jijo250 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 First off I would want to thank team Kinkoid for sharing the shard drop quantity. This is a major improvement in instructing us, the players, of how the game is played. There are still some unknowns, and I'll get to that, but first I want to go over the least important, and personal preference of the patch. The "Perform! X10." At first I thought it only did a X1, but used 10 combativity tokens. Latter when I tried it again and was watching the numbers, I saw that all they did was gave me the sum of the results of the performances, which is fine, but I would have like to have seen the individual results of each performance and not the sum of them. Just got a little confused when I mistook the 55K for 5500. The drop rate is still unknown. But with the new system you can track it's progress. There is a negative to this system, and I think the team is using the current event to highlight that. In the old system it is possible to get a girl in just 1 combat, while the new one there is now a minimum number you must be in, before you can get her. I feel that the event shard quantity is a little low, and the world shard quantity is a little high, however the drop rate of these shards are still unknown, and therefore could actually balance out because of that. In my experience I get a shard drop roughly 1:10 being as bad as 1:20, to as good as 4:10, with event and world shards dropping at about the same rate. At this rate getting both 'free' event girls would be cutting it just a little short of the dead line of the event, which I think is ideal. [0.3(adv shard per fight)x48(1fight per 30 mins in 1 day)x12(days in the event)=172.8 (2 girls=200)] RandomNumberGenerator still plays a major roll in this, as you can get the first girl in as little as 17 fights, or you could spend the whole event using the 576 combat points and not get a single shard. I sense a new 2nd chance event to be made to complete the girls you got 50%+ in. ... just a thought. Made a new garbage test account to see how epic pachinko changed. More or less, it didn't. You either get a girl, or you don't. Was wondering if we would have gotten random shards as well as items. Nope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lhans Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 7 hours ago, jijo250 said: I feel that the event shard quantity is a little low, and the world shard quantity is a little high, however the drop rate of these shards are still unknown, and therefore could actually balance out because of that. In my experience I get a shard drop roughly 1:10 being as bad as 1:20, to as good as 4:10, with event and world shards dropping at about the same rate. At this rate getting both 'free' event girls would be cutting it just a little short of the dead line of the event, which I think is ideal. [0.3(adv shard per fight)x48(1fight per 30 mins in 1 day)x12(days in the event)=172.8 (2 girls=200)] By your calculations, it would be impossible to get anyone in the 4/5 day events without using kobans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jijo250 Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 (edited) 11 hours ago, Lhans said: By your calculations, it would be impossible to get anyone in the 4/5 day events without using kobans. From Horo Kinkoid: Classic Event will give between 1 and 6 Attraction for girl Revival Event will give between 1 and 12 Attraction for girl Legendary Event will give between 1 and 3 Attraction for girl Epic Event will give between 1 and 5 Attraction for girl Classic: .3x48x(12:14)=(172.8 : 201.6) Goal is 200. The 12:14 is that the classic events can be 12 to 14 days long. Revival: .6x48x4=115.2 Goal is 200, but this is the 2nd chance, so you should have gotten 1 first time around, so the goal should be really 100 Legendary: .15*48*5=36 Goal is 100, but is legendary, it's to be expected. (When looking at advRNG you will need about 22 refills. [64/.15/20=21.333] 22*210=about4620 kobans) Epic: .25*48*4:5=48:60 Goal is 500. This one by far is you worse bet, but these are girls that are always available in the epic pachinko. 100/.25/20=20, 20*210= 4200 You are looking at about 4200 kobans per girl as opposed to 5400 per girl. Again: 18 hours ago, jijo250 said: RNG still plays a major roll in this, as you can get the first girl in as little as 17 fights, or you could spend the whole event using the 576 combat points and not get a single shard. Classic:100/6=1 girl in 16.666 fights Revival: 100/12=1 girl in 8.333 fights Legendary: 100/3= 1 girl in 33.333 fights Epic: 100/5= 1 girl in 20 fights Those are 1 in 10*AffMax*FightCount though. Legendary = 1: 10,000, or rather 34:340,000 I feel that my functions may be off by a bit, if so the numbers would be way worse. I could also go into bell curves and standard deviations, and tell you what to expect on a good day, and what to expect on a bad day, but that would get even more long winded then I already went on about. Edited February 3, 2019 by jijo250 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lhans Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, jijo250 said: I feel that my functions may be off by a bit, if so the numbers would be way worse. I could also go into bell curves and standard deviations, and tell you what to expect on a good day, and what to expect on a bad day, but that would get even more long winded then I already went on about. Too. Much. Math. 💫 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lhans Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 hours ago, jaybee said: It seems to make the game very long-term for free players. Ordinary event girls seem to be obtainable in 5-6 days, so 12 days will be just enough to get two if you do all the fights, or you might be left with just one, if unlucky. OK, better luck next year during the revival. New players can at best obtain one revival girl, no mathematical chance of getting two. Epic and legendary girls will be mathematically impossible to get for free. You need 2-3 years of free plays during a number of revival events to have a chance at them. The only bonus seems to be that boss girls will be easier to get with the shard system. Nobody will probably need to fight 3-6 months to get them. This style goes for players who prefer to collect kobans to play epic pachinko and get girls from there. They can now choose to spend the kobans on event/epic/legendary girls that they earlier could chance to get for free. In that case they will no longer have kobans for epic pachinko, ever again. All of the kobans will be spent on boss fights for the "free" girls in the future. Luck will continue to play a role during 12-day events. If you are lucky, you get 2 girls without spending kobans. If you are unlucky, you have to spend perhaps a thousand kobans on additional fights. Luck will stop playing a role for epic, legendary etc girls. OK, if you are lucky, you can get to 30 shards by the end of the 4-day events. If you are unlucky, perhaps you stop at 15. Luck will come to play 2-3 years later when you are approaching 100 shards at some future revival event. If you are lucky, you may need just three events to get a "free" girl. If you are unlucky, you need 4-5 events and a couple of more years of play. How to make this system work? Perhaps with much more frequent revivals and second chance events that would have more numerous girls. That way players can keep increasing their shards several times a year. Epic Pachinko girls could disappear and start appearing at events, so they can be sharded up and perhaps bought with enough boss fights. Instead of a single 5,400 koban spin, you would have a guarantee that if you click the boss fight about 500 times, you can get to 80-100 shards on any girl. Doesn't look like a very attractive future, though. Perhaps by adding a new item, a sort of a attraction sphere that could be used on any girl and would give 1-4 attraction shards based on rarity. These could drop from any sort of activity (contest wins, pachinko, weekly wins, arena fights, boss fights, league fights, daily quests, maybe even the market). Sort of a "if you are active, you can get these as a bonus" thing. Like if you do at least 40 boss fights, 30 arena fights, I don't know, at least 2 market refreshes a day, there's a chance of them starting appearing. It would be a way of rewarding active players. The number of shards per victory could be increased but inevitably it will be impossible for anyone ever to get a non-12-day-event girl for free. That sort of RNG luck will disappear from the game. It will be a "I need 50 shard wins to get this girl" game for everyone and it looks sort of a tedious prospect. I feel the game somehow needs to preserve this element of getting a girl for free during a 4-5-day event. But how? Some sort of a rare super shard that gives you 30-50 attraction? Keeping the current 0.5% or worse chance to win an epic/legendary girl for free? And OK, if someone gets that with 80 shards collected, he just got 80 flowers as well? But something needs to be changed or I feel too many players will just give up when they see that they now need years, not days, to get a girl without just paying for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Like Jaybee said, the system as is, still needs work. I was excited for this as a 'saftey net' of sorts, but now it's just replacing one RNG for another form of RNG. And in this case, one that takes even longer. You've also insured no one can get legendary girls or epic event girls for free now. People aren't going to gamble, if they know they can't win. At the very least you should rethink what the max shard drops can be for legendary and epic events, maybe revivals as well. As this system stands right now, it will kill my interest in this game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windia Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 my test account was lucky enough to get val shao today for 100 shards. practically without refills. see threads in general feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I have always needed 2-3 days max to get a girl during 12-day events. After all, their drop rate is about 1%, so with 50 free battles a day, 100-150 battles or 2-3 days should be a very average result. This has now extended to 250 battles or 5 days to get 100 shards. It should not go beyond 5-6 days for one girl because at least those girls should be obtainable for free by doing the daily boss battles without kobans. Still, the aim should be for active players to get the girls in 2-4 days and for non-actives who don't use all of their battles to take 5-6 days. Therefore - increase the number of shards dropped or make the shards available through some other ways. I understand it is planned anyway. I believe the shard system is great for members who buy refills on boss fights - you can no longer spend 5,000 or 10,000 kobans and get absolutely nothing while a free player may need just 20 free fights to get the same girl. If you spend kobans now, the shards guarantee you some progress that is not lost. That is a good system against disappointment. But the shards make the progress of all players pretty similar and there's no more surprise factor. With epic and legendary girls you knew that you had very small chances of getting a girl but the surprise factor was possible. Shards remove the negative surprise (OMG! I spent thousands and got nothing, this game sucks!) and that is good. But they also remove the positive surprise (OMG! Legendary XX dropped in two days! I was sure I cannot be this lucky!) Now everybody knows 100% that they will not get an epic/legendary girl for free and there's nothing they can do to be lucky. If you don't want to spend on refills, you look at the legendary girl coming out in February and say: "Yeah, I like her. I will hunt her now and during all revivals and will get her by year 2022 or 2021 if I am lucky with shards." Well, that will sort of make you give up on this game. The shards remove the negative surprise - very good. But the positive surprise and chance of luck have to be preserved somehow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lhans Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, jaybee said: The shards remove the negative surprise - very good. But the positive surprise and chance of luck have to be preserved somehow. Yep there'll be no more jackpots, the hook that keep gamblers gambling, what we will get is an RNG grind. No more complaints (or at least less of it) from people who spent thousands of kobans with nothing to show for it. It'll be replaced by people complaining they don't get enough time during events to get girls without using kobans. So I guess between koban buyers and freebiers, the payers win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpp Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/2/2019 at 10:09 PM, jijo250 said: First off I would want to thank team Kinkoid for sharing the shard drop quantity. This is a major improvement in instructing us, the players, of how the game is played. There are still some unknowns, and I'll get to that, but first I want to go over the least important, and personal preference of the patch. The "Perform! X10." At first I thought it only did a X1, but used 10 combativity tokens. Latter when I tried it again and was watching the numbers, I saw that all they did was gave me the sum of the results of the performances, which is fine, but I would have like to have seen the individual results of each performance and not the sum of them. Just got a little confused when I mistook the 55K for 5500. The drop rate is still unknown. But with the new system you can track it's progress. There is a negative to this system, and I think the team is using the current event to highlight that. In the old system it is possible to get a girl in just 1 combat, while the new one there is now a minimum number you must be in, before you can get her. I feel that the event shard quantity is a little low, and the world shard quantity is a little high, however the drop rate of these shards are still unknown, and therefore could actually balance out because of that. In my experience I get a shard drop roughly 1:10 being as bad as 1:20, to as good as 4:10, with event and world shards dropping at about the same rate. At this rate getting both 'free' event girls would be cutting it just a little short of the dead line of the event, which I think is ideal. [0.3(adv shard per fight)x48(1fight per 30 mins in 1 day)x12(days in the event)=172.8 (2 girls=200)] RandomNumberGenerator still plays a major roll in this, as you can get the first girl in as little as 17 fights, or you could spend the whole event using the 576 combat points and not get a single shard. I sense a new 2nd chance event to be made to complete the girls you got 50%+ in. ... just a thought. Made a new garbage test account to see how epic pachinko changed. More or less, it didn't. You either get a girl, or you don't. Was wondering if we would have gotten random shards as well as items. Nope. Very much agree with this (although I can't say anything about the maths involved). As someone new to the test server and arriving during an event I think that the current version of the attraction system disadantages newer players during events, If we assume that when RNG rolls "girl attraction" it picks one of the girls you need to get then rolls how much you get this won't be good for new people. For example, I have just got to world two and therefore I have 4 girls to obtain (with the event girl having the lowest attraction drop rate to boot). On my main account (on the final world with everyone up to Finalmenica finished) I would always be getting attraction for the event girl and my chances are better! To rectify this I would suggest one or a combination of either the four below (each will probs have pros and cons) 1) Make event girls and normal girls independant - so you have cash, event girl, normal girl as options. 2) Up the chance of the even girl dropping attraction (and probably the amount given) 3) Maybe still leave an option in to get event girl in 1 battle 4) Have it so during the event, until the event girl is romanced they are the only attraction that drops. Once they are done it goes back to normal. You could keep the amount dropped relatively low again (still i'd suggest a tad higher than now) to make it take a while but it would give a much better chance of getting them. None of these ideas are perfect but it is food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Also an additional note. With how short legendary days are, and how few max shards you can get are, and most of all, the fact that shard drop is still RNG of if it even happens, it's still possible there will be players that spend thousands of kobans without getting the girl. Sure they can see how close they were, but this still doesn't solve their thousands of kobans without a girl problem, and now it's spread to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, trunks2585 said: Also an additional note. With how short legendary days are, and how few max shards you can get are, and most of all, the fact that shard drop is still RNG of if it even happens, it's still possible there will be players that spend thousands of kobans without getting the girl. Sure they can see how close they were, but this still doesn't solve their thousands of kobans without a girl problem, and now it's spread to everyone. It does solve the fact that they don't have to start all over again from scratch next time the girl is available though, which is the biggest complaint attached to spending kobans for no girl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said: It does solve the fact that they don't have to start all over again from scratch next time the girl is available though, which is the biggest complaint attached to spending kobans for no girl. True. The other side to this argument is many players on the legendary revival said they got their missing legendary girls the second time around though. So it's a preference I guess of gambling on if you get the girl on the first or second try or maybe not at all, vs. you are guaranteed to have stored progress but it will take more than one try and a whole lotta fights. We won't know for sure how beneficial this system is for legendary days till we see how often shards actually drop. There's one guy reporting he only gets 3-5 shards every 100 battles against finalmecha for example. It's really sounding like they traded one form of RNG for an even worse form. P.S. I just thought about something. Did we ever get confirmation on how shard drops compete with other girls? Because RNG on if they drop is bad enough, but if it's RNG on if it's for an event girl or normal boss girl, adds to the problem and hurts new players even more, especially with boss girls being removed from Pachinko and having no choice but to win them. If one fight can drop shards for multiple girls, it's not so bad. Edited February 6, 2019 by trunks2585 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraumII Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Reposting this here as I've been told that Devs are more likely to read feedback to test server features here: So after testing the new attraction system out on the test Server for a few days, I have to say I'm quite concerned about it. First off, the Attraction system in principle fills a demand that players have long held, it's in effect a safety net for rare drops. Instead of a low probability for an immediate girl drop, we now get a higher probability for a partial girl drop. What this means is that the odds of getting nothing at all even though you spent thousands of Kobans and tried hundreds of times will now be much lower. Additionally, progress accumulated during events will remain and be available again during revival events. So far so good. Now let's imagine there were no further changes to drop rates. By no further changes to drop rate I mean that if a partial drop gave 5% of a girl, then the probability for a partial drop would be 20 times higher than the probability for an immediate drop was before. This would basically just mean that extreme outliers become much less likely. With the new system people wouldn't be able to get a girl with only 5 tries anymore, but it'd also be much rarer for someone to need 1000 tries. Now whether someone needs 10 tries or 200 to get a girl basically makes no difference from kinkoid's perspective. The players will be able to get the girl with their free battles anyway. On the other hand, if no one needs 1000 battles for a girl anymore, that means quite a few less Kobans are spent. So introducing the attraction feature while keeping drop rates proportional to what they were before would basically mean a net loss of income for Kinkoid. I understand this and I therefor expected them to lower drop rates overall. Something like an increase of the average battles needed to get a girl by 10%-25% would seem reasonable to me. However, based on my tests on the testserver I have calculated that with a 95% probability, the dropchance for attraction from Mala during this event was at most 12%. Most of these drops gave 3 shards, one gave 4. Now let's assume that we're lucky and we always get 4 shards. That still means we need 25 shard drops to actually get the girl. If we assume the based on my tests very optimistic drop chance of 12 percent, that means we'll need an average of about 210 battles to get an event boss girl. Now this is a very optimistic estimate. A more balanced one would be a dropchance of about 6% with an average of 3 shards. Wich would mean we'd need 550 tries on average to get an event boss girl. Based on almost two years of playing this game and getting every single event boss girls available during that time, I can say with quite high certainty that event boss girl droprates so far were somewhere between 0.5-1%. My personal average for getting regular event boss girls with a sample size that is literally in the thousands is somewhere between 100 and 150 tries. To sum up: Right now it seems like proportional drop rates have been absolutely gutted. Yet another example of a long demanded feature that seems to be on track for being implemented in a way that would be hugely detrimental to the players. Not to mention the psychological factor that getting attraction shards is far less satisfying than getting a girl drop. Please do not implement this feature in this way. I would really prefer if everything just stayed the way it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fisticuz Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Seems to me that you could just keep both systems. Keep the ability for the girl to drop if you get lucky with the RNG, while leaving the shards there as a failsafe. Instead of that being the primary way to get girls, make it a pity timer that you can see your progress on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 hours ago, fisticuz said: Seems to me that you could just keep both systems. Keep the ability for the girl to drop if you get lucky with the RNG, while leaving the shards there as a failsafe. Instead of that being the primary way to get girls, make it a pity timer that you can see your progress on. See that's what I think we all thought they were going to do and should have done. That is in fact EXACTLY what many were suggesting, myself included. They ALWAYS take a good suggestion and twist it into a greedy implementation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraumII Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 (edited) So has anyone had the opportunity to test out the new Event Pachinko with the attraction feature yet? I made 3 new accounts and got a total of 8 girls with 45 spins. It honestly almost feels like they just added a 50/50 chance for girl drops to give 50 or 100 shards and didn't otherwise change the the probability of getting a girl drop at all when they should've compensated by significantly raising it. This new feature is looking worse and worse. Of course those numbers are nowhere near significant. I sure hope I was just unlucky, but I don't feel like taking the time to make dozens of new test accounts. How have you guys been doing on the new Event Pachinko? Edited February 8, 2019 by BraumII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemus Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 (edited) About new Event Pachinko - the chance to get a girl right away is 10 percent, the chance to get a “half” is 30 percent. In the end, everything will be worse than now, although it is now complete bullshit. When the girls fell out right away, you could make a couple of attempts in the hope of good luck, but now the chance to get a girl immediately became much less, but you can get useless “halves” that all next year, until a new revival, will remind you of this failure every day when entering the harem. Edited February 8, 2019 by Lemus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 (edited) I haven't tested the event pachinko, but I did have one event girl from a boss to work on. 10 fights got 21 shards another 10 and nothing for the event girl but a normal boss girl. Granted I have to get all the other girls still so I'm curious how well odds will go for an event girl that's not competing with other normal girls. So figured I'd edit this with a follow up to some more testing. My results for Mary haven't been much better, even with a chance to get double what a normal event has for shards I only gained another 10 shards after 20 fights. As for the pachinko test, I decided to buckled down and do a few spins. The game lagged on me and I hit the spin button an extra time so I got an odd result. But all 3 spins gave me 50 ankyo shards. So I wonder if they are already trying to reduce the RNG. It would have only been 2 spins to do that, but lag made it reward her twice cause it thought she was still in the system and hadn't processed to move onto the next girl. 3 shards for the same girl 3 times in a row makes me think they are at least going to be merciful on the event pachinko. Anyone else draw late after the revival event went live and got good results? Edited February 9, 2019 by trunks2585 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Bellanaris Posted February 10, 2019 Moderator Share Posted February 10, 2019 I just did three spins on the Event Pachinko, but I got no shards and no girl. Although I just got a random 100 shards for Bonny in one fight with Edwarda (I had 6 before and therefor got 6 Flowers as well). So they implemented that possibility at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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