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jelom
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Odds are better than expected for a legendary.
I have had 208 fights (spent 1,231 kobans on buying 9 times). That's about the number of free fights during four days.
I am at 52 shards. I assumed this amount of fights to give me 15-20% of a legendary, so it's good to know that you can get 40-50% of a girl with free fights during four days.

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Event: Legendary Days:

Edwarda: 154 hits

Shards: 40 (6x1, 8x2, 6x3)

Other: 2x Legendary Flowers

Best 20x series: 8 shards (1x1, 2x2, 1x3) and 1x flowers

 

I'll keep editing this post with additional info, it's easier and at the end of the event i'll repost the full version.

Edited by Makinen
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249 fights - 61 shards at that point - got the 100 shard drop

By that time had spent 1,505 kobans (2,030 without promotion).
12 times 1 shard, 14 times 2 shards, 7 times 3 shards - based on that would say that the chances of 3 shards are lower
one 20 fight streak with 0 shards, best streak - 3 fights with shards.
Best 20-fight series - 6 fights with shards, typically 2 or 3 fights with shards out of 20.

Background: I have received 0 (zero) epic and legendary girls with free fights. Once tried to get an epic girl with boss fights, spent 5,400 kobans (during 35% off promotion) on fights, got nothing and stopped at that point. Since then I have never spent a single koban on boss fights - I just use the free fights and if I don't get the girl, then I don't get her (and history has shown I have never got any - my only free girls have been at 12-day events, never got any other drops anywhere. I have received 100% of 12/14-day girls for free).
So my play style has been to collect kobans and use them in epic panchinko for the guaranteed 5,400 drop. I do not spend kobans on anything else.

This is what I would have done at this legendary event - I would have done my 220 free fights during 4 days, not really expecting a drop and probably not getting it.
The new system made me spend 1,500 (2,000) kobans that I would have otherwise saved for epic pachinko. And gave me my first legendary.


Without the 100-shard drop, I would have spent around 2,500 due to the last day of the promotion to get to around 80-85 shards and then fought for three days to get to 100.
During non-promotion I would look at the shard count in the final day and decide then if it is worth spending on boss fights.

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9 hours ago, jelom said:

This is the detailed info for shards drops for Fabienne

<insert table here>

Why are there so many people who likes making tables that are full of numbers? That's seems like too much effort in number crunching for this game.

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20 hours ago, Lhans said:

Why are there so many people who likes making tables that are full of numbers? That's seems like too much effort in number crunching for this game. 

Why are there so many people who don't like numbers and came to these threads that are only about data recopilation? :P

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On 2/18/2019 at 7:12 AM, _shal_ said:

On a completely different note, between finishing the revival and the start of the Legendary event I went back to Finalmecia to make some more headway towards getting her final girl - and now I'm currently sitting on a shiny 70 battle no-shards streak there. B| I'll report back how long that ends up being eventually once I have time to return to her.

I have surpassed your mark: after getting Fabienne I am at 102 consecutive battles with Karole without a shard. 😱 Let's see how many will be in the end.

new edit: ... and finally at the 117th battle i got 1 shard for Rin. I doubt than anyone will ever break this record, but at least we have tested the limits of the new system.

Edited by jelom
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Fabienne completed right after the daily reset today, in:

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        6        6      1       1
  2       39       45      1       2
  3        3       48      3       5
  4        3       51      2       7
  5        6       57      3      10
  6        1       58      3      13
  7        8       66      1      14
  8        9       75      1      15
  9       13       88      3      18
 10        4       92      2      20
 11        3       95      3      23
 12        6      101      2      25
 13        8      109      2      27
 14       19      128      1      28
 15        2      130      3      31
 16        4      134      3      34
 17       15      149      1      35
 18        3      152      1      36
 19       13      165      3      39
 20        4      169      1      40
 21        2      171      1      41
 22        9      180      2      43
 23        9      189      2      45
 24        3      192      1      46
 25       25      217      2      48
 26        9      226      2      50
 27       14      240      1      51
 28       12      252      1      52
 29        7      259      3      55
 30       14      273      3      58
 31        6      279      1      59
 32        3      282      1      60
 33       34      316      2      62
 34       13      329      2      64
 35        3      332      3      67
 36        8      340      1      68
 37        2      342      2      70
 38        6      348      1      71
 39        2      350      2      73
 40       13      363      3      76
 41        9      372      1      77
 42        2      374      3      80
 43       25      399      2      82
 44        4      403      1      83
 45        3      406      2      85
 46       21      427      2      87
 47       10      437      3      90
 48        4      441      2      92
 49        6      447      1      93
 50        8      455      1      94
 51        6      461      1      95
 52       24      485      3      98
 53       11      496      1      99
 54        9      505      3     102
Averages   9.4             1.9    

Slightly above-average luck in the battle counts, slightly below in the actual drop numbers.

Edited by _shal_
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On 2/18/2019 at 7:12 AM, _shal_ said:

On a completely different note, between finishing the revival and the start of the Legendary event I went back to Finalmecia to make some more headway towards getting her final girl - and now I'm currently sitting on a shiny 70 battle no-shards streak there. B| I'll report back how long that ends up being eventually once I have time to return to her.

Mercifully, this ended quickly now that I've returned to Finalmecia - drop on battle 72.

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On 2/18/2019 at 10:08 PM, Makinen said:

Event: Legendary Days:

Edwarda: 158 hits

Shards: 40 (6x1, 8x2, 6x3)

Other: 2x Legendary Flowers

Best 20x series: 8 shards (1x1, 2x2, 1x3) and 1x flowers

 

I'll keep editing this post with additional info, it's easier and at the end of the event i'll repost the full version.

Well, i'm off to get some sleep so these are my final stats. Didn't get the girl, but i'm on 40% progress so here's to hoping for a Revival in a couple months.

Ehm... 20 shard drops in 158 attacks, so about 10-15% drop rate it seems. And of course, shards can drop multiples (average 2 for me) so that seems to match shal's numbers.

Edited by Makinen
Did three more :P
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Early returns in my attempt to get Edna from Finalmecia: 250 battles, 8 shard drops (28 shards total). Could still just be an extended bad luck streak, but it's looking rather likely that her drop rate is far below the ~10% that have been observed for event girls.

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Partial results with Karole until now:

467 battles, 27 shard drops (16 rin and 11 toshiko), 49 shards total (29 rin, 20 toshiko). This include the super long dry streak I told before. Curiously enough excluding that extremely anomalous data point, the drop rate would be around 7-8% ... that was what I guessed some weeks ago B|.

 

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On 2/24/2019 at 7:23 PM, jelom said:

Partial results with Karole until now:

467 battles, 27 shard drops (16 rin and 11 toshiko), 49 shards total (29 rin, 20 toshiko). This include the super long dry streak I told before. Curiously enough excluding that extremely anomalous data point, the drop rate would be around 7-8% ... that was what I guessed some weeks ago B|.

I've begun to wonder if the three villain girls are dropping shards independently, rather than randomly from a "centralized" drop chance. My drop rate with one girl remaining on Finalmecia seems to be around 3.5%, yours with two girls on Karole around 7%...


Edit: Talked to another player on Discord who needs one girl from Karole - he doesn't keep exact battle stats, but we've estimated that he's been getting drops around 4% to 4.5% of the time.

Edited by _shal_
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Loving Lupa revival.

Shard drops showed amazing intelligence, I don't think it's a completely random system.
Loving Bunny revival had shard drops from 1 to 11, the longest streak without shards was 10 fights but usually I got something after every few fights.
Now let's take Lupa - 106 fights, 100 shards.
Bunny had 17 shard drops but Lupa only 11 drops - 10, 12, 9, 11, 7, 9, 12, 10, 9, 9, 2.
As you see, very big drops only (is that something to do with the Dark Lord, that he gets bigger drops?). To compensate, there were many 10+ fight streaks without shards, the longest was 22 fights with no shards. Also an amazing coincidence that the final drop with 98 shards was suddenly 2.


Based on that I would say that the system keeps track of shard drops - maybe it is a random system how many you get but if you get big drops, the system knows it and gives you more "empty" fights in-between. If you get smaller drops, you are given more fights with shards.

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I'm starting to think i liked the old system better. Not knowing how little progress being made to get a girl to drop on a day to day basis was much better than experieincing day after day of seeing no shards drop. At the rate I am experiencing, I won't get another boss girl to drop until 2020.  Maybe longer. I have not gained a girl since this system has been introduced.

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17 hours ago, Huangover said:

I'm starting to think i liked the old system better. Not knowing how little progress being made to get a girl to drop on a day to day basis was much better than experieincing day after day of seeing no shards drop. At the rate I am experiencing, I won't get another boss girl to drop until 2020.  Maybe longer. I have not gained a girl since this system has been introduced.

Are you talking about common girls or event girls? If common, then are you saying you never went multiple weeks without one dropping before? I didn't get a drop from Finalmecia or Roko for over 2,000 battles. I was at 2,173 to be exact before the new system. I legitimately just never assumed they would drop in the old system and never went back to old bosses because it didn't seem worthwhile to get less money for girls that never dropped. With the shard system, at least I know where I stand. Still, I get that dry spells suck, and maybe the shard system makes them even worse since you know you need many more "hits."

If you are talking about event girls, then really? You have not gotten one yet? I know everyone's luck is different, but everyone in my club got the event girls in this event (or at least everyone who talks which is most). Seems like the uncommons are not too bad to get, rare take around 150ish battles and legendaries 500ish? Data is still new, but it seems crazy you didn't get a single event girl in the new system if you've been battling consistently. That sucks, hope your luck improves.

On the thread topic:

Last event:

Loving Bunny - 106 battles, 104 shards total.

Loving Lupa - 127 battles, 100 shards exactly.

I didn't keep detailing information, so maybe this is not too useful.

Edited by YummyTiger
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