mythic revival [ July 10th, 2023 ] MDR #24 - Bunna ​⚪​

[Ravi-Sama]

Bunna ⚪ - a fusion of Golden Bunny and Silver Lupa.  Her outfit is based on Gogeta from Dragon Ball Z.

Trivia: she was the 1st mythic girl, and it's her 3rd revival.

[Yamiray]

2 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

Trivia: she was the 1st mythic girl, and it's her 3rd revival.

Ah, I think this makes it her 4th

[Ravi-Sama]

34 minutes ago, Yamiray said:

Ah, I think this makes it her 4th

2020 - 1st appearance.
2021 - 1st Revival
2022 - 2nd Revival
2023 - 3rd Revival
2024 - 4th Revival

[Yamiray]

4 minutes ago, Ravi-Sama said:

2020 - 1st appearance.

My bad, read revival as appearance. is to early in the morning for me.

[madahmed]

i have already 11 shards from previuos event or revivals hhhhh.

i hope i can get her by tommorrow.

my only problem is SP which became rare since the new boosters.

i have 3 and i need 1

[DvDivXXX]

Already have her, and I counted on it as I wouldn't be able to go for it if this MDR had been for a girl I'm still missing. I'm just thankful for the extra MPx1s I'll get during LD.

Good luck have fun to those going for her. She's a big catch.

[Irvbert Pervington]

4 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

2020 - 1st appearance.
2021 - 1st Revival
2022 - 2nd Revival
2023 - 3rd Revival
2024 - 4th Revival

Do you believe she'll be revived again next year? Seems to be the pattern, but things can change. I know how coveted she is, but the timing is terrible for me, resource-wise. 

[Rylarth]

I know bunna is a big catch because she have a higher chance to be blessed than some mythics but I am for sure not going for her because of the art because holy shit those eyes sends chills down my spine and not in the bonner chills kinda way those eyes make me feel these girls are more likely to chopp a dick than to suck it😱

 

[Ravi-Sama]

7 hours ago, Irvbert Pervington said:

Do you believe she'll be revived again next year? Seems to be the pattern, but things can change. I know how coveted she is, but the timing is terrible for me, resource-wise. 

Yeah, she'll definitely be revived every year.  This is her 3rd July revival in a row.  She's special, even among the mythic girls. 

You can just go w/ the flow, or use 1 SP, if you can't get her completely atm.  Then, it'll be easier next time.

The thresholds to aim for are:

12 shards: 4 SP needed later
34 shards: 3 SP needed later
56 shards: 2 SP needed later
...might as well get her if you can go higher than this.

Aim for at least 12 shards.  I think that's possible even if low on resources.

[Horsting]

How can a mythic (every mythic?) be revived every year, when there is a new mythic every month and usually only one revival every month, respectively 13 in a year? With 12 MD and 12 MDR, every new mythic can only be revived once, e.g. always the mythic which was introduced in MD one year ago. To regularly revive an increasing pool, an increasing amount of MDR events per months would be needed. What am I missing?

[Master-17]

8 minutes ago, Horsting said:

How can a mythic (every mythic?) be revived every year, when there is a new mythic every month and usually only one revival every month, respectively 13 in a year? With 12 MD and 12 MDR, every new mythic can only be revived once, e.g. always the mythic which was introduced in MD one year ago. To regularly revive an increasing pool, an increasing amount of MDR events per months would be needed. What am I missing?

She and Jiggle Santa Claudia are special, they are revived every year. One on summer anniversaries, second - on New Years.

Usual mythics may be revived once at MDRs, but it'll be later that month. For Bunna and Santa Claudia are intended extraordinary revivals between MD and MDR

[Yamiray]

5 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

Yeah, she'll definitely be revived every year.  This is her 3rd July revival in a row.  She's special, even among the mythic girls. 

Its as if shes the mythic they want free to play players to have. But I was not going to risk it so I final got her/them this time. 

[DvDivXXX]

7 hours ago, Horsting said:

With 12 MD and 12 MDR

We get 1 MDR on a regular month. This is ANNIVERSARY month(s), baby! All bets are off. And typically you can expect at least 2 extra MDRs.

EDIT: Still, it's high time they started having double MDRs every month, with one girl from two years prior and one from last year. Especially since the few bonus revivals we get each year are condensed in the same couple of months (July/Aug and/or Nov/Dec) and they've been reviving the same girls multiple times (there were also Titania and Esme who both had an extra and unplanned MDR right after their initial MD, on top of the regular one a year later) while others weren't so lucky.

Edited July 11, 2023 by DvDivXXX
updated

[Karxan]

0 SHARDS on my Server; maybe tomorrow...

[nüm_tjo]

I got Bunna but with the worst drop rate I ever had!

I had 120 comb. saved up and used 5 sw and had to pay 10.692 cobans. I took me 1.105 tries with a resulting drop rate of 4,52%.

Is it possible that the keys for the Sultry Mysteries Event are interfering with the shards drop rate? Because on average I had to pay 7.700 cobans when using 5 sw.

[DvDivXXX]

20 minutes ago, nüm_tjo said:

Is it possible that the keys for the Sultry Mysteries Event are interfering with the shards drop rate? Because on average I had to pay 7.700 cobans when using 5 sw.

No. And your own personal average so far was significantly ahead of the expected average, so you were used to being lucky. You were bound to get a less lucky streak sooner or later.

[zoopokemon]

46 minutes ago, nüm_tjo said:

Is it possible that the keys for the Sultry Mysteries Event are interfering with the shards drop rate? Because on average I had to pay 7.700 cobans when using 5 sw.

This is correct since they don't use a fixed drop rate system (with ymen being the only thing to vary), instead they use a weight system. So adding more stuff to the drop pool would slightly decrease the drop rate. By how much exactly would be almost impossible to figure out.

26 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

And your own personal average so far was significantly ahead of the expected average

This is just incorrect, their own average was basically exactly inline with the expectation of 700 combativity with 5 sandalwood.

[Horsting]

39 minutes ago, zoopokemon said:

So adding more stuff to the drop pool would slightly decrease the drop rate.

Are you sure? Have there been statistics collected about this in the past? And which drops are affected by/affecting this? Only SM keys, or also regular villain girl drops? Same with LD?

I had 22 drops from 399 CP so far, i.e. 5.51% drop rate, which is pretty close to what I had in MR, both a little above the expected average.

43 minutes ago, zoopokemon said:

1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:

And your own personal average so far was significantly ahead of the expected average

This is just incorrect, their own average was basically exactly inline with the expectation of 700 combativity with 5 sandalwood.

But he used 5 SP and needed 1,105 CP, so it IS significantly above the expectations, when not expecting the SM keys to reduce the shard drop chance.

If SM did so significantly reduce event girl drop chances, this would be quite an important info, so one can decide whether the additional CP can be afforded, getting at least additional SM rewards/coins in return.

[bolitho76]

They confirmed in a Q&A at Discord last year that they use a weighted System. We don't know how they weight different rewards so it's hard to expect how the SM keyes (or other rewards) will interfere with the dorpchance of the Mythic Shards and the collectable data for this is a little bit to small for a good assumption.

[zoopokemon]

8 minutes ago, Horsting said:

But he used 5 SP and needed 1,105 CP, so it IS significantly above the expectations, when not expecting the SM keys to reduce the shard drop chance.

From my understanding DiV was saying that nüm_tjo's average results of spending 7,700 kobans was much better than the expected average, not about the 1,105 combativity.

[Ravi-Sama]

Here's some drop data from when the SM overlapped an MDR for Druiada Titania earlier this year.  It was indeed a below avg 5.7% vs. 6.5%.

I noticed Ymens usually have a higher drop rate closer to 75% when the SM isn't involved, vs. the ~66% I experienced then, so maybe that's what was sacrificed to drop keys.  The key drop rate was 6.8% = 37 keys / 544 CP

My personal avg drop rate for the 24x M6s I've actually recruited is 6.44% = 1,213 drops / 18,827 CP.

Avg kobans spent on CP is ~6.5k kos, for ~596 bought CP.

Used 193 free CP on avg.  The pantheon might be throwing that off a bit.

Total avg CP needed was 784 CP, slightly above the expected 770 CP, if 6.5% is the accepted avg drop rate. 
50 drops / 0.065 drop rate = ~769.2 CP

[mdnoria]

Just got her. Already had 22 shards from a previous MDR.

Got the remaining 78 shards with 641 fists and 4 SP so 6.08% drop rate if I remember my math.

Edit : Small sample size but here are the other drops while getting Bunna :

• 53 keys > 8.27%
• 44 MP1 > 6.86%
• 29 Tickets > 4.52%
• 53 gems > 8.27%
• 423 Ymens > 65.99%

Edited July 11, 2023 by mdnoria
Added other items drop rates

[Horsting]

Okay, so the mythic price is roughly 15-20% higher during SM. The keys are of course not worthless. For 30 keys in average you get 6 CP and 26 coins, or a little more being regenerating the grid at better average rewards. Those one could buy another 26 CP from, i.e. 32 CP overall. With a keys drop rate of let's say 7.5% (mine is 41/482=8.5%, mdnoria 8.27%, Ravi 6.8%), this means from 100 used CP, you could get 7.5*32/30=8 CP back. So it does not equalise the reduced shards drop rate completely, but along with the other SM rewards and given that one can use the coins for legendary girl shards directly, I'd say it is quite fair.

For LD shard drops it is then the same, right? There the SM coin value could be better compared, as LD girls are what one commonly wants to get for SM coins.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Horsting

[DvDivXXX]

1 hour ago, zoopokemon said:

From my understanding DiV was saying that nüm_tjo's average results of spending 7,700 kobans was much better than the expected average, not about the 1,105 combativity.

I was, and after reading your mention of that being in line with 700 fights, I've checked and (assuming no kobans were spent on x50s) ~7.7k would be around 713 fights. I thought the average was higher than that, like a bit north of 8k or ~750 fights? 700 sounds a bit too good to be true from my experience, but if that's the updated expectation drawn from shared data since I've stopped paying too much attention to that, then that's good news to me. Thanks for letting me know.

Having said that, even if this particular player happened to have a personal average right in line with the general expected average up until now, then I'd simply rephrase my previous post and say they've just had what seems to be their first bad run. That's also to be expected sooner or later.

--------

I'm a bit suspicious about the interpretation that the weighted system might reduce event girl shard drop rates, though. I don't remember the Q&A Bolitho mentioned where that was communicated, but I'm not too surprised if that's the case. But even if they admitted that, it seems a given that the lesser rewards would have their respective weights adjusted down to make room for extra rewards, not girl shards, and especially not event girl shards (at least not intentionally, there's always the possibility of a screw-up in the implementation).

I mean, if that's true, it goes right against everything that both a ton of past Kinkoid statements and a ton of community efforts to share and analyze data always told us. I distinctly remember the mantra that having permanent villain girls available never reduces the drop rate of an event girl placed on that villain. Also, if I understand what you guys are saying correctly, then this wouldn't just impact drop rates when there are SM keys, but anytime there's extra rewards added to a villain, like the MPx1 orbs during MD/R, or the affection items during LD/R. And we currently have all three of these active:

That's 7 different items or "buckets of items" that could be rolled as the reward for a given fight right now, up from the 3 base ones (ticket, cash, gems) + the event girl shards during, say, CE or OD. If each of these 4 extra items' presence reduced the drop rate of the event girl even by a bit, it would add up to the point of being pretty noticeable. And, again, it would go right against all I ever heard about event girls' drop rates.

Was something like that actually observed from a large enough sample to be reasonably sure the event girl's drop rate isn't constant (and what's been observed and established over the years, that is ~10% almost everywhere except for MD/R where it drops to ~6.5%-7%)? I mean, if so, this is HUGE and I'm a bit shocked to learn about it only now, and also a bit surprised that you guys (Zoo, Bolitho, Ravi) don't seem to be alarmed about it (then again you seem to have known or suspected this for awhile, so that part makes sense, actually).

I'm cautiously optimistic that you guys are a bit pessimistic and event girl drop rates are ensured above all else in the possible drop distribution, or at least that that's what Kinkoid means to be in place. I can't push the optimism to also include that it works exactly as intended, especially not if you guys have data suggesting otherwise. But... fingers crossed? I like getting SM keys and MPx1 orbs and even affection items, certainly more than I like getting Ymens or a champion ticket, but if that really brings event girls' drop rate drown it's not worth it. Especially not for LD or MD, which is exactly the cocktail we're having right now.

Right? 🙏

[bolitho76]

18 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

I'm a bit suspicious about the interpretation that the weighted system might reduce event girl shard drop rates, though. I don't remember the Q&A Bolitho mentioned where that was communicated, but I'm not too surprised if that's the case.

It was in the tech Q&A with Sandman in Nov.2022. I took the relevant posts from Discord here together:

 

Edit: Sems I oversaw two following posts after the last one here. Thanks to zoo who added them some posts later!

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by bolitho76