[ 14-Sep-22 ] Orgy Days - Discussion

[FinderKeeper]

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This event is part of the Season of Untamed Babes.

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Orgy Days

A Classy Orgy
My horny hero,

Are you ready to amp up the classy meter with this sophisticated and hot orgy?

You have until the 19th of September to dive into the fun with 35 hot babes, including the naughty new additions - College Honey and Greta and Bard Josephine.

Lose yourself in the pool of lust and come out on top.

Mission Girl

Teacher Deitra

Boss Girls

Candy maker Tiana

LARP Geekette

Solange

Nikki Vignae

College Honey an... College Honey and Greta

Monk Hannah

Katra

Event Pachinko Girls

Wizard Ankyo	Warlock Sherly	Bard Josephine	Barbarian Lola (On Champion)	Justine	Secretary Rabbi	Mathlete Ankyo
Fangirl Sylvia	Detective Spook	Physicist Shina	Barmaid Stephanie	Fangirl Dameda	Fangirl Layla	Airi
Judi Books	Slacker Malina	Fangirl Erika	Botanist Murakawa	Tami	Erika	Paladin Viola
Masseuse Vashala... Masseuse Vashalanor	Druid Crystal	Sally	Sailor Skytte	Danielle	Rogue Valentina	Sorority Sister Ma... Sorority Sister Mavin (On Champion)

 

 <- clickable

@Noacc

[TeeJay]

Oh, so it looks like I'm first to post.

Well...

I've got most of the boss girls it seems. Maybe some of the pachinko, too.

This is who is available.

• Monk Hanna
• College Honey and Greta
• Candy Maker Tiana
• Katra
• Solange
• and Sorority Sister Mavin

My first priority is Candy Maker Tiana. I can't help it, I love the classic girls that were hard to achieve. After her, I have my sighs set on Monk Hanna and College Honey and Greta

I'm in luck with Mavin as I'm at the first stage of her champion so I have good hope that I'll be able to win her as well. Mavis, by the way, is also a wanted girl. I have to collect everyone of her, too.

The other girls, I'm not just that into their art so they rate lower.

There's a whole slew of Pachinko girls that I won't be able to get, either, including...

• Bard Josaphine
• Fangirl Damede
• Judy Books - Always a wanted woman
• Druid Crystal
• Sally
• Masseuse Vashalanor
• Tami
• Erika
• Daniel
• and Rogue Valentina - A wishful want

But, I have no illusion about my chance to win any, let alone the two I'm interested in, so they'll all have to pass

And speaking of girls to pass on, let us touch upon Bard Josaphine...

Now, we all know that Justine is a bit touched in the head but this first image of Josaphine, well, she just marks me as someone about to go totally helter-skelter. She's got that singing mouth that looks like a laugh and those "I'm going to kill you so badly" eyes. Hell, she might even place high in the Joker Look-a-Like contest. So, happy to skip her.

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by TeeJay

[Ravi-Sama]

I have 14/36 of these Sept. orgy days girls.  No hope for a 100 omni-gem chest.

The boss girls are all MP girls, and temporarily available in the EP.

I have 2/7 of the boss girls, 1/2 of the champion girls, and the mission girl (Teacher Deitra).

1. Ninja Spy: Candy Maker Tiana (9/3/2018)
2. LARP Geekete (9/3/2017)✔️
3. Edwarda: Solange (9/1/2020) (Blonde/Dark Pink hair)
4. Niki Vignae  (9/3/2017)✔️
5. Bremen: College Honey and Greta (9/14/2022) (Pink/Blue hair/eyes)
6. Roko: Monk Hannah (9/1/2021)
7. Karole: Katra (9/1/2021)
8. Barbarian Lola (9/1/2021)✔️
9. Champion Matsuda: Sorority Sister Mavin (9/1/2019)

A lot of the girls are playful, which is fine w/ me, b/c I still need 10 more of those girls for my passives.  If there were eccentric girls, I'd prioritize them.

Any version of Honey and Greta are great, b/c they have dual hair/eye colors.  Imagine if they had 5-6 stars.  I'll go after College Honey and Greta first (have 19% already).  Then, Solange.  I always liked her, she has dual hair colors, and I prefer her physical passive bonus.  I like Monk Hannah too, but doubt there'll be enough time to get a 3rd girl.  I'm starting at the 5th Stage w/ Matsuda, so I don't expect to get Sorority Sister Mavin.

The event lasts 5 days, for 270 CP regen (54 CP * 5 days).  Enough time for at least 1 girl.

Orgy Days (Monthly): 1-12 shards.  10% drop rate.  ~6.5 avg drop.  ~16 drops needed per girl.  ~160 CP per girl.

I also appreciate the 5 min daily missions.

If there wasn't an event, I'd want to farm sensual gems from Finalmecia, since Lavender is 69% blessed atm.

After getting 100 girls of an element, additional ones no longer increase your passives.  Still nice to get them for the collection, but makes sense to chase after girls w/ elements you're missing.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Ravi-Sama

[Zteev]

I already have the Champion & Mission girls, so just a few to get.

First priority: Katra - on Karole.
Had 25 shards going in, and was close to done (90+) the Tier 3 girl on Karole. I need this color of gems, easy choice.

Second Priority: Monk Hannah - on Roko Sensei
Working on getting to Tier 3 on this boss, so makes sense to do fights here. Also drops a somewhat needed gem color for meHowever this girl is not as good as the next one.

Third Priority: College Honey and Greta - Bremen
Double the girls = double the pleasure & colors, but Bremen is finished for me, and drops Purple gems, of which I have a plethora.

 

[holymolly]

A bit early this time around but since I only needed the 2 new girls :

[OmerB]

Ahh, I already had Teacher Deitra from past experience...

At least I'm having quite a good drop rate from the bosses and champions.

I'll almost surely get Geekette, I have good chance to get Sorority sister Mavin (I need 30 more shards) and I have 45 shards of Barbarian Lola (I somehow had 10 shard of her from the past and got 35 more from two tries).

From the bosses, I got very good shards drop rate of Geekette, waiting for the final drop. I had 55+ of Nikki Vignae somehow before, so I only need about 5 more drops.

I also had pretty good drops of Katra, but I don't think that I will manage to get her in time without using kobans (which I probably won't).

But overall, I will be pleased with two boss girls and one girl from champion. That's a normal tally from 5 orgy days event 😃

 

Edited September 17, 2022 by OmerB
shortening the post

[Miccia]

This is the last time I try to take a girl from the champions. Eight fights with Matsuda (one final) and no fragments. It just seems like a big tease.

[bolitho76]

I'm a bit irritated. "Eight fights.. (one final)" mean that you spend 8 tickets or that you had finished 8 stages, on time the 5th stage of the Champ? Your wording is a little bit uncommon in game-terms so I want to ask.

If you had done 8 stages than you had a very bad streak, because of the longtime reports we get until now from various players we can expect a 50% chance of drops. Sadly RNG is a bitch and a bad streak of 7 false and not true in a line is uncommon, but possible.

[Miccia]

8 stages. In my experience maybe 50% is in the event at the beginning of the month, but in the Orgy Days I always found a very bad drop.

Modify: now 9 stages, hundreds of tickets and no fragments.

 

Edited September 18, 2022 by Miccia

[430i]

13 hours ago, Miccia said:

8 stages. In my experience maybe 50% is in the event at the beginning of the month, but in the Orgy Days I always found a very bad drop.

For what is worth, I have a similar observation. During CE I have a drop rate of 42,5%, but during OD it drops to 25%. Maybe I am just an outlier, maybe I am bound for a very lucky streak, or maybe those are just the real probabilities... Who knows 🤷

[DvDivXXX]

You guys have taken into account that CE lasts twice as long as OD, and that your samples are even tinier for OD, thus less likely to be representative of the overall odds, right? It's 50% every time everywhere for both formats. It's just that you can already miss out on the girl if you have a statistically normal bad run even on CE, so you can only ever get the girl from a champ in OD with a super good streak. The expected result for OD is to get somewhere between zilch and maybe one 35% drop.

PS: You can try this at home. Take a coin and a notepad. Toss the coin 10 times in a row a few times, and note how many of those 10-roll streaks included at least 3 heads. Then do the same but this time you toss the coin only 5 times for each run.  

[Ravi-Sama]

I got College Honey and Greta & have 92 shards for Solange.  I'll buy CP to get her by the end, if I have to.

Fighting Matsuda for Sorority Sister Mavin:
S5: N/A
S1: 0%.  Got some "Hanami Sake."
S2: Didn't beat him yet.

I figure there's a 50% chance I'll get 35 shards for Mavin.

Also, if OD is just a 5 day event, you didn't start at stage 5 like I did, and you manage to beat Matsuda daily, I figure you can fight him 3-4 times, w/o using kobans to revive him early.  The probability of a 50% shard drop occurring once in 3-4 tries is 87.5-93.75%.  Even just 2 tries is 75%.  The probability of a 50% shard drop, 3 times in a row, is just 12.5% (or 1/8 odds).  Meaning, you'll likely get 35% shards for a champion girl during an OD, but 100% will need kobans for more attempts.  Not worth it.  I don't get my hopes up.

[jpanda]

Probably won't help anyone this late into the event, but I got my hands on Monk Hannah and she did not look familiar at all but this seemed not the main girl so I checked and I did have (Alt.) Hannah but her artwork is not only (IMO) totally different but was one of those displeasing ones I semi-cringe to look at.

In case anyone was balking on getting her (Monk Hannah) because of her "original" incarnation, IMO this iteration shows what they could have done with the girl had the art been better (tho IMO the "story" scenes are a little cheesy, the art is still good) and I thought worth the time (combat) spent.

[Ravi-Sama]

19 minutes ago, jpanda said:

Probably won't help anyone this late into the event, but I got my hands on Monk Hannah and she did not look familiar at all but this seemed not the main girl so I checked and I did have (Alt.) Hannah but her artwork is not only (IMO) totally different but was one of those displeasing ones I semi-cringe to look at.

In case anyone was balking on getting her (Monk Hannah) because of her "original" incarnation, IMO this iteration shows what they could have done with the girl had the art been better (tho IMO the "story" scenes are a little cheesy, the art is still good) and I thought worth the time (combat) spent.

I didn't get Alt. Hannah yet, but I love Monk Hannah's art so I agree w/ you.  It's more detailed, creative, and reminds me of an RPG, or fantasy anime.  The "Alt." girls are generally remnants, or ports from the Hentai Clicker (HC) game.  Most of the KC girls are too.  I usually dislike them, except for a few.  I haven't watched her anime yet, but I've heard about it, Uzaki-chan Wants to Hang Out!  Seems to be about a petite girl w/ huge oppai.

Edited September 18, 2022 by Ravi-Sama

[TeeJay]

4 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

PS: You can try this at home. Take a coin and a notepad. Toss the coin 10 times in a row a few times, and note how many of those 10-roll streaks included at least 3 heads. Then do the same but this time you toss the coin only 5 times for each run.  

Hmmmm, I tried this as you suggested but they all came up Heads.

See, watch...

Heads

Heads

Heads

Heads

See? I've done it sixty-seven times now. Should I try flipping monkeys now?

[Joker555]

I had 85 Barbarian Lola shards at the start of the event and was at stage 0 on Romero.
Its the last day of the event, I just finished 4th stage and I still have 85 shards, lol
For Sorority Sister Mavin situation was "better". Started at 0, finished stage 4. Got 2 drops, so I'm not getting her either, but its "something"
Don't really like Lola, especially compared to Mavin, but its upsetting that I wasn't able to get either
Tbh girls on champions almost always disappointed me in terms of drops, last classic event I even spent kobans and finished 7 "applicable" stages trying to get the girl with good art, but it didn't help. I don't really see what's the problem with being able to get drop from last stage either.

[430i]

5 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

You guys have taken into account that CE lasts twice as long as OD, and that your samples are even tinier for OD, thus less likely to be representative of the overall odds, right? It's 50% every time everywhere for both formats. It's just that you can already miss out on the girl if you have a statistically normal bad run even on CE, so you can only ever get the girl from a champ in OD with a super good streak. The expected result for OD is to get somewhere between zilch and maybe one 35% drop.

PS: You can try this at home. Take a coin and a notepad. Toss the coin 10 times in a row a few times, and note how many of those 10-roll streaks included at least 3 heads. Then do the same but this time you toss the coin only 5 times for each run.  

You forget that most times people have more than one girl available on champions during OD. Case in point, I have a lot more champion attempts during OD than CE. And I am talking about the drop rate and not about acquiring the girl, so event duration has very little influence on that. Even if the even was one day long, given enough tries you can build a good sample size and estimate the drop probability.

[bolitho76]

In the feedback thread for champion drops there are for Orgy Days 93 reported stages with chance to drop (I excluded your reports, because I excluded the anniversary event with it's 8 days against 5 days for OD and also used only Main-server reports) and 42 reported drops from 27 girls. 11 times were 4 or 5 stages with chance to drop fought, 12 times 3 stages and 4 times only 2. In most reports we had the situation that the player stopped fighting after some stages in a situation that he had no chance to get the girl without refreshing the Champ at least one time. In OD you will have much more often theese kind of ending than in CE.

From theese reports 93 trys to 42 drops it's highly possible that the droprate is 50%. It seems that you had a very unlucky time at OD-Champs so far.

 

Edited September 18, 2022 by bolitho76

[DvDivXXX]

Thanks, Bolitho. But as usual, you're too generous. And even that cumulative sample of 93 from the community thread is still a very small sample statistically speaking (not even a hundred!). These guys are talking about their own samples, which are most likely a few dozens tops. Meaningless.

In all seriousness: people who don't understand how probabilities work or how to properly make estimates for them, stop posting about it here. I'll delete such posts. You can search it online, but typically for this type of things, people who have to ask will never know. Either way, I don't want any further derailing of this thread with ignorant bullshit based on confirmation bias, storytelling and superstition over a couple of meaningless samples. THANKS.

---------------

4 hours ago, jpanda said:

(Alt.) Hannah but her artwork is not only (IMO) totally different but was one of those displeasing ones I semi-cringe to look at.

Any and all girls with the prefix "Alt." in front of their name are originally from the Hentai Clicker variant of the Haremverse. 99.9% of them are directly copied,  pasted, cropped and reframed from the HCL art, which was very different in style than most of HH's native art, and also had a massive variance in quality. Only a few exceptions were at least partially made or heavily reworked for HH, and by HH standards (mostly Alt. Finalmecia and Alt. Lyrsa). So this is no coincidence, just so you know. This includes all the KC girls, and more.

[Julius Fox]

Really like Monk Hannah but decided to go for College Honey and Greta first since I need purple gems much more than red gems. After a slow start (1 shard from my first 50 fights) my luck picked up and I was able to get them by the end of Day 3. I got halfway through Hannah with my remaining natural regen and finished her off with a few refills (one less girl in my Epic Pachinko pool seemed worth a few hundred kobans since I liked her anyway). I also made some good progress toward the permanent girls on Fredy and Bremen, which is a nice bonus of these events that don't require SP.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Julius Fox

[TeeJay]

So, how about something different about Champions...

 

I need some help.
I'm trying to beat Matsuda so I can, hopefully, get the final 35 shard drop before the night ends.

This challenge uses only 2 positions, both of which are Charm:
Column
Nose Dive

With the following pattern

C N N C N

My girls are currently in this pattern

  C     N     N      X     N
18.3 43.1 40.3 17.7 30.6
                         KN

 C      N      N     X      N
19.0 28.0 27.2 20.2 27.2
                         KN

The two X are other positions and their specialty is Knowhow

They're all at max upgrade and level 400 save one, which is 350 (I don't have the gems to push her higher).

Unfortunately, Matsuda's girl's special position is Nosedive and she's taking me out in four hits.

I'm currently getting between 300k to 500k per round.

I could use a suggested alternative pattern of positions.
I was thinking of swapping out for some Hardcore but I don't think replacing the special position bonus with just a hardcore bonus would increase the attack value that much.
And the def from charm doesn't seem able to counteract the devastation of her attack (plus her charm def as well, I suppose).

Or, am I just basically hosed?

[jpanda]

14 minutes ago, TeeJay said:

So, how about something different about Champions...

 

I need some help.
I'm trying to beat Matsuda so I can, hopefully, get the final 35 shard drop before the night ends.

This challenge uses only 2 positions, both of which are Charm:
Column
Nose Dive

With the following pattern

C N N C N

My girls are currently in this pattern

  C     N     N      X     N
18.3 43.1 40.3 17.7 30.6
                         KN

 C      N      N     X      N
19.0 28.0 27.2 20.2 27.2
                         KN

The two X are other positions and their specialty is Knowhow

They're all at max upgrade and level 400 save one, which is 350 (I don't have the gems to push her higher).

Unfortunately, Matsuda's girl's special position is Nosedive and she's taking me out in four hits.

I'm currently getting between 300k to 500k per round.

I could use a suggested alternative pattern of positions.
I was thinking of swapping out for some Hardcore but I don't think replacing the special position bonus with just a hardcore bonus would increase the attack value that much.
And the def from charm doesn't seem able to counteract the devastation of her attack (plus her charm def as well, I suppose).

Or, am I just basically hosed?

IIUC, matching position is basically x2 the number shown.  Maybe obvious but the girls after you're dead don't matter at all, so IMO you're better off.

  C     N     N      C     N
19.0 43.1 40.3 18.3 30.6

 (N)      N      N     X      X
28.0 27.2  27.2 20.2 17.7
                         KN    KN

where 19x2=38 and 18.3x2=36.6

so essentially that'd be: 38 86.2 80.6 36.6 61.2 28 52.4 52.4 20.2 17.7

Whether it's better to have the 43.1 (i.e. 43.1 > 38) in the non-slot is something I've debated myself for a while and as recently as today.  I usually just slot the girls where they match due to laziness but ultimately I think it matters how far you're making it (you've done that analysis) and to some degree the element (KH will give you HP back and CH protect you from damage so might move those up...but again unsure).  Similar debate with the second rank swapping the 28 with the 27.2 (gaining you 1.6...if you live to the 7th girl=)).

I agree on not replacing the matches, especially in the first 5.  When to replace the second rank and when to accept it is something I struggle with as well.  My own personal strategy is sort of hard to explain but TLDR (& may not make sense because of it) I "accept" lower stat girls the fewer rerolls I have.

Whatever you decide, good luck

Edited September 19, 2022 by jpanda
switched numbers for consistency

[TeeJay]

1 hour ago, jpanda said:

Whatever you decide, good luck

Thanks.

I see what you mean, I'll give it a shot and see what happens.

....

Well, after two rounds it looks like maybe closer to 600K? I just work with the whole big numbers rounding but that may have given me a touch more omph on that round 4 with the Column there. Still, a long ways battle to go.

Thanks again.

 

Update...

It's now midnight. 4 hours left. I've reached 9.5millon on Mastuda. I've lost count of the battles. The goal is just  a smidge under 19million, so I'm halfway there.

Edited September 19, 2022 by TeeJay

[OmerB]

On 9/16/2022 at 10:45 PM, OmerB said:

I'll almost surely get Geekette, I have good chance to get Sorority sister Mavin (I need 30 more shards) and I have 45 shards of Barbarian Lola (I somehow had 10 shard of her from the past and got 35 more from two tries).

From the bosses, I got very good shards drop rate of Geekette, waiting for the final drop. I had 55+ of Nikki Vignae somehow before, so I only need about 5 more drops.

I also had pretty good drops of Katra, but I don't think that I will manage to get her in time without using kobans (which I probably won't).

But overall, I will be pleased with two boss girls and one girl from champion. That's a normal tally from 5 orgy days event 😃

 

I've got Geekette, Nikki Vignae and 80 shards of Katra (not sure if I should persue more with the time and amount of CP that's left).

I'm fighting now to get the last drops of Barbatian Lola and Mavin (both at stage 4), hoping that I won't fall asleep and make it on time.

[Liliat]

Il y a 1 heure, Miccia a dit :

Here we are far beyond bad luck.

1 in a thousand chances. That's just normal bad luck, when you repeat the probability so many times (Let's say, 18 times per month for... 6 months?, multiplied by the number of players who report results...). It's bound to happen to someone (Even several players).

That's bad luck for you, yes, but still totally expected.