Darsca Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 36 minutes ago, Benefuci said: That does surprise me, a lot! As I said, apart from the occasional turn in for a piece of gear I've been saving these. And yet I have (*counts*) 6 girls from there on my main account: Shao, Arabella, Merlinda, Lissa, Visihar, Princess Tiana. I don't think any of those was a T2 villain drop? I also have Suki and Yaya but they dropped in an event I think? Lissa is a Champion girl 😁 But yes, over small samples you can get some pretty wild variance on the number of girls from those spins. My own small sample is 12 girls in 204 spins, which is less than 6%😭 On the other hand, when Mythic first came out and Mountain Sophie was in there, and I wasn't sure if previous event mission girls were going to come back predictably, I dropped 10800 Kobans worth on the single spin for nada. It's subsequently balanced itself out with 3 girls from free spins/orbs but still, ouch! TL;DR still wouldn't recommend spending tangible Kobans on anything but the Epic Pachinko x10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benefuci Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, Darsca said: Lissa is a Champion girl 😁 Right! So it's only 5 then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted May 24, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted May 24, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Darsca said: I dropped 10800 Kobans worth on the single spin for nada. It's subsequently balanced itself out with 3 girls from free spins/orbs but still, ouch! If the koban price for the x1 spin is still 150, that's 72 spins, plus your 107 free spins (if you didn't miss any), and up to +/- 100 orbs depending on whether or not you've grabbed any extras from bundles and whether you've stashed some of the 103 free orbs distributed thus far or you've spent them all. So... that's around 280 orbs, give or take. If you grabbed three girls from that, then you were actually pretty lucky overall, given the (awful) odds. That's over 1%, which is more than twice the expected average (even more so if you spent fewer orbs than I estimated). Edited May 24, 2020 by DvDivXXX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darsca Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said: If the koban price for the x1 spin is still 150, that's 72 spins, plus your 107 free spins (if you didn't miss any), and up to +/- 100 orbs depending on whether or not you've grabbed any extras from bundles and whether you've stashed some of the 103 free orbs distributed thus far or you've spent them all. So... that's around 280 orbs, give or take. If you grabbed three girls from that, then you were actually pretty lucky overall, given the (awful) odds. That's over 1%, more than twice the expected average (even more so if you spent fewer orbs than I estimated). Heh. I guess I'll take that at face value and just praise my good luck then. And yeah, I just spend all spins and single game orbs as soon as I'm able to. I often have a rotation with no girls so I take any opportunity. Oh, it's worth noting that was on Nutaku (I used hh.com Koban values to not confuse the hell out of people) so there are no avatars there. It's hard to say whether girl drop rates are adjusted for those being in the pool without some very large (and accurate!) data sets, but I guess my numbers anecdotally support that they are not. Maybe I should start recording Mythic properly so that I have hard numbers on that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted May 25, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted May 25, 2020 Rotation #0108 (2020/05/25 - 13:00 CET): Asha, Candy maker Tiana and Venifera. Got a book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Booster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted May 27, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted May 27, 2020 Rotation #0109 (2020/05/27 - 13:00 CET): Norou, Alexandra and Sady. Got a booster. Another potentially interesting rota for me, but not there just yet. I already have Sady, and I'd like to grab Norou of course (wouldn't mind Alexandra either, but not as valuable). I think I'll still pass. I don't have enough orbs to give me strong odds of grabbing a girl, so even if there was just Norou it might still not work. Also, it may be dumb, but knowing that she was given away basically for free on the 3rd Anniversary event just before my time makes me more reluctant to spend anything on Norou (compared to Fabienne for instance). One of these days, something good will happen for me in MP. Just not anytime soon. ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Last two rotations, again double avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben9 Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 Some good luck for me today! Alexandra dropped 😁 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted May 29, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted May 29, 2020 Rotation #0110 (2020/05/29 - 13:00 CET): Cop Nika, Val Spook and Travel Gwenaelle. Got an avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 Booster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benefuci Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 After my last post here I kept track of what dropped. Split over 4 accounts (I play 2 "for real", 2 are just to mess around with and try stuff) I got: Epic gear: 1 Avatar: 29 Book: 10 Food: 17 Candymaker Tiana So yeah, I actually managed to snag a girl! Unfortunately not on one of my "real" accounts :D. And so far the number of avatars is much higher than predicted? Maybe it is because all accounts are relatively new. If the selection process works in such a way that it will select a random avatar, and if that is already unlocked will fall back on food/book, then the drop rate of avatars will be lower for "older" accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted May 29, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted May 29, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Benefuci said: And so far the number of avatars is much higher than predicted? Thanks for sharing. That's a very small sample, though, so it's not statistically relevant, and it also seems a bit unclear (beyond the fact that it's spread across multiple accounts). Even then, your avatar drop rate actually seems on point. We estimate it at around 50%, so 29 out of close to 55-ish spins would be just a tiny bit above average. And 1 girl out of that same sample would be extremely high compared to the 0.5% expected drop rate. Having said that, you seem to have thrown in at least one Epic Orb in this count, as you cannot get equipment from Mythic Pachinko. I suppose by "food" you mean boosters, and Candymaker Tiana was in the MP pool just a few days ago, so other than the odd "epic gear" you included, these seems like plausible MP drops. Apart from high-rolling on the girl drop, you're very much in line with our accepted drop rate estimations (even though, again, this is a very small sample, so variance can be huge). To be clear, as far as we currently know, you're expected to get, on average: 50% avatars 24.75% books 24.75% boosters 00.50% girls 38 minutes ago, Benefuci said: Maybe it is because all accounts are relatively new. If the selection process works in such a way that it will select a random avatar, and if that is already unlocked will fall back on food/book, then the drop rate of avatars will be lower for "older" accounts. No, it doesn't work like that. It rolls "avatar", and then it gives you a random one you don't already have. There's no way to know for sure what would happen if you already had all the avatars that exist in the game, and that's irrelevant because no one ever ever will. In theory, someone willing and able to burn tons of real money through kobans to buy every last avatar that's available to them just to test this might achieve a full avatar collection, but only temporarily. And there would be a few caveats, as avatars become available for you to buy (from your profile) only when an event including them takes place after your account's creation. Also, they're currently adding something like a million new(-ish) avatars to the game every month. More importantly, ain't nobody got time for dat. ^^ So, no. We're all equal in that regard. Everyone gets a metric ton of avatars from MP, except Nutaku players who get none and most likely have something close to a 50/50 between books and boosters, bar the .5% chance for a girl (unless that's higher for them, we don't have enough data to estimate that). Edited May 29, 2020 by DvDivXXX typo ^^ 24.75 not 49.75 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 I'm glad to announce that the "Avatinator" finally came through for me I was wondering if it was broken or something 😜 On orb 99 too (at least, since I'm tracking)! 😅👌 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted May 29, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted May 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Karyia said: I was wondering if it was broken or something 😜 Congrats, K! I'm glad for you. Err... Am I the only one left who has yet to have a girl drop in MP, now? ^^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said: Congrats, K! I'm glad for you. Err... Am I the only one left who has yet to have a girl drop in MP, now? ^^ Thanks! Think positive... who knows if you don't get even more lucky and grab a 5-star leg or alike? Keep spinning, your turn will come! 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benefuci Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 16 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: That's a very small sample, though, Yeah, I just got started. I'll keep registering though, and give an update after a while. Now I wonder how that legendary gear got in there <shame face> . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted May 31, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted May 31, 2020 Rotation #0111 (2020/05/31 - 13:00 CET): Holly, Desdemona and Rose. Got an avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 Last two weeks: 15 Mythic 1x orbs: Girl - 1/15 (Cop Nika) (~6,7 %) Books - 2/15 (~13,3%) Boosters - 4/15 (~26,7%) Avatars - 8/15 (~53,3%) Overall: Girl - 1/101 (~1%) Books - 20/101 (~19,8%) Boosters - 24/101 (~23,7%) Avatars - 56/101 (~55,5%) Last rotation, an avatar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 Last two rotations, an inconsuete booster + avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted June 2, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted June 2, 2020 Rotation #0112 (2020/06/02 - 13:00 CET): Bernadette Barda, Cupid-chan and Cheryl. Got a book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Book here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniele Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 On 4/21/2020 at 5:55 PM, Daniele said: Got my 6th girl on nutaku, Sabine 😮 Here we go again, got Dezy on nutaku... She's the 7th girl from mythic pachinko in that account, using only free spins/orbs. No, actually i still have 84 MyP orbs (and i even missed 2 free spins and 4 orbs)... I would gladly trade all these drops for one more girl in my main account here on HH 😅 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted June 2, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted June 2, 2020 48 minutes ago, Daniele said: Here we go again, got Dezy on nutaku... She's the 7th girl from mythic pachinko in that account, using only free spins/orbs. No, actually i still have 84 MyP orbs (and i even missed 2 free spins and 4 orbs)... I would gladly trade all these drops for one more girl in my main account here on HH 😅 Congrats, and thanks for sharing. Oh my. Assuming you didn't get any extra orbs from a bundle or something (and that RM offers are roughly similar on Nutaku), then this means you got 7 girls out of a minuscule sample of 135 spins. You either had an insanely lucky streak, or the girl drop rate is much higher on Nutaku (on top of the 0% avatar guarantee ^^). It's impossible to estimate seriously at this point, as we only have data from a few players for their Nutaku accounts so far (even though all of them had at least above average results, it's just too tiny a sample, and also skewed because those players all came to report specifically when they had a win, so they're likely not very representative). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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