[ 14-Sep-20 ] Orgy Days - Discussion

[Dr. Lust]

8 minutes ago, Max669 said:

It's 5 days and the drop rate is better than ED. You can get up to 12 shards at once, I think, so it should be easier to get at least one girl, maybe even 2 without koban. I'm going for Lopussy first : 7/100 so far with just a dozen of fights done.

I'll give it a try.  First 20 got me 3 shards.  All I can do is try and see what happens.  Thank you.

[Kenrae]

0 shards so far 🙄

[FinderKeeper]

@Max669, @Dr. Lust

In Orgy Days on average you get 13 shards per 20 combat refill. Average 7.7 refills will get you a girl. If you buy refills, converted cost is about 1662 kobans per girl.

In 5 days of the event you'll get about 12 refills of combativity for free.

[Sir Fuck-a-Lot]

6 hours ago, Caradog said:

3rd OD in a row where there has been a 5 star girl on one of the bosses.

True, but sadly this hasn't been the case with Metal Noemy, the only Not-Legendary 5-Star girl I'm still missing, who has been obtainable from a villain in June 2017 and 2018, before I joined the game, but not since, in 2019 or 2020. She would have made it 4 in a row!

[Sir Fuck-a-Lot]

5 hours ago, mikcris said:

Well I hope you are right and in 5 Days one can get here without refills. So far for me it is not looking good, I just finished a 26 consecutive battle run and no shard has dropped.

In Orgy Days usually one can finish a girl in 2 or 3 days without refills.

@FinderKeeper even posted the exact math:

1 hour ago, FinderKeeper said:

@Max669, @Dr. Lust

In Orgy Days on average you get 13 shards per 20 combat refill. Average 7.7 refills will get you a girl. If you buy refills, converted cost is about 1662 kobans per girl.

In 5 days of the event you'll get about 12 refills of combativity for free.

 

[Max669]

Il y a 1 heure, mikcris a dit :

Let's not confuse drop rate with drop range. The 12 shards at one you talk about means the top of the drop range. The drop rate would be how many times you get even one shard per number of fights.

I'm not confusing anything, and it's the real drop rate I'm talking about. That is : Out of 100 fights, how many shards can you expect to get, in average. More explanations here :

 

[Zteev]

Glad I can get the mission girl and the new girl on the bosses, and especially glad it's not the one by the artist that needs to be assigned to never drawn a re-interpretation of anything drawn by anyone else.

No shards yet, but it's Orgy days, so they will come. I will at worst get 2 new girls, and with 2 new girls added, that's a break-even. Beats Epic Days by a lot.

[DvDivXXX]

48 minutes ago, Max669 said:

I'm not confusing anything, and it's the real drop rate I'm talking about. That is : Out of 100 fights, how many shards can you expect to get, in average.

You're free to choose whichever terminology you prefer for yourself over the one widely used by the vast majority of knowledgeable players of this game, including most of those who write down their stats or contribute to large tests to estimate odds of various things in the game. But please understand that it's obviously going to confuse anyone you talk to about this. You would avoid this issue by taking the time to get up to date on some of the astounding work done by the community to estimate and confirm odds, and adopt the terminology already in use here instead of trying to impose your own.

Also, since it's a semantics issue and it's entirely on you for using a term most of us already use but giving it a different meaning, please don't get on your high horse when someone reacts as confused as expected in this situation. More explanation everywhere (if you care to look).

Drop rate: odds to get a drop (per roll). Drop range: possible number of shards to get in a single drop. That's what those terms mean here, for everyone but you (and a number of players who aren't too stats-oriented and tend to confuse the two anyway).

FYI, the former is estimated and vastly confirmed (by the community, not by any official Kinkoid source) to be consistently 10% across the board. The latter varies for each event format, and every test results I'm aware of (including but certainly not limited to my own) tend to indicate a true random distribution within each range. Those numbers are officially known for each type (and can even be found on the wiki). For OD, the drop range is 1-12, yes.

What you refer to as "the real drop rate" would be called "the expected average result" by anyone else who knows and cares about odds and drop stats around here. In case you'd like to adapt, which would be appreciated. Cheers.

[test_anon]

il y a 15 minutes, DvDivXXX a dit :

What you refer to as "the real drop rate" would be called "the expected average result" by anyone else who knows and cares about odds and drop stats around here. In case you'd like to adapt, which would be appreciated. Cheers. 

I think this is called the expectation (espérance in french).

[Max669]

il y a 18 minutes, DvDivXXX a dit :

You're free to choose whichever terminology you prefer for yourself over the one widely used by the vast majority of knowledgeable players of this game, including most of those who write down their stats or contribute to large tests to estimate odds of various things in the game. But please understand that it's obviously going to confuse anyone you talk to about this. You would avoid this issue by taking the time to get up to date on some of the astounding work done by the community to estimate and confirm odds, and adopt the terminology already in use here instead of trying to impose your own.

Also, since it's a semantics issue and it's entirely on you for using a term most of us already use but giving it a different meaning, please don't get on your high horse when someone reacts as confused as expected in this situation. More explanation everywhere (if you care to look).

Drop rate: odds to get a drop. Drop range: possible number of shards to get in a single drop. That's what those terms mean here, for everyone but you (and a number of players who aren't too stats-oriented and tend to confuse the two anyway).

FYI, the former is estimated and vastly confirmed (by the community, not by any official Kinkoid source) to be consistently 10% across the board. The latter varies for each event format, and every test results I'm aware of (including but certainly not limited to my own) tend to indicate a true random distribution within each range. Those numbers are officially known for each type (and can even be found on the wiki). For OD, the drop range is 1-12, yes.

What you refer to as "the real drop rate" would be called "the expected average result" by anyone else who knows and cares about odds and drop stats around here. In case you'd like to adapt, which would be appreciated. Cheers.

 

No offense, but terms such as "drop rate" were used long before the knowledgeable players of this game started using it - in RPG's, MMO's and even MUD's, long before Hentai Heroes existed.

Anyway, I'm not trying to impose anything, I'm just pointing out that I'm not "confusing anything", and explaining why. I'm sorry if you don't like it. I'm done with this discussion.

[DvDivXXX]

15 minutes ago, Max669 said:

No offense, but terms such as "drop rate" were used long before the knowledgeable players of this game started using it - in RPG's, MMO's and even MUD's, long before Hentai Heroes existed.

Sure. But this is HH's forum, so the terminology in use here might be a better choice if you wish to communicate with other HH players on this.

16 minutes ago, Max669 said:

Anyway, I'm not trying to impose anything, I'm just pointing out that I'm not "confusing anything", and explaining why. I'm sorry if you don't like it. I'm done with this discussion.

Good. No problem.

[test_anon]

il y a 32 minutes, Max669 a dit :

No offense, but terms such as "drop rate" were used long before the knowledgeable players of this game started using it - in RPG's, MMO's and even MUD's, long before Hentai Heroes existed.

Some might use Malapropism (?), but it highly depends on how the game works.

For example if at the end of a dungeon you have 4 boxes giving each an independent random rewards, you can have 4 drops of the same object. The same if there is a mob that can give you several time the same object, with X independent random draws.

(EDIT: And I'm pretty sure in such cases they would talk about drop rates per boxes)

 

But in HH, the game first decides whenever you dropped (with a drop rate of 10%), then decides how many (with the drop range). And the "result" is your expectancy. You drop only once, but several shards at once. Just as you can drop gold in some games where the drop rate is fixed, but the amount of gold might vary. The drop only drop one item (bag of gold).

In HH, you can see it as a drop of an unique box that, when opened, gives you a random amount of shards.

Edited September 14, 2020 by test_anon

[Dr. Lust]

Well, no matter what in 5 hours I'll try another 20 combativity and hope to get more then 0 shards.  I'll take anything but I'm saving my kobans for another event. Looking for that elusive muscular/sexy/curvy girl from either the "event/gift girl" or to rescue from a villain.  I have no luck in Pachikno. Good luck everybody.

[Sir Fuck-a-Lot]

I've got 26% of Design School Lopussy so far ...

[Max669]

il y a une heure, test_anon a dit :

In HH, you can see it as a drop of an unique box that, when opened, gives you a random amount of shards.

Thank you for this, that's actually the best way to put it, very helpful ! It should help clear things up, although I was done with the discussion (really, I was!)

Basically, you're talking about the drop rate of "shard boxes" : How many shard boxes can you expect to obtain in average when fighting 100 villains ? The answer seems to be 10 (for now - it may or may not change in future events), so we have a 10% drop rate for those boxes of shards. And I completely agree with that definition of "drop rate".

However, what I'm interested in, and the drop rate I talked about in my previous messages, is the drop rate of individual shards, not boxes of shards. In other words : how many single shards will you get after 100 fights ? And to calculate that, you need both the drop rate of boxes (10%) and the drop range of their content (1-12 for OD). With values evenly distributed within that range, you should end up with a 65% drop rate for single shards : in 100 kills, one will get an average of 65 single shards.

So that's my conclusion : we're just talking about the drop rate of different things, boxes or shards. My mind is clearer now, I can sleep peacefully 😛

Good night y'all !

 

 

[Observer_X]

@FinderKeeper, please allow me: having divided the girls in two questions, you should add a "none" choice also to question 1, as the second question "none" has no value for question 1, and the forum asks to insert a choice also for question 1, otherwise one can't vote (and I don't like any of question 1 girls).

As far as taste goes, my favorites of this event are Rabbi, Judy, Skytte and Shina. Although usually I don't judge graphics, my merciless side came out when I saw Mala: I believed she cannot became worse than she was, but before she was only ugly, now she is ugly and has also a stupid face.

[natstar]

6 hours ago, Dr. Lust said:

4 days to get 100 shards....another bad event.  Glad there is an event girl at least.  Other then that I'll recruit no other girls.

if you just need 100 shards for one event girl then you can do it because the amount of shards during this event gives is high and good event for people that want to use combativity refills on as well much better than the epic days drop rate which is only just above legendary days in drop rate.

[FinderKeeper]

14 minutes ago, Observer_X said:

@FinderKeeper, please allow me: having divided the girls in two questions, you should add a "none" choice also to question 1, as the second question "none" has no value for question 1, and the forum asks to insert a choice also for question 1, otherwise one can't vote (and I don't like any of question 1 girls).

Thanks for the heads up.

[Kenrae]

Really, until just 5 minutes ago I still had 0 shards on Lopussy, talk about bad luck.
And then this:

 
So you need to recharge your good luck by having bad luck for a time? Fair enough!

[Čamuga]

I got a question- Why does Lopussy look... human? Did something happen and she's no longer a rabbit-looking creature? 🤔

[AmandaMoon]

Are we not even getting legendary boosters now when we
already have the mission girl?

I'm getting the first image below, when I should be seeing
something like the second image.

I think this means they finally realized 240 180 kobans worth of
stuff was such poor compensation for a girl you spent
thousands of kobans to win, so they decided to surprise us
with a wonderful choice of splendid gifts!  I can't wait to
see what I will get!

And maybe Sorority Sister Mavin will join me in real life.  💙
Yes. I  am quite delusional.

Edited September 14, 2020 by AmandaMoon
value of compensation was too high

[Observer_X]

Maybe it's possible you made my same error: the girl on this event is "Slacker Malina" and you probably have already in your harem her first version, named only "Malina". Try to put "Malina" in the search field of the harem page and look what comes out.

[bantuatha]

just got Lopussy, and realized is a other variant from "Gotta fuck 'em all" event" well I am done for now.

[GeorgeMTO]

1 hour ago, Observer_X said:

Maybe it's possible you made my same error: the girl on this event is "Slacker Malina" and you probably have already in your harem her first version, named only "Malina". Try to put "Malina" in the search field of the harem page and look what comes out.

So you didn't look at the fact that it says 100/100 and is obviously a screenshot from the event interface? Good to see you're a quality observer.

[Dr. Lust]

18 minutes ago, mikcris said:

Well the math may be right... it is just not adding up in may case... I now have 70 fights and 0 shards. It may be building up to something huge like a 100 shard drop or as some may like to call it it is just "bad luck"

I'm in the same boat.  40 free combativity fights vs 2nd level Ninja Spy and 7 shards dropped for Botanist Murakawa.  I'd be surprised if I acquire her in the time left.  I'll just go for the event girl and save my kobans for another event and just hope I get lucky.   No pun intended.