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[10-Oct-20] Legendary Days - Discussion


Antimon
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Legendary days  

94 members have voted

  1. 1. Favorite Girl

    • Nero
      53
    • Fabienne
      48
    • (none)
      11
  2. 2. Rate New Girl

    • /¯¯¯¯\ Faptastic!
      69
    • .Nero. Meh
      23
    • \____/ Yucky
      2


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9 hours ago, DisgustingMarsupial said:

That's the nature of Legendary Days. The drop rate is really small and spending kobans for refills is part of the process.

9 hours ago, spacedragon64 said:

Drop rate too low mean, for me, no koban spend.

Drop range* (between 1 and 3 shards per drop). The drop rate is the same as always (10% chance to get a drop). Otherwise, yes, obviously aside from a x100 drop or maybe the most insane good run ever, it's a given that you should never expect to get a girl in LD without a significant number of koban refills.

 

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34 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Drop range* (between 1 and 3 shards per drop). The drop rate is the same as always (10% chance to get a drop). Otherwise, yes, obviously aside from a x100 drop or maybe the most insane good run ever, it's a given that you should never expect to get a girl in LD without a significant number of koban refills.

 

You are sure by all statistical means that the drop rate is "the same"? Like the same for LD or the same for events at all?

Yes, 1-3 makes a 10% rate three times the fights compared to 2-8 for classic events. So an easy feeling of lower rate comes by design with a lower range.

 

It is just that while you are a player like me, you look official as mod. Which makes it a bit more important to be as precise as you can be.

 

Because people will claim that 10% means that from a 10x there needs to be a drop - which is statistically wrong.

Just from 1000 fights it should then be around 100 drops - something like 85-115 ...

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48 minuti fa, windia ha scritto:

You are sure by all statistical means that the drop rate is "the same"? Like the same for LD or the same for events at all?

Until now, it has proven true that all events have the same (or at lest very similar) drop rate, and that drop rate is ~10%. There is an entire thread in the feedback section with data reports made by players.

Of course, dry streaks (even pretty big) can totally happen, and 4 drops in 10 fights can totally happen, too. Overall, in legendary days you should expect to complete a girl in around 500 fights (with fluctuations due to RNG)

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2 minutes ago, Antimon said:

Of course, dry streaks (even pretty big) can totally happen, and 4 drops in 10 fights can totally happen, too. Overall, in legendary days you should expect to complete a girl in around 500 fights (with fluctuations due to RNG)

you cant say this enough, but most people dont hear it anyways - like we saw a few days/weeks ago, it also can happen that you got 2 x100 + 4 drops in 10 fights

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8 minutes ago, Esios said:

The thing is I don't want to loose more than 2000 kobans without knowing if I will get the girl in the end or not :(

Depends on how many shards you already have because you would need to get very lucky to do it with that many if you had no shards.

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We are having this same posts (too low shards drop, should I spend 2000 kobans or how many kobans I need to get the girl) every legendary days.

In average you should need 500 battles to get the girl, but you could get her in less than 400 if you are lucky, or more than 600 if you aren't.

Discounting the 200 free regeneration battles during the 4 days of the event, that means between 200 and 400 additional battles.

Translating this into kobans needed to be sure to get her: between 2000 and 4000, but prepare another 1000 in case you are super unlucky and need near 700 battles.

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3 hours ago, windia said:

You are sure by all statistical means that the drop rate is "the same"? Like the same for LD or the same for events at all? [...]
It is just that while you are a player like me, you look official as mod. Which makes it a bit more important to be as precise as you can be. [...]

Because people will claim that 10% means that from a 10x there needs to be a drop - which is statistically wrong.Just from 1000 fights it should then be around 100 drops - something like 85-115 ...

Yes, I'm sure. As Antimon, Jelom and others have also mentioned here and elsewhere, this estimate has been confirmed consistently over a long period of time, with massive data samples collected and compiled by many dedicated, generally stats-oriented (and odds-savvy) players. Just check the older and longer of the 3 community project threads I sticky-ed in the Feedback section.

This is the type of info I've been eagerly taking notes on, researching, testing, verifying and asking more knowledgeable players about for over a year (and sharing with others in turn), long before I even imagined I would eventually become a mod here. While it can't be helped that some users will always kinda confuse forum mods with Kinkoid employees, and assume everything a mod says is an official statement, that's not the case at all (unless otherwise indicated). More importantly, providing information or answering questions isn't even formally a part of a moderator's duties, it's just something we tend to do as members of the community who want to help (which coincides with being a mod, but isn't the same thing).  On such topics, you shouldn't take me seriously because I'm a mod, but simply because I know about those things and I do my best to keep up to date on those things. Shal isn't a mod, for instance, but when he gives a number on something, you can usually take his word for it.

Last but not least, yes, the human mind isn't wired to handle odds very well by default, so lots of people interpret statistics and especially probabilities very incorrectly, and not just the outright superstitious and/or storytelling-oriented players. It's not anyone's fault, especially not those who provide relevant and correct numbers. We can help people notice their own bias, if they're open-minded enough and interested in understanding odds properly, but we can't force anyone either. That shouldn't keep us from sharing reliable info, though.

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In all legendary days i did (with shards) at this point i was sitting on like 50-55 shards. Currently i'm at 20... never happened to have such a super bad luck for me :). i mean i'm used at being unlucky but aren't we exaggerating a bit too much ? Have mercy please XD i really want my dear Aqua. Maybe the game is just making me suffer a bit before a great 100 shards drop right at the end ;).

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2 minutes ago, Xemnas said:

In all legendary days i did (with shards) at this point i was sitting on like 50-55 shards. Currently i'm at 20... never happened to have such a super bad luck for me :). i mean i'm used at being unlucky but aren't we exaggerating a bit too much ? Have mercy please XD i really want my dear Aqua. Maybe the game is just making me suffer a bit before a great 100 shards drop right at the end ;).

If you didn't refill on those previous LDs, then you were very lucky actually. 3 days is ~150 boss combats. Let's say you have some combativity saved for the occasion and win some through contests, and increase that number to 180, and I'm being generous. The average shards on LDs for 180 battles is 36 shards.

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18 minutes ago, Kenrae said:

If you didn't refill on those previous LDs, then you were very lucky actually. 3 days is ~150 boss combats. Let's say you have some combativity saved for the occasion and win some through contests, and increase that number to 180, and I'm being generous. The average shards on LDs for 180 battles is 36 shards.

Ohhhh wow then i've been very lucky on legendary days till now and i didn't know it!!!!!!!!!! Usually in this legendary days i get 50-55 shards and then i finish the girl with 2000-2500 kobans. Thanks for the informations.

Even tho maybe i should have some suspects about my luck since in the very first one we had, our dear Levitya, i dropped her after 2 fights XD

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2 hours ago, Xemnas said:

In all legendary days i did (with shards) at this point i was sitting on like 50-55 shards. Currently i'm at 20... never happened to have such a super bad luck for me :). i mean i'm used at being unlucky but aren't we exaggerating a bit too much ? Have mercy please XD i really want my dear Aqua. Maybe the game is just making me suffer a bit before a great 100 shards drop right at the end ;).

If you're not know-how you could just wait for her to appear in mythical pachinko later on normally takes a few months at least before the newer ones appear in it though but it is another option if your running low on kobans.

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About 200 combats i have only 21 shards of Nero 2 legendary items en zero Fabienne. This means i need 1000 combats for Nero, so it would be a waste to buy Special Offer. If you want players to pay money then you should give them a reason to do so.

Anyway i just wanted to give my toughts. I don't need any of these girls anyway, because i have next Any also Valentina for Charm and Keiko for Hardcore. But i would go for it if i knew i would have one of these girls by about 500 combats.

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Il y a 1 heure, natstar a dit :

If you're not know-how you could just wait for her to appear in mythical pachinko later on normally takes a few months at least before the newer ones appear in it though but it is another option if your running low on kobans.

This isn't really the subject in this thread but how does mythical pachinko works ?
Each time I win girls shards the amount is only 10 and it is even rarer than getting a girl from Epic Pachinko

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1 hour ago, natstar said:

If you're not know-how you could just wait for her to appear in mythical pachinko later on normally takes a few months at least before the newer ones appear in it though but it is another option if your running low on kobans.

Yeah i don't wanna use too much kobans on her otherwise my game plan is dead XD.

And wow a few months...uhm i can think about it. I have some yellow orbs to fully make one or 2 girls if is really needed... BUT she is Aqua how can i say no to her my friend 😂? even if i'm charm is a big pain to let her go.

I'll probably see how it goes maybe i'll try some refills and if the thing becomes too self-destructive i'll just stop :) time to do some more game planning and see how far i can go. Also i could use some of my emergency little kobans tresure ( i have it becouse...... well, i always need a plan B, C and D with my luck 😉) the thing is do i really want? Will see for now nothing is decided for me.

One more decision that i (very hardly) made is to not use kobans to end one girl in the epic days so probably i will have a bit more kobans with that, and i can play aroud that.

Uhm.... decisions...decisions....

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52 minutes ago, Esios said:

This isn't really the subject in this thread but how does mythical pachinko works ?
Each time I win girls shards the amount is only 10 and it is even rarer than getting a girl from Epic Pachinko

Please read the in-game explanation of what each option (MPx1; x3 or x6) does. You can also learn more from the game's wiki page on Pachinko.

And I forgot to answer this earlier on:

8 hours ago, Esios said:

The thing is I don't want to loose more than 2000 kobans without knowing if I will get the girl in the end or not :(

Do not go for it. You seem to be a fairly new player, so LD is not the type of event best suited for you at this point. If you can only invest 2k kobans maximum, then you're much more likely to end up with a partial girl than to complete her. More importantly, if your koban stash is only about 2k then you should start saving up and choose the next event you invest on very carefully. Resource management is absolutely crucial if you want a good progress curve in this game, and rule #1 is to pick your battles. Prepare for the worst case scenario, and you might get a good surprise. Rely on luck to save your butt if you don't have enough chips to go all-in, and you're almost sure to be disappointed.

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8 hours ago, jelom said:

We are having this same posts (too low shards drop, should I spend 2000 kobans or how many kobans I need to get the girl) every legendary days.

In average you should need 500 battles to get the girl, but you could get her in less than 400 if you are lucky, or more than 600 if you aren't.

Discounting the 200 free regeneration battles during the 4 days of the event, that means between 200 and 400 additional battles.

Translating this into kobans needed to be sure to get her: between 2000 and 4000, but prepare another 1000 in case you are super unlucky and need near 700 battles.

I don't think that this is a bad thing. If you just collect the koban reward from completing your missions each day, on average you'll get 4500 a month and that's before quest koban rewards and league rewards. Sure, the numbers are tight, but it's possible to do as F2P and, unlike in legendary contests, you don't need to significantly alter how and when you play the game if you're not normally around at the daily reset time. 

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@DvDivXXX Thanks for the Mythical Pachinko answer !

And yes I started to save up as soon as I figured out that PoA "premium" rewards can be quite easily obtained with some strict koban saving policy. My goal is to grab all the girls from this month PoA event 💪
So that's why I can't afford to spend more than 2000 kobans on LD (I have currently only 9500 kobans...) :'(

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5 hours ago, Esios said:

This isn't really the subject in this thread but how does mythical pachinko works ?e
Each time I win girls shards the amount is only 10 and it is even rarer than getting a girl from Epic Pachinko

3 girls are picked each day to go into mythic pachinko the 1 game option which has the lowest chance but you get 100 shards when it works and 3 and 6 games are better for getting shards but they do not give 100 shards like the 1 game option gives. 

 

5 hours ago, Xemnas said:

Yeah i don't wanna use too much kobans on her otherwise my game plan is dead XD.

And wow a few months...uhm i can think about it. I have some yellow orbs to fully make one or 2 girls if is really needed... BUT she is Aqua how can i say no to her my friend 😂? even if i'm charm is a big pain to let her go.

I'll probably see how it goes maybe i'll try some refills and if the thing becomes too self-destructive i'll just stop :) time to do some more game planning and see how far i can go. Also i could use some of my emergency little kobans tresure ( i have it becouse...... well, i always need a plan B, C and D with my luck 😉) the thing is do i really want? Will see for now nothing is decided for me.

One more decision that i (very hardly) made is to not use kobans to end one girl in the epic days so probably i will have a bit more kobans with that, and i can play aroud that.

Uhm.... decisions...decisions....

Before they added mythic pachinko as another option to get legendary day girls people would save their kobans up for the event which happens every 2 months because it was better to get a 5 star girl than 3 star ones from other events for example you can spend 5400 kobans in epic pachinko to get a girl but they are only 3 stars or you could save those kobans for legendary days.

Path of attraction event at the end of month has a second path of rewards to unlock more 2 more girls for kobans but they are only 3 stars as well.

 

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