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[ July 20th, 2023 ] SER #2 - Cum Again


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40 minuti fa, jelom ha scritto:

Well, my recent forecast of two SE in parallel was just so similar to this two short SE revival in the same month, that now I am afraid to try to guess what the game will bring to us in the future.

oh jelom of the forum, what is your wisdom?

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On 7/21/2023 at 11:35 PM, jelom said:

 now I am afraid to try to guess what the game will bring to us in the future.

On 7/22/2023 at 12:17 AM, Antimon said:

oh jelom of the forum, what is your wisdom?

Maybe jelom should take a look in Ravi's Crystal Balls? 🔎
Four Eyes (fore)see more than two. 🤓

Edited by Der DinX
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Serious question, here (well request for advice, rather)... I have 8.6k kobans and 10 SPs right now. I won't be getting fresh resources before August, except for tomorrow's league rewards (I know I shouldn't, but I'm actually cautiously optimistic this should be a win, so up to 7.2k hopefully; I really don't see any scenario in which I don't get at least a top 4, so at least 4.7k). I'm playing the current PoA slower and in a more economical way than I ever have (and the koban path isn't even a consideration).

Spoiler

image.png

Golden Bunny's Mom is the only girl I'm missing in this SER, and if I can't get her I see no point in getting any of the koban cards. Empty girl slots are just one extra EPx10 for me, which I don't really need let alone value thousands of kobans.

EDIT: I forgot to tell you where I'm at on the SER reward track! ^^ I'm here (knowing I haven't taken the free card yet; I prefer to pick it up all at once on the last day than having extra daily popups during the event):

image.png

I'm going for Estelle all the way, and skipping Noemy's MDR (I'll still grab whatever few shards I can, but I won't spend kobans for it).

With the above in mind, is there:

  1. Any hope in hell I can somehow make it all the way up to unlocking Golden Bunny's Mom?
  2. Any other reason I should consider getting either or both of the koban cards?

Thanks in advance, folks. I expect the answer to both questions is a big nope, but just in case I'd rather have a second opinion (or more). 🙏

 

Edited by DvDivXXX
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14 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Any hope in hell I can somehow make it all the way up to unlocking Golden Bunny's Mom?

Last SER with MDR (got her) + LD (only got 40 shards of both) I quite precisely ended at the 3rd girl, after also claiming some champion last stage kiss rewards. And it did contain KC as well, and I don't think that PoA gives more extra kisses than one claims for KC, and season (kiss) rewards are all claimed already. So as long as you do not go for Noemy as well, I see no chance to get Golden Bunny's Mom without at least the big card. Even for Golden Harry you might need at least a small number of extra refills.

Edited by Horsting
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26 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

How much points do you have at the moment? How much rewards from Season, PoV, PoG, PoA etc. are expectable until the event ends? That were two helpfull informations to make a meaningfull advice.

Sorry, you're very right. I've already edited my previous post to add the info as to where I'm at on the SER right now. As for the other things:

  • PoA: everything is up for grabs EDIT: from the free path only, that is (and I'm fine with using everything and not stashing for next month if it means getting Golden Bunny's Mom)
     
  • PoV: same as above, except that I'm planning on spending the 3.6k on it in August (I think it would hurt my chances for SER more than it would help right now). Also, I've barely started gaining points for it with the first few shards I just got from Estelle today, and I have no other sources of shards to expect before the end of SER except for the two free path PoA girls.
     
  • PoG: nothing useful to expect, it's very early on for that reward track, I'm not getting the koban path and there's no rewards that could help with SER on the free track until a couple of weeks.
     
  • Season: I've already claimed and used up everything except for Energy, which doesn't give any points for SER either.

EDIT: Also just to clarify my secondary question: I haven't spent any koban on Estelle's MDR yet (just a few quick fights from natural regen so far) and I'd like to make sure whether it's a better idea to grab the SER koban card(s) or just spend my kobans directly on refills for the MDR before I start spending.

Edited by DvDivXXX
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1 hour ago, Horsting said:

So as long as you do not go for Noemy as well, I see no chance to get Golden Bunny's Mom without at least the big card. Even for Golden Harry you might need at least a small number of extra refills.

I'm willing to grab both SER koban cards if it allows me to secure Estelle's MDR while giving me a decent shot at reaching Golden Bunny's Mom. I wouldn't be opposed to spending every last koban I have and will gain in the next three days if that's enough to secure Golden Bunny's Mom (certainly wouldn't mind getting Noemy if I could afford it or even just spending every last koban I can on refills during her MDR if that helps as well). I have no delusion that there will be a hope in hell of achieving that in my situation without the koban cards (or without spending every last koban I have for July).

It's just that I'm not quite sure even that will be enough to reach that goal. And I already have the other three girls in this SER, so it's either Golden Bunny's Mom or nothing for me. That's why I'm giving it serious consideration now and would love as much advice and estimations as possible before taking either direction.

Thanks again.

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With both cards, there should be no issue. Although, if you use their 120 CP rewards for NYE, there is some synergy I did not have last SER. So probably best to do some math with CP+kiss regeneration+rewards and assuming an average MDR drop rate to estimate the amount of refills for NYE.

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Simulating what you said, here is the result I get :image.thumb.png.8cbf9d12d74ed520deb5ed4f679988bb.png

For the current currency, I have added 7 days for free card because I did not plan to not getting it.

It's considering you have won every point from natural regen today too (7 days gone, when we are midway of the 7).

Add to that the fists you will buy for NYE and you have an estimate of where you will be with all cards.

The interesting lines are the 4 bottom left one (with the 2nd column which should probably be highlighted).

Edited by mdnoria
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@mdnoria Thanks a bunch, this is very helpful! ❤️

Past daily rewards from the event cards are not "gone", though (I'm sure you know that and you don't mean "gone" as in "lost", but just to give a better overview of what I can expect):

image.png

image.png

I have 12 Fists and 0 Kiss right now.

I have claimed neither the daily missions (and the 150 kobans thereof) nor the daily goals chest yet for today either (they're ready, I'm just not claiming them to try and time it well for PoA's tasks). So another 6 Fists plus whatever the amount of SER points a full set of daily goal chests gives (I don't remember exactly, something like 12? maybe 15?). It seems to be missing from your spreadsheet, unless it's taken into account somewhere else I haven't figured out?

Sorry, I'm a bit stressed out from anticipation right now. Are you saying there's a chance? 🙏

-------

22 minutes ago, Horsting said:

probably best to do some math

Which is my kryptonite. Hence my trying to charm you guys into doing some maths for me. :$

Le chat potté GIF - Trouver sur GIFER

Edited by DvDivXXX
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1117 at the moment, from todays natural regen I add 63 points (combativity & Kisses) not more because I expect you have claimed Daily Goals and done all fights in League => 1170

Next 3 days are: 186 (because of League start with aditional 15 tokens, 169 from natural regen and 2 from the one Kiss in the daily free bundle), 2x171 that means 528 points from gameplay =>1698

The three cards let you go up to a)1350 crystals, 150 combativity and 90 Kisses; in total up to 1830 points => 3528

From the expectable rewards there are perhaps 30-50 points gainable. From natural regen and the cards ca. 200 expectable combativity will be covered, so 500 more is needed. Theese all can be added as 550 points to the total => 4078 points

So you are ca. 400-450 points to short to get the girl. With the expected spending for cards and the 500 combativity for NYE you have to invest ca. 12K Koban. For this you have surely enough Koban. For the aditional ca. 5K Koban you would need to get the last 400-450 points you're a little bit short.

 

Edited by bolitho76
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Rewards from daily goal chest are what's called "daily goals/d" so 26 considering last thread OP by Ravi (I did not check if this was this value exactly, so trusting Ravi on this) :

And yeah, like Bolitho76 just said, you seem to be missing something like 400-450 crystals if you add ~550-600 bought fists for NYE.

I forgot to add in extra currency the league fists reward for tomorrow too.

You need to subtract 6 season fights too so 12 points, it is considering my silver card in it.

Edited by mdnoria
1. league fists reward / 2. season fights from silver card
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21 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

I expect you have [...] done all fights in League

17 minutes ago, mdnoria said:

I forgot to add in extra currency the league fists reward for tomorrow too.

Yes I've finished the current league already. I'll have plenty of fights to play in the next one starting tomorrow, though.

So it seems... super mega tight but maybe just maybe barely possible if I manage to squeeze every last bit of Xtal value from everything? Or just outright a lost cause unless I inject some fresh kobans into my account (which I absolutely can't these days, unfortunately)?

Thank you both (and @Horsting too ofc) for your help and support. I'm still hoping to see @Ravi-Sama (and/or anyone else) jump in with an insane spreadsheet of his own telling me that I CAN DO IT. 🙏🙏🙏 Wishful thinking or desperation? Why not both. ^^

When you guys say I'd be ~5k kobans short, is that taking into account my potential +7.2k from tomorrow's league rewards? (Of course in the worst-case scenario where someone somehow remained under my radar the whole week and does a perfect 24+ average rush by tomorrow's reset to dethrone me, then I'd be 2.5k shorter).

EDIT: Come to think of it, it looks like I should wait for tomorrow's actual league rewards before I spend any kobans either way.

Edited by DvDivXXX
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2 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

So it seems... super mega tight but maybe just maybe barely possible if I manage to squeeze every last bit of Xtal value from everything? Or just outright a lost cause unless I inject some fresh kobans to my account?

 

3 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

When you guys say I'd be ~5k kobans short, is that taking into account my potential +7.2k from tomorrow's league rewards? (Of course in the worst-case scenario where someone somehow remained under my radar the whole week and does a perfect 24+ average rush by tomorrow's reset to dethrone me, then I'd be 2.5k shorter).

Had this earlier as Edit in my last post but because of your questions I add this as new post here:

 With the newest informations I can change my calculation a little bit:

18 fists available (storaged and Daily Goals) + 34 combativity + 34 Kissespoints (17 Kisses) +26 from the chests to a base of 1151 => baseline isn't 1170, it's 1260 and so +90 points more.

That reduce the amount at the end by ca. 1K Koban (4K for aditional ressources) but sadly...

Only if you get 1st in League there is a chance to get Bunnys Mom while you go all in. With a top4 today in League you would be around 14K Koban (ca. 9K actual + 4,7K reward and some (Daily) Koban in the next days) - not enough for 6K Koban for cards, 5-6K Koban for NYE combativity and the aditional ca 4K for the last ca. 400 points.

The 600 Daily Koban + 180 Koban from visiting the other games (in the next 3 days) with a 1st place in League should be enough (9K+7,2+0,8 = ca. 17K, needed ca. 16K)

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3 ore fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto:

Serious question, here (well request for advice, rather)... I have 8.6k kobans and 10 SPs right now. I won't be getting fresh resources before August, except for tomorrow's league rewards (I know I shouldn't, but I'm actually cautiously optimistic this should be a win, so up to 7.2k hopefully; I really don't see any scenario in which I don't get at least a top 4, so at least 4.7k). I'm playing the current PoA slower and in a more economical way than I ever have (and the koban path isn't even a consideration).

  Contenuti nascosti

image.png

Golden Bunny's Mom is the only girl I'm missing in this SER, and if I can't get her I see no point in getting any of the koban cards. Empty girl slots are just one extra EPx10 for me, which I don't really need let alone value thousands of kobans.

EDIT: I forgot to tell you where I'm at on the SER reward track! ^^ I'm here (knowing I haven't taken the free card yet; I prefer to pick it up all at once on the last day than having extra daily popups during the event):

image.png

I'm going for Estelle all the way, and skipping Noemy's MDR (I'll still grab whatever few shards I can, but I won't spend kobans for it).

With the above in mind, is there:

  1. Any hope in hell I can somehow make it all the way up to unlocking Golden Bunny's Mom?
  2. Any other reason I should consider getting either or both of the koban cards?

Thanks in advance, folks. I expect the answer to both questions is a big nope, but just in case I'd rather have a second opinion (or more). 🙏

 

Quote

reaching the 4th girl in this sb revival should cost at the very least ~18k kobans (5940 kobans for the kobans cards + ~12,2k kobans in refill to get those 1130 missing xtals)

This ^ still stands as the cheapest investment of kobans needed in order to reach the 4th girl milestone. A first place in DIII tomorrow should bring you at 15800 total kobans. If you did not already do ~2200 kobans of refills in this past 7 days (or used free rewards in CPs and kisses that have a similar worth in kobans), reaching Bunny's mom could be quite hard without any external help

Edited by Antimon
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Buying the 2 koban cards tomorrow for NYE's MDR would grant 2,727 Xtals total, including just 120 CP.  They cost 5,940 kos, but just give 120 CP.  That's super lame, and only makes sense if going for GB's Mom.  I seriously don't think it's worth it.  She's just 1 playful L5.  She's drawn by Venus, and has magical dildos popping in and out of existence, but she's still paywalled imo.

@DvDivXXX's Xtal count w/o the free card: 1,151
Free card: 150 Xtals
Medium Card: 510 Xtals
Big Card: 1020 Xtals
3-4 remaining days of daily rewards: 513-684 Xtals, if you count today.

1151+150+510+1020+(513 or 684)=

That's a total of 3,344-3,515 Xtals.  Which is 985-1,156 Xtals short, from GB's Mom's 4,500 Xtals.

985-1,156 Xtals costs 10,638-12,485 kobans.
The 2 cards cost 5,940 kos.
That's a total of 16,578-18,425 kobans needed.

Div has 8.6k kos atm, and if he gets a top 4 in leagues it'll rise to 13,364 kos, and a 1st place will be 15,818 kos.
Assuming he gets 1st w/ his 23.95 avg, that's no where near the 16.5k to 18.4k kos it'd cost, so I think it's a lost cause, which will bankrupt him until Aug 1st.

Personally, I have 1,133 Xtals atm w/ the free card, and much higher Koban reserves at 26.3k kos, since I'm used to playing frugally, but I'm not even considering going for her, b/c a single L5 simply isn't worth that much (~18k kos).  I decided that at the beginning.  If she was the 3rd girl, I'd definitely do it, but just the 4th girl isn't worth 18k kos, if you already have the first 3.  I'd rather pursue NYE, then the new Aug 3rd M6, Alexa, and EM Bianca.  There's also a DP next month, and there might be another SE, so plenty of stuff to save for, and I'd rather not bankrupt myself at the start.

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48 minutes ago, Ravi-Sama said:

I seriously don't think it's worth it.  She's just 1 playful L5.  She's drawn by Venus, and has magical dildos popping in and out of existence, but she's still paywalled imo.

48 minutes ago, Ravi-Sama said:

Assuming he gets 1st w/ his 23.95 avg, that's no where near the 16.5k to 18.4k kos it'd cost, so I think it's a lost cause, which will bankrupt him until Aug 1st.

Thanks a bunch, bro. You rock hard. (Thanks again to everyone else who helped me through this decision too, I can't stress enough how much I appreciate you either, you beautiful souls ❤️ ). I just needed the Ravi treatment to make über duper sure.

I think this is exactly the harsh reality check I needed and was unwittingly looking for deep down, even though a part of me(*) was in the same kind of "fuck everything, I want that fucking paywalled Venus series!" mode as I was with Selena a few weeks ago, and ready to throw everything I have left at it if it was at least doable.

*(no, not that part... well, fair enough... parts of me, then ^^ life is hard, and so am I)

You're totally right, of course, especially knowing what you and I both know is coming soon but can't reasonably divulge here yet. I've identified the situation correctly on day one of this SER, after all: they put the former paywall in the most expensive slot, knowing that any non-whale realistically going for her would already have the other three girls, making her cost 18k fucking kobans all on her own. Which is ridiculously overpriced, even if it's technically less offensively out of reach than 150+ real-world bucks as is the base cost for the 4th girl in a regular SE. That was a big fat dick move, especially after giving us false hopes that they might place her on the affordable 3rd slot instead given how they placed girls in the first SER immediately before this one.

And the only reasonable move I ever had left as soon as I saw this was to suppress a cry and pass up on this so-called "revival". Especially after already struggling a fair bit more than usual throughout this month because I've burned 11k on my Selena craving in the previous SE (which was technically an unreasonable move I made, although it's one of the best series ever from Venus, she's amazing and I regret nothing).

Alright. Sigh. So then there's absolutely no reason whatsoever for me to do anything more about this SER than pick up the free card and grab whatever side rewards I happen to unlock, I guess. Right? I'll be much better off just spending my kobans on refills for this MDR and forget this SER #2 was ever a thing (since, after all, it never really was, at least in my situation). Right?

Right? :/🚬

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4 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

I'm going for Estelle all the way, and skipping Noemy's MDR (I'll still grab whatever few shards I can, but I won't spend kobans for it).

I'd go for MN in your case, cuz you could afford her for sure, compared to the 4th girl in a SER.  She'd cost like 1/3rd of that (6k kos, and you already have the SP).

That's what I would do, but I know you love Venus' art, so t'was a tough choice.

The 4th girl is still too expensive at 18k kos.  It's really ~12k kos if the first 3 girls were new.  That's still more than a mythic girl... and we expect more on the way.

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18 minuti fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto:

You're totally right, of course, especially knowing what you and I both know is coming soon but can't reasonably divulge here yet.

Ngl, after this and what you wrote in the girls' skills topic, my anxiety level skyrocketed and it is now landing on Jupiter

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I don't know, but it's possible to buy league fights instead of CP (in the limit of ~175 fights considering natural regen at the end of the SE, you would be depleted of league fights at the end of the event in 3 days until next Thursday) which costs 13 kobans for 2 Xtals instead of 11 for 1 (going for CP/Kisses).

So 350 extra Xtals from bought league fights (2275 kobans for 175 fights), ~500 extra Xtals for NYE (5500 kobans), you are now missing 150 Xtals so 150 CP (1650 kobans).

Total = 15365 required kobans (1980 small card + 3960 big card + 2275 extra league fights + 5500 NYE CP + 1650 missing Xtals CP)

The drawback I see from buying league fights is you're probably forfeiting a top 4 in the next league for probably a top 15 because you will be forced to fight boosted players.

Also, it's considering you win every PvP fight.

So yeah, like Ravi said, it looks like going bankrupt considering your actual kobans.

Edited by mdnoria
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9 minuti fa, mdnoria ha scritto:

I don't know, but it's possible to buy league fights instead of CP (in the limit of ~175 fights considering natural regen at the end of the SE, you would be depleted of league fights at the end of the event in 3 days until next Thursday) which costs 13 kobans for 2 Xtals instead of 11 for 1 (going for CP/Kisses).

League fights give you 1 xtal per victory so the xtals they give are not cheaper than those you can get using CPs.

Season fights give 2, but given that 10 kisses cost exactly like 20 CPs, it is better going for CPs (Since you certainly will always win against villains, but you could lose sometimes in pvp)

Edited by Antimon
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il y a 6 minutes, Antimon a dit :

league fights give you 1 xtal per victory. Season fights give 2, but given that 10 kisses cost exactly like 20 CPs, it is better going for CPs (given the fact that CPs are always certain victory)

Yeah sorry for the oversight on my part. my natural regen formula was good, not the extra fights one so costlier than I previously wrote. I now arrive at 16940 kobans with buying 1k CP for the missing 1000 Xtals.

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49 minutes ago, Antimon said:

Season fights give 2, but given that 10 kisses cost exactly like 20 CPs, it is better going for CPs (Since you certainly will always win against villains, but you could lose sometimes in pvp)

37 minutes ago, mdnoria said:

Yeah sorry for the oversight on my part. my natural regen formula was good, not the extra fights one so costlier than I previously wrote. I now arrive at 16940 kobans with buying 1k CP for the missing 1000 Xtals.

True, and thank you both again for the extra help. It won't make a difference this time since the right call is definitely to sit this one out, now that I regained my senses thanks to this thread. But it's good advice for the no doubt many, many more SEs and likely precious few SERs coming our way later on.

53 minutes ago, mdnoria said:

So yeah, like Ravi said, it looks like going bankrupt considering your actual kobans.

Yes, definitely. I was pretty close to going for it anyway, and I really needed all of this to dig me out of the quicksand I was sinking into when I turned to you folks for help.

1 hour ago, Ravi-Sama said:

I'd go for MN in your case, cuz you could afford her for sure, compared to the 4th girl in a SER.  She'd cost like 1/3rd of that (6k kos, and you already have the SP).

Damn, you're absolutely right! This actually cheers me up. I had already given up weeks ago on any hope of going for both MDRs at the end of this month, so it didn't even occur to me that instead of selling the house for one paywalled L5 like I was contemplating today, I could simply go back on track with catching up on all Mythics, including Noemy! And for much cheaper too! ^^

Wow. Yeah, I'm 100% doing that instead. It's crazy I only realized this after you spelled it out for me... This goes to show the power art I really love can have on me. :$

I'm calling it now, by the way: no spoilers, but should a certain super well drawn girl with ankle bracelets 💫 and toe rings 🙏 end up in the Paywall slot in a future hypothetical SE sometimes in a hypothetical future (exactly like they already did to me with Fae Finalmecia a few months back V_v)... I might need help regaining my sanity once more... :ph34r:💢

55 minutes ago, Antimon said:

Ngl, after this and what you wrote in the girls' skills topic, my anxiety level skyrocketed and it is now landing on Jupiter

So sorry for stressing you out, man. Didn't mean to! Your recruits will become rentals that you need to unlock again for a measly 100k kobans after every fight using them, unless you get the new Unobtainium monthly card for €1,000 a month (a steal at -420 billion % value! ^^) that's all. Nothing to worry about. (Just to be clear that I'm joking: I'm joking!). ^^

Seriously though, there are more bad news coming our way, but nothing worse than any given couple of months for the past year or so. It's more the accumulation of all the red flags over time that's getting to me. I feel the general direction the game is going right now is what I personally consider straight to the wall at full speed, and that's bumming me out more than the individual steps to that perceived destination.

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21 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Seriously though, there are more bad news coming our way, but nothing worse than any given couple of months for the past year or so. It's more the accumulation of all the red flags over time that's getting to me. I feel the general direction the game is going right now is what I personally consider straight to the wall at full speed, and that's bumming me out more than the individual steps to that perceived destination.

it's pretty sad, reading you write such things. Game developers that make their most dedicated players feel like this are a fucking embarassement to the industry to say the least. I can't help but compare this to situations with Path of Exile, a F2P hack&slash game, pretty much spiritual successor to Diablo 2. The game is complex as fuck, to the point where you need 3rd party tools for build planning, calculating, trading etc. There was a person who created a tool considered to be a must have for everyone. The devs behind PoE hired him for a couple of months to help on the game. Basically launched him into joining other studio later down the line.

This is probably the most extreme case but there were many other steps taken by the developers there to show the community that it matters. And yes, the game is F2P, which means that it's being funded by whales. I have 3k hours in PoE spent over many years and never felt like the game is being designed to milk those whales even more. It felt like a game made by devs who want to play their own game after their shift is done...

And then there's our situation with your comments today. With devs that reportedly don't play their own game? With voluntary mods and people pouring their passion into scripts and spreadsheets are feeling this way, how are we supposed to feel as normal players? Who is this game even for?

Sorry for running this off topic...

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Hum...

image.thumb.png.c05cb2991a15f86006b04db1f216e38b.png

As I'm going for Noemy, I started looking at the SER, and with "just" the big card, I'm really near getting Bunny's mom.

The only downside I'm seeing is going all in the first day of Noemy's revival :

  • Maybe discarding a guaranteed Top4 in Sunday's contest if fight villains (I tend to do ~50 shards the first day, 50 the second, except when really high demand like Finalmecia/Lenaelle/NYE/Norou)
  • Maybe buying 54 CP more the first day which I shouldn't buy if I was doing the MDR in 2 days (natural regen of second day)
  • That's about it from what I see

I have enough kobans available but I don't know if an L5, an MP6, 160 all colors gems and 2 random mythic equipment pieces is worth this much kobans (I will get the EvP and the EpP10 without buying any card).

And I don't know if the double MDR will also happen in the coming months or if it was only for the anniversaries months.

Next month MDR should be Elder Magus Bianca which I already have, and after that I'm only missing Love Note Jezebel and Summoner Salem from the newest mythic girls so I could spare some kobans for the SER.
After these 2 revivals, if we are only getting one MDR a month, I should be set for multiple months, except if it rolls over to old girls.

Edited by mdnoria
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