even heard about before today. Maybe someone ran a bunch of tests and/or data collection project and that's common knowledge for a part of the Discord community by now (and maybe that's why both Zoo and you seem to find my reservations about this obviously wrong)... but it's news to me, at least. So yeah, I'd like to know more. I can split this into a separate thread if need be. Thanks.

[F-L-K]

Can you guys draw an estimation from the info I gave earlier? total shards I had & current level of vilain?

[bolitho76]

It seems the 5% is a confirmed droprate when shal works with it.

[madahmed]

i have 1 shard on Riley, 0 on Piper and 2 shards on Hanna.

From now i will collect data about them  and when i get them i will share the information.

[DvDivXXX]

6 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

It seems the 5% is a confirmed droprate when shal works with it.

(I'd still like to know at which villain the drop rate starts getting halved; but okay it seems that the 5% is actually a thing. It's just weird that this never popped up on the forum before). 👍

[F-L-K]

Ok I did the math & correct me if I'm wrong in something
Jackson starting level is 150, I'm at 284 so I got 134 = 1340 CP
Assuming the drop rate is the same for girls whatever the rarety or if other event girls are there
I got total of 145 shards for all 3 girls
so drop rate for me is 145/1340 = 0.108... so 10% right?

 

[bolitho76]

I hadn't collected data for permanent girls because to me it wasn't a thing: They are permanent and don't change the dropchances for event girls so... As the SP Booster were introduced and the dropchance for permanent girls starts to become relevant for other players I was collecting girls from Worlds which are wide above the worlds they add MD/MDR girls until now.

 

13 minutes ago, F-L-K said:

so drop rate for me is 145/1340 = 0.108... so 10% right?

You got 145 shards, but not 145 drops. Shardrange is 1-3, so an average of 2. More correct: 145 Shards with an average drop of 2 are ca. 73 drops; 73/1340 are 0,0,0544 and so a little bit better than 5%

Edited October 23, 2022 by bolitho76

[Antimon]

1 ora fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto:

(I'd still like to know at which villain the drop rate starts getting halved; but okay it seems that the 5% is actually a thing. It's just weird that this never popped up on the forum before). 👍

just checked on the shard drop topic 'cause I remeber I asked that myself at the time I religiously kept track of my drops and found this two comments by @jelomand @_shal_

 

The first villain with a 5% drop rate in tier 1 appears to be Sylvanus (so from the very beginning of the second page of the world map). The situation gets funnier and funnier progressing in the later worlds cause the drop range in tier 1 decrease more and more. In my personal spreadsheet, I see that my Pandora's drop rate is at just a little over 3% (3,01%) in more than 600 total fights (631), but it is over 2 years I'm not updating my data, so I do not know how reliable it could be

4 ore fa, F-L-K ha scritto:

I definitely expected it for this MDR, they never fail to disappoint. What's weird is why did they totally skip Karole? 

 About Karole, I'm pretty sure she had an increased usage, too, but more focused on old legendaries and orgy days 

Edited October 23, 2022 by Antimon

[F-L-K]

So with it being confirmed at 5%, then it should take 8 SP instead of 5 from a "crowded" Villan . That's 270 additional kobans to the average 1260 it costs for 700 CP
Seems not that bad. Tho the more free CP I have saved the higher the extra cost % gets

Edited October 23, 2022 by F-L-K

[Bobick]

12 minutes ago, F-L-K said:

So with it being confirmed at 5%, then it should take 8 SP instead of 5 from a "crowded" Villan . That's 270 additional kobans to the average 1260 it costs for 700 CP
Seems not that bad.

Yes, right. If you have 8 SPs, go for it. As said above, 3 SPs on Jackson's tier 1 are worth spending anyhow.

[jelom]

Well, @Antimon saved me the time to search through the villains drop rate thread.

As for why @DvDivXXX didin't recalled this issue discussed, well, at the time those posts were written he was probably starting in the game so perhaps he didn't read all the thousands of old posts of the forum. Add to this that the villains drop rate thread is more of a container for data points than a place for discussion, and the drop rate decrease for later villains issue was only briefly talked there.

Perhaps I should made a new post there with a summary of my data, or finally compile a spreadsheet with all the players data resumed as we did in the former old preshard drop rate thread (I am becoming a bit lazy to spend many hours doing that, so I won't promise it).

End of the issue for me, I won't post anymore in this thread as I have Royal Housemaid from before.

[430i]

3 hours ago, F-L-K said:

I definitely expected it for this MDR, they never fail to disappoint. What's weird is why did they totally skip Karole? 

Because they are trying to milk the young whales, instead of catering to their median-level players

[zoopokemon]

9 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

are you the one who wrote the bot's text, @zoopokemon?

I didn't write that, and it does need updating for better clarity and completeness. But, as has already been stated there's been multiple reports on the discord and forum that the later villains have a drop rate below 10%, closer to 5%. My own data since I started tracking it for Jackson's Crew has all been around 6%.

[Ravi-Sama]

Royal Housemaid ⚫: 95% shards (1 old shard)
Drops: 47 drops
Total CP used: 795 CP (139 free & 656 bought)
Drop Rate: 5.91%
Stored CP: 103 CP
CP Regen: 36 CP (15 hours + 6 CP from Daily Goals)
Bought CP: 656 CP (7085 kos)
SP: 5 SP
Time Left: 1 day 9 hrs (72 CP regen)
Kobans Left: 2678 kos (+ 150 kos tomorrow; can buy 261 CP)
Drops Needed: 3
Max CP available: 333
Worst possible drop rate: 0.09%
Worst possible overall drop rate: 4.43%

I think I'll definitely get her tomorrow.  Just need 3 drops from the remaining 72 CP regen.

I'm kind of a "data collection" noob, but I'll share what I know about Jackson's drop rates, shard ranges, MDR costs, etc.

We did talk about Jackson having a 5% drop rate last month (Sept), during High Mage Arcana's MDR.  @Mighty Thor had a 5% drop rate.  I asked about it, thinking it should've been a 10% drop rate, and was shown the 5-10% info.  It seems from @Antimon's post about @_shal_'s post, that Silvanus is the first villain w/ the 5% rate instead of 10% (the first late villain).  He's just the 6th boss, so that's kinda weird, but w/e.  I assume all events that drop shards from villains (besides MD/MDR), are at 10%.

In @F-L-K's situation, it does make sense to use SP at tier 1.  Since, the drops from the MDR, and the tier 1 girls are separate, and independent, w/ 5% (tier 1) and 6.8% (MDR) drop rates, it'll cost the same amount of CP to get Royal Housemaid, but ~3 more SP.

8 hours ago, F-L-K said:

Ok I did the math & correct me if I'm wrong in something
Jackson starting level is 150, I'm at 284 so I got 134 = 1340 CP
Assuming the drop rate is the same for girls whatever the rarety or if other event girls are there
I got total of 145 shards for all 3 girls
so drop rate for me is 145/1340 = 0.108... so 10% right?

To correct this, shards/CP isn't how you find a drop rate.  It's Drops/CP.  Since the shard range at tier 1 is 1-3 shards, the avg shards per drop is 2 shards.  If you got 145 shards total, from 1340 CP, then it was from 145/2 drops, or ~73 drops.  73/1340=0.05447 or a 5.4% drop rate.

Crap, @bolitho76 explained this already, lol.  W/e, I'll leave it in.  Thanks Bolitho76.

17 hours ago, F-L-K said:

they are at 56,34,55 shards & jackson is lvl 283... I don't think I can finish them before brute forcing housemaid to 100

You need 155 shards to clear out tier 1.  Since the avg shards per drop are 2 shards, that'll take ~78 drops.  At a 5% drop rate, that's 1560 CP. 

You have Jackson at lvl 283, needing 670 CP to unlock tier 2 (lvl 350; 10 CP per boss level up).  By the time you spend 670 CP (whilst using SP) to unlock tier 2, you'll have gotten ~44 drops for Royal Housemaid (assuming ~6.5% drop rate), and ~34 drops from the tier 1 girls.  You'll have about 88 shards already for RH, but it would've costed ~7.09 SP, instead of 5 SP.  Then, you should switch to tier 2, since there's just 1 girl there, Balista, w/ a 1-4 shard range.  You'll only need ~6 more drops for RH, needing ~93 more CP.  You'll also probably get ~5 drops from Balista w/ 100 CP.  11 drops total in tier 2, for ~8 SP total needed to get Royal Housemaid in your current situation.

To summarize, you can use 670 CP & ~7 SP in tier 1, until you unlock tier 2.  Then, use ~93 CP & 1 SP in tier 2 to recruit Royal Housemaid.  ~770 CP total (6.5% drop rate) & ~8.09 SP, costing 8316 kos for the CP, and 4320 kos for the 8 SP, at 12,636 kos total.  That's a lot, if you didn't already have 8 SP.  That's why I suggested just using free regen, at tier 1, to slowly clear out tier 1, for free, and try again next year.  You'll also get some shards for RH, at least 7 shards, or 14 if you use 1 SP.  If you have the 8 SP, give it a shot.  That's my estimate.  It supports @Bobick's estimate.

11 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

Well, I guess I could just repost my rant from last Mythic Revival because nothing's changed. 2 straight revivals on Jackson's Crew is rough for mid-game players. I'd been looking forward to High Mage Arcana and Royal Housemaid for months and I'll end up with neither. Mythics are my main focus in the game (I don't care as much about collecting every 3 star girl so I usually skip PoV and PoA paid paths to save kobans for Mythics) and Royal Housemaid is one of my favorites art-wise, so it's extra painful. I'm really sad right now. 😭

Damn, it happened again.  That sucks.  You probably have a ton of resources saved up now, worth 2x M6s.  Hopefully, you can use it on some girls in Nov. and Dec.

It's a good idea for everyone to clear out tier 1 girls from every boss you have unlocked.  I've been doing that w/ Nike.  Just have 1 girl left there, and was farming Dom gems there, in prep for this MDR anyway. 

• 13. Nike: Sabira 67%.
• 14. Sake: Alt. Demetria 23%, and Alt Mala 56%. 
• 15. Werebunny Police: Minuh 25%, Knickers 20%, and Laura 13%.

The rest of my tier 1s from bosses 1-12 are clear. 

I heard we're getting another world added in 2 weeks.  I'm not quite caught up to the end of the story yet, so I'll have to wait to fight the new 16th boss.  I'm 14/23 scrolls through WereSquid Island.  Hopefully, the 16th boss will drop 25 sensual gems, so I can farm there instead of w/ Finalmecia.  I need a lot of those gems for the 3x sensual M6s I'm missing (28.2k sensual gems).  I'll need ~1128 drops of 25  🔵 gems, at an 8.89% gem drop rate, that'll take 12,688 CP, lol.  I currently earn ~1193 sensual gems per week.  Using those two pieces of info, I estimate it'll take me less than 6 months.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Ravi-Sama

[Yamiray]

I've got her from 5 to 95 shards today, I think I can go with normal regen at this point

[Antimon]

10 ore fa, Ravi-Sama ha scritto:

It seems from @Antimon's post about @_shal_'s post, that Silvanus is the first villain w/ the 5% rate instead of 10% (the first late villain).  He's just the 5th boss, so that's kinda weird, but w/e.  I assume all events that drop shards from villains (besides MD/MDR), are at 10%.

To be completely fair, in hindsight this Sylvanus fact shouldn't be that surprising. Villains are designed to get "stingier" in giving out shards for their permanent girls the more one advances in the story worlds progression.

This happens in the first worlds simply by lowering the drop range of subsequent villains. dvancing from Donatien to Sylvanus, though, we pass from a 1-7 drop range to a 1-8 drop range. Having a worse drop rate to balance the slightly better drop average would succeed in mantaining this "stingification" of the villains. 

For this exact same reason, I wouldn't be that surprised if someone would say to me that jackson, pandora, nike, sake and werebunny police all have a progressively worse drop rate (even if by just a tiny bit). My jackson's crew and pandora's drop rates were tragic, let's not talk about nike's (I'm still struggling with her), but I do not have precise, complete and statistically significant data for these three (and absolutly zero data for the last two) for me to be able to confidently affirm this, so this could be indeed a "conspiracy theory" of mine, but still...

But let's return on track now. Sylvanus now is "just" the 6th boss, but when the shard system was introduced, we were in ninja sacred lands (if not still in the heroes university). He was the first villain of the second half of the available villains, so, with "that time" perspective, not exactly an early game fellow

Edited October 24, 2022 by Antimon

[Julius Fox]

3 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

It's a good idea for everyone to clear out tier 1 girls from every boss you have unlocked.  I've been doing that w/ Nike.  Just have 1 girl left there, and was farming Dom gems there, in prep for this MDR anyway.

Yeah I've been doing the same, but it takes so effing long! I've been throwing all my non-event CP at Fredy's Tier 1 for the last couple months even though red gems are my least needed. I'm almost done clearing it - I have Mavin at 92 shards. But then I have to start all over with Karole and Jackson's Crew (which I just unlocked a couple weeks ago). 😓

 

6 hours ago, F-L-K said:

So with it being confirmed at 5%, then it should take 8 SP instead of 5 from a "crowded" Villan . That's 270 additional kobans to the average 1260 it costs for 700 CP
Seems not that bad. Tho the more free CP I have saved the higher the extra cost % gets

 

6 hours ago, Bobick said:

Yes, right. If you have 8 SPs, go for it. As said above, 3 SPs on Jackson's tier 1 are worth spending anyhow.

Are you guys saying that 8 SP would be enough to get Royal Housemaid + the 3 Tier 1 Girls even if I'm starting at 0 shards for each girl? I'm not as analytically minded as most of you and sometimes have trouble following the numbers (🤪), but if that's the case I might consider it since I've been hoarding SPs.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Julius Fox

[Ravi-Sama]

1 hour ago, Julius Fox said:

Are you guys saying that 8 SP would be enough to get Royal Housemaid + the 3 Tier 1 Girls even if I'm starting at 0 shards for each girl? I'm not as analytically minded as most of you and sometimes have trouble following the numbers (🤪), but if that's the case I might consider it since I've been hoarding SPs.

I was specifically addressing F-L-K's situation. He's close to unlocking tier 2, and has ~half of the shards for tier 1. 

Surprisingly, it applies to any situation vs. Jackson's crew.

Let's say you have 0 shards for Jackson's tier 1 girls, and 0 for Royal Housemaid.

Assuming, you'll need to spend 760 CP for RH, at ~6.58% drop rate, using SP.

The tier 1 drop rate is 5%.  In the process of using 760 CP, you'll get 38 drops for the tier 1 girls.

You need enough SP for 50 drops for RH, and 38 drops for the tier 1 girls.

8 SP is enough for 88 drops.  Since, you hoard SP, you should be fine then.  I'm glad you asked to clarify.  Good luck!

If Jackson's Crew had a 10% drop rate instead, and tier 1 was full, it'd take 12 SP to do the same thing.  The lower drop rate is a blessing in disguise.

760 CP = 8208 kos
8 SP = 4320 kos
Total = 12528 kos

[DvDivXXX]

Sincere thanks to you folks for helping me learn and understand stuff that was shockingly new to me even though it's been established before I even started the game. That's always very much welcomed and appreciated. I did read a whole lot of the ancient threads when I started out in mid-19 but I'll admit pure data threads are not the most eye-catching stuff to me, and by the time this knowledge would have been relevant to me, it wasn't brought up on the forum again until today (and now it's no longer super relevant to me, as I've cleared all tiers of all villains already and I'll grind the upcoming one right away.... hmm, actually I might burn a few SPs on it armed with with what I've learned from this thread; we'll see). ❤️ 

[F-L-K]

7 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

The lower drop rate is a blessing in disguise.

exactly my thought, but shush! KK are listening & tomorrow they will announce increased drop rates as a curse in disguise "cheers players we love you so we doubled the drop rates *wink* *wink*"

 

Tho I'm not sure about the T1 strat, because as it happens, it was easier for me to clear T2 after unlocking it (I think starting from sylvanus actually cuz he levels up so fast) than getting all T1 girls, which also gave more money & progress to T3 for maoor money. 

But I'm not sure about the later villains when T1 give gifts & xp instead of money, are those better or worse than the money of T2?

 

Edited October 24, 2022 by F-L-K

[DvDivXXX]

16 minutes ago, F-L-K said:

But I'm not sure about the later villains when T1 give gifts & xp instead of money, are those better or worse than the money of T2?

Once you've cleared the girls form all tiers, going back to Tier 1 for Karole, Jackson and Pandora makes sense imho. Sure, a lot of those random gifts and books are common or rare, but that's still something more impactful in the long run than the tiny bit of Ymen/cash you get from villains everywhere else. If you go back to farming a specific villain after clearing all their girls (and outside of an event girl being placed on them), it will typically be for the gems they can drop anyway. Might as well get the occasional epic or even legendary gift or book in the process.

PS: As far as I'm aware (so given the previous discussion and revelations for me, take this with a pinch of salt ^^), the drop rates are the same on all Tier 2 and 3 and from my own experience alone (again I've seen no data or theory on this so far) I expect it's likely the standard 10% drop rate. In any case, reaching Tier 2 or 3 took much longer than clearing the girl(s) on the previous tier for me.

[Ravi-Sama]

Recruited Royal Housemaid ⚫.  The last 3 drops took just 19 CP.

Got 50 drops from 810 CP (656 bought, & 154 free), for a modest 6.17% drop rate.

Costing 7085 kos, plus 2700 kos for 5 SP.  9785 kos total.

There were only a few instances, where it took more than 50 CP for a drop, which made it stress free this time.

I gained at least 200k GXP & ~70 MPx1s, from fighting Jackson's Crew at tier 1.  Used all the GXP already...

Had 1 old shard, probably for dating tokens, but it didn't make a difference.

I have the 9.4k Dom gems she needs, to be maxed out to lvl 750, but I'm out of GXP after the LC, so it'll take a while.  A little short on affection too.

She's not gonna be blessed anytime soon anyway, due to "unknown" hair.  I suppose she'll be useful when M6s dominate, due to poor blessings.

Can we start a petition to give her grey, silver, or white hair?  it used to be pink, and they removed it... the bastards!!

Toadette art by konno tohiro & suegorou.

   
Forum avatar .gifs < 256 KB.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Ravi-Sama