Do you hate the Attraction system? Give suggestions to fix it.

[Falco82]

6 hours ago, FishanX-6.0 said:

What I want to ask about this new system is what about all those old girls we fought before this system online? They basically start from 0 again. Yep spending quite a lot of kobans on my class legendary girl and not getting it and now its just gonna start on 0 again, nice

Those 100x shards rate only happen on regular girls once in a blue moon. Legendary girls seems to be capped at 3 shards max and a whole lot of 1x shards even if you got lucky, haha.

The previous system didn't take note of the advances. If you know how the random works you should understand it: every time you made an attack it was like throwing a dice that can roll out the 6 on the first try or on the 7949th without any logic because each roll has the same percentage of success (in a dice 1/6, here very very very much less).

The 100x shards rate works theoretically on all the girls including the legendary ones. I say theoretically because they have set it so low that no one or almost manages to get it but even this reasoning has the same value both on the legendary and on the common ones. This of the 100x it's a possibility that has nothing to do with the normal individual drop that varies depending on the rarity of the girls.

I hope this explanation is clear enough for you.

[FishanX-6.0]

12 minutes ago, Falco82 said:

The previous system didn't take note of the advances. If you know how the random works you should understand it: every time you made an attack it was like throwing a dice that can roll out the 6 on the first try or on the 7949th without any logic because each roll has the same percentage of success (in a dice 1/6, here very very very much less).

The 100x shards rate works theoretically on all the girls including the legendary ones. I say theoretically because they have set it so low that no one or almost manages to get it but even this reasoning has the same value both on the legendary and on the common ones. This of the 100x it's a possibility that has nothing to do with the normal individual drop that varies depending on the rarity of the girls.

I hope this explanation is clear enough for you.

Dude the system. its based on some Gambling model. Only fools believe there was no progress made. Those first try luck anyone get are also calculated on some collected data which happens once in blue moon too. Yep Gambling model again.

If the devs denied this then they are indeed the fool one for implementing such system since there is indeed real money involved. Alas, most of us if not everyone still getting most of them on high number of rolls normally. Thus proves that its based on some Gambling model.

Also if you believe "theoretically" there is a drop rate then that is what the meaning of there is some progress happens underneath. Although not sure if anyone ever gonna get those 100x hit on Legendary Girls. Once again proves my point that the system it self are based on some Gambling model.

 

Edited March 6, 2019 by FishanX-6.0

[Falco82]

26 minutes ago, FishanX-6.0 said:

Dude the system. its based on some Gambling model. Only fools believe there was no progress made. Those first try luck anyone get are also calculated on some collected data which happens once in blue moon too. Yep Gambling model again.

If the devs denied this then they are indeed the fool one for implementing such system since there is indeed real money involved. Alas, most of us if not everyone still getting most of them on high number of rolls normally. Thus proves that its based on some Gambling model.

Also if you believe "theoretically" there is a drop rate then that is what the meaning of there is some progress happens underneath. Although not sure if anyone ever gonna get those 100x hit on Legendary Girls. Once again proves my point that the system it self are based on some Gambling model.

 

And in fact I told you about a dice. Gambling is not based on progress. If you bet a number on the roulette table, do you think that counted something that you played there 1 or 200 times? With the previous method in which the drop rate was higher I get one at the second shot (understood? Second!) but sometimes I didn't take anything.

In the actual system there is the progress and you can see it very well, but there wasn't any reason to have it before and infact there wasn't.

And trust me I'm not talking like a fool, I'm a programmer and I know how the statistics work, and it's the statistics that are based on gambling, not progress.

P.S.: talking about the 100x hit I'm instead sure that someone has got it and I suggest you to read the patch notes before giving some fool to others about things that are explained there very well.

[FishanX-6.0]

12 minutes ago, Falco82 said:

And in fact I told you about a dice. Gambling is not based on progress. If you bet a number on the roulette table, do you think that counted something that you played there 1 or 200 times? With the previous method in which the drop rate was higher I get one at the second shot (understood? Second!) but sometimes I didn't take anything.

In the actual system there is the progress and you can see it very well, but there wasn't any reason to have it before and infact there wasn't.

And trust me I'm not talking like a fool, I'm a programmer and I know how the statistics work, and it's the statistics that are based on gambling, not progress.

P.S.: talking about the 100x hit I'm instead sure that someone has got it and I suggest you to read the patch notes before giving some fool to others about things that are explained there very well.

Yeah and Casino world wide will all be bankrupt if they follow your guide, haha.

Seriously, if you are a programmer and know even the word statistics means you won't give such arguments mate.

Yeah I read those patches notes since I've been playing the game for quite sometimes. Just because I'm newbie in forum does not mean that I'm newbie in the game.

PS: I've rest my case here since its still free games so they can all do any imba mods whatsoever they like and clearly some peoples does not really reads OP notes about this thread while suggesting others to read first. Seriously read the opening thread before you making such demand.

Edited March 6, 2019 by FishanX-6.0

[Falco82]

Do a research on what is statistics and how it works because it's clear that you have no idea what you're writing. All the lotteries in the world rely on it and it works perfectly precisely because the percentages are extremely low, just like in this game.

"Progress" like the one currently in use gives the security of winning sooner or later, the statistics do not.

This is why casinos all over the world don't go bankrupt with this method but they would go with your.

For me you can be a veteran both in the game and in the forum but it's clear that you have not understood a word, not only in the patch note but of what I have written so far too.

When you are ready to receive the answers to your questions instead of criticizing who provides them without understanding them then go back to writing, but before the next answer "seriously" re-read everything because "seriously" you didn't make a great figure.

[FishanX-6.0]

10 minutes ago, Falco82 said:

Do a research on what is statistics and how it works because it's clear that you have no idea what you're writing. All the lotteries in the world rely on it and it works perfectly precisely because the percentages are extremely low, just like in this game.

"Progress" like the one currently in use gives the security of winning sooner or later, the statistics do not.

This is why casinos all over the world don't go bankrupt with this method but they would go with your.

For me you can be a veteran both in the game and in the forum but it's clear that you have not understood a word, not only in the patch note but of what I have written so far too.

When you are ready to receive the answers to your questions instead of criticizing who provides them without understanding them then go back to writing, but before the next answer "seriously" re-read everything because "seriously" you didn't make a great figure.

Yeah says the one who does not appreciates a correction from other and does not know what statistics even mean. Haha. Seriously your answer does not help anyone unless you are the devs. of the game but you are not, are you?

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/statistics

Dude you can't really assume real dice randomness with pseudo-random generated from a computer. There will always be progress even in the form of the random-seed.

So why did you think casinos ban those good mathematicians if their system are based on luck alone? All those online gambling modules has certain ways of storing the progress.

 "Progress" like the one currently in use gives the security of winning sooner or later, the statistics do not. << This seriously the most idiotic comment you wrote so far. What do you mean by statistics do not give security of winning? So you do think that all those games out there does not record your progress and allows you to win the game? Come on dude, are you high on something?

Come on lets be real here. The only reason you mad is because you clearly claim you are something but you can't prove your points here. Don't drag me into your own mess. I don't really care albeit this complain of mine here. I'll still find a way to enjoy the game in my own way if I feels like to continue with their rules. If not then I just stop playing, its easy.

Once again read the OP of this thread before you continue with your replies since it feels more idiotic the more you add them. I won't reply anymore if you keep it up.

[Falco82]

6 minutes ago, FishanX-6.0 said:

Yeah says the one who does not appreciates a correction from other and does not know what statistics even mean. Haha. Seriously your answer does not help anyone unless you are the devs. of the game but you are not, are you?

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/statistics

Dude you can't really assume real dice randomness with pseudo-random generated from a computer. There will always be progress even in the form of the random-seed.

So why did you think casinos ban those good mathematicians if their system are based on luck alone? All those online gambling modules has certain ways of storing the progress.

 "Progress" like the one currently in use gives the security of winning sooner or later, the statistics do not. << This seriously the most idiotic comment you wrote so far. What do you mean by statistics do not give security of winning? So you do think that all those games out there does not record your progress and allows you to win the game? Come on dude, are you high on something?

Come on lets be real here. The only reason you mad is because you clearly claim you are something but you can't prove your points here. Don't drag me into your own mess. I don't really care albeit this complain of mine here. I'll still find a way to enjoy the game in my own way if I feels like to continue with their rules. If not then I just stop playing, its easy.

Once again read the OP of this thread before you continue with your replies since it feels more idiotic the more you add them. I won't reply anymore if you keep it up.

No but seriously, you're so stupid to answer with the dictionary to prove that you know the statistics?! XD I don't speak of the definition but of its application!!!
Here is an example of how the statistics in the lottery work:

http://garsia.math.yorku.ca/~zabrocki/math5020f03/lot649/lot649v3.pdf

" "Progress" like the one currently in use gives the security of winning sooner or later, the statistics do not" it's very easy to explain (even if I'm not sure that you'll understand).

Think you have a hat with 20 balls of which one red and each time you draw a ball and if it's not the red one you put it back inside. You have always 1 possibility on 20 to get the red one but you may never catch the red ball and always one of the others. This was the method that was there before in the game (and the same method of all casinos and lottery not rigged on the planet. This is why it is not enough to play the lottery so many times to become millionaires, but in your fantasy world where they keep track of how many times you've played, yes, lucky you).

Now think that from that hat every time you draw a ball not red throw it away, even if you're the most unlucky person on earth sooner or later in the hat you'll find only one ball, the red one, and then you will win. This is what is called "progress", the method currently in use.

You continue to talk about the initial post but you didn't understand that I'm responding to your post, not the initial one (to which I have already replied).
You can very well criticize this new method and I did it, but what you wrote doesn't correspond to the truth and I simply pointed it out. Then you are free to believe in fairies, I don't care, but I repeat, if you can't understand the answer don't ask the question.

[Guest Grifs]

So, this thread clearly shows that people are not satisfied with the situation and argue even among themselves. So this is long way off the so advertized clarity and transparancy of the system how guys are gained.

So my suggestions are, that there should be clear mathematics how guys ar gained. Like people could even have to gain 1000 hearts, but there should be at least 1 heart with each battle, otherwise there is no visible progress and clear price for the guy.

Then accodring to my findibgs there is no difference how many you get for the legendary guy or rare guy. Jut it seems with this new event you are getting more time, byt not more luck. If there is need to difereciate types it should really be visible and again, clear, like you need 100 hearts for rarr guy but 1000 for legendary one.

And then as well long time players are the ones who are comolaining the most and for a reason because they have played for a long time and they should be treated with dignity so there should be some gain if player has played the game for couple of years and no matter whether he has get there with hard work or paying. So there might be that up to 100 level there is at least 1 heart, but from 300-400 level there should be very visible gain like 4 or even 8 hearts gained otherwise it feels like being on level 999+ on some rpg game, but still failing on the first boss.

But the core of all that is - if you want to show the progress, then show it, not just change one lucky system with another.

[Lhans]

10 minutes ago, Guest Grifs said:

But the core of all that is - if you want to show the progress, then show it, not just change one lucky system with another.

In the old system the unlucky people wanted a mercy system in place so that they wouldn't be spending so many kobans for no girl. Well instead of doing that, Kinkoid went and changed the whole system for everyone instead after apparently doing some brainstorming about pros/cons of certain changes. So in a way, it's the fault of the compulsive gamblers in here.

[GeorgeMTO]

54 minutes ago, Guest Grifs said:

otherwise there is no visible progress and clear price for the guy.

A meter counting up to 100 is progress. It's just not consistent.

Kinkoid have also said they don't want a clear price for a girl, and would prefer it remain random.

54 minutes ago, Guest Grifs said:

If there is need to difereciate types it should really be visible and again, clear, like you need 100 hearts for rarr guy but 1000 for legendary one.

There is a visible and clear difference between difficulty to obtain in different types of event. If you had read the patch notes, you'd know that different event types have different drop ranges.

[Guest Grifs]

8 hours ago, Lhans said:

So in a way, it's the fault of the compulsive gamblers in here.

Sorry, but there is no mercy here, if you still try and don't get anything. Like after long night there are around 15 battle points and 4 day in a row i battle there and don't get a piece? Sure i get during the day, but i'm more than sure nobody like spending whole their energy there and not getting anything at all or very tiny one. So do developers really think that will make people pay for kobans and refil, if they are still not getting anything? Absolutely not. Just like with revival event pachinko which was advertized to be 300 koban price, but actually is 1800 and not even giving any guy there. Just lousy avatar which peopke could buy with those 300 kobans just like that and whichever they would like. So from players perspective i see no mercy, only greed.

[Guest Grifs]

8 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said:

A meter counting up to 100 is progress. It's just not consistent.

Kinkoid have also said they don't want a clear price for a girl, and would prefer it remain random.

There is a visible and clear difference between difficulty to obtain in different types of event. If you had read the patch notes, you'd know that different event types have different drop ranges.

Ok, my bad, just checked again the patchnotes and there really are droprare for different type of guys/girls. However. First there i noticed those boss descriptions and it turns out it was meant only for story guys not event guys. Honestly i don't give a damn what is the droprate therem because those guys are obtainable at any time and actually for long term players they already have all of them. So now i get why i didn't get any 16 piece gain while battling Grunt. However this doesn't gelp with rediculously low drop rate in other cases where very high level players should be more lucky than some newbies.

And sorry, but just telling that you need to gather 100 hearts while you need to spend unknown amount of battles which in reality is quite a number just to get 1 is like watching ice freezing in a fridge. Sure, you see that you gain a shard once in a while, but in long term this is just like watching your failure not progress.

Progress is what you see gaining exp points what you get every time when do the battle. Sure it might be just 1 point or 32 or more, but you clearly see that you won the battle and got rewarded for that. That's a progress, not some luck.

[ScrubNoob]

Quite the argument on progress earlier I see. To be fair you both had a point, though when it comes to an event already finished falco's definition of progress is absolutely the correct one. Using a pseudo-random number generator can in fact have something akin to progress through repeated attempts much like a slot machine. It seems unlikely though that this type of progress towards reaching a win state would be carried over for you in anyway once you leave the machine. Upon returning it likely would be in a different state than you left it. Like a slot machine again somebody else might have gotten the eventual jackpot or you may have simply gotten that random number that would have won on a pvp fight or even a refresh in the market.

An additional thing to consider is that depending on the seed a very low odd chance may actually be an impossible state to reach until getting a new seed. A good algorithm still is extremely unlikely to hit every number possible in a sufficiently large pool of possible results which becomes needed to have things like 0.1% chances. Which numbers are in the set that it will produce are entirely controlled by the seed itself. It's not impossible to make an algorithm that will produce every number in the set of course, but that itself will just make a cycle the size of the set every time, which itself makes things less random.

Edited March 6, 2019 by ScrubNoob
typo readability

[Lhans]

3 hours ago, Guest Grifs said:

Sorry, but there is no mercy here, if you still try and don't get anything. 

Well like I said, the compulsive gamblers wanted a mercy system, but everyone got this instead. So not only did they not get quite what they wanted, they screwed everyone who currently hates this new system. It's a boon to unlucky people who tend to miss girls on the old system however. So in a way, whether you hate/like the new system depends on what was your experience in the old system. For me I was fairly lucky in the old system in terms of drops, but with the new system not so much but at least I get to grind all the girls to max with refills so its a positive that's countered by being grindy. So I guess I'm a positive leaning neutral person to the shard system. 

[xyzpornaccount]

I do not mind a grind, in general; but the excitement is gone for me. I much prefer the old system: yeah, it sucked when you missed a girl, but there was always some hope and occasionally, excitement when you hit. Now I see the exact progress (which appears incredibly slow to me, even compared to the previous drop rates), but that makes it way more of a pure grind than the occasional jackpot. When I do hit, I just feel "meh" and maybe relief that the particular grind is over. It is giving me some time to max out my existing harem, but I'm not that far off; and when I do, I do not feel a ton of incentive to keep grinding. Hopefully in the time it takes to get them maxed, the system gets reverted (even if it's with slightly lower rates, I'm happier than now) or the mechanics get worked out. Good luck all.

Edited March 7, 2019 by xyzpornaccount

[YummyTiger]

19 hours ago, Guest Grifs said:

So, this thread clearly shows that people are not satisfied with the situation and argue even among themselves. So this is long way off the so advertized clarity and transparancy of the system how guys are gained.

And all the threads complaining about drop rates before this change clearly shows that people were not satisfied with the prior situation. Yet, neither actually shows what the entire userbase thinks, just the vocal minority on the forums who are skewed towards being unsatisfied anyways. If you're satisfied, you're not as likely to create an account and start a thread about the system. This system definitely provides more clarity on where you are towards getting the girl--which is part of the issue apparently.

I can see the argument about this system being less exciting, but I'm surprised there are many people who cannot get the girls in an event like the current one. I've already gotten the rare girl from Donatien and am 20 shards into the uncommon (with no refills this event). I've gotten every girl since the attraction system went into place with I think 3 refills total. If people are using their total allocated free battles and are unable to get at least one uncommon/rare girl during the event, then I agree shard drop rates should be evaluated. I just have not seen that personally.

[Stang91]

Attraction is ok for boss harem girls, who aren't going anywhere so you have all the time you need to get them....but it SUX for event girls cause it takes so much effort just to get ONE girl (if you're lucky enough to even do that!). Unless they're going to make attraction A LOT easier to get, I think event girls should go back to being random drop only at this rate!

[Guest Grifs]

3 hours ago, Stang91 said:

Attraction is ok for boss harem girls, who aren't going anywhere so you have all the time you need to get them....but it SUX for event girls cause it takes so much effort just to get ONE girl (if you're lucky enough to even do that!). Unless they're going to make attraction A LOT easier to get, I think event girls should go back to being random drop only at this rate!

Exactly my point. For me it's day 7 of the event and i finally got the guy from Grunt. So what are my chances to get the Epic one from Donatien when i need to gather again those shards? Quite low i would say. So if people are not able to get during the event those free ones, what is the point paying for them and them again in Pachinko games pay again and get only a chance again to get something, but no warranties? People compare the new system with a slot machine, but honestly if i wanted to pull the lever of it, then i would be gone to a Casino as in my experience there is much higher drop rate than here. Or better pull my own lever which gives satisfaction with warranty. But this game i have always seen as place where you may be smart to be better or time to time pay a fee to do things faster, but not like playing a slot maschine at all.

[GeorgeMTO]

1 hour ago, Guest Grifs said:

Exactly my point. For me it's day 7 of the event and i finally got the guy from Grunt. So what are my chances to get the Epic one from Donatien when i need to gather again those shards? Quite low i would say. So if people are not able to get during the event those free ones, what is the point paying for them and them again in Pachinko games pay again and get only a chance again to get something, but no warranties? People compare the new system with a slot machine, but honestly if i wanted to pull the lever of it, then i would be gone to a Casino as in my experience there is much higher drop rate than here. Or better pull my own lever which gives satisfaction with warranty. But this game i have always seen as place where you may be smart to be better or time to time pay a fee to do things faster, but not like playing a slot maschine at all.

It took you just over 6 days to get one drop, and there is just under 6 days left to get the 2nd. Sounds within possible to get her, just needs you to be slightly luckier than you had been so far.

If people wish to have a guarantee, they can use the Epic Pachinko instead of the Event Pachinko.

[Falco82]

6 hours ago, Guest Grifs said:

Exactly my point. For me it's day 7 of the event and i finally got the guy from Grunt. So what are my chances to get the Epic one from Donatien when i need to gather again those shards? Quite low i would say. So if people are not able to get during the event those free ones, what is the point paying for them and them again in Pachinko games pay again and get only a chance again to get something, but no warranties? People compare the new system with a slot machine, but honestly if i wanted to pull the lever of it, then i would be gone to a Casino as in my experience there is much higher drop rate than here. Or better pull my own lever which gives satisfaction with warranty. But this game i have always seen as place where you may be smart to be better or time to time pay a fee to do things faster, but not like playing a slot maschine at all.

You are lucky, I'm only at 77% for the first in HH, better in GH 96% but both with the same problem: the shards don't arrive!

I've said a lot of time but programmers seems to be satisfied to have lowered the drop rates and don't answer.

It isn't normal that in 20 consecutive attacks does not come out even one shard (and I think it is not even wanted in fact using the 10x that "should" be equal to 1x this never happens).

I said it and I repeat, if you do not raise the shard drop rate or put the possibility of the single drop at the same percentage that was before (keeping the attraction as a secondary method and not as primary as it is now) no event will be feasible without paying.

And since this is precisely your goal, I would also like to point out that if all the events will need a lot of money to be won, very few people will be willing to do so. An account is if I miss a little to win a girl, then the refill I do willingly, but if it lacks a lot, as it will be in my case at the end of this event despite 12 days, then I will simply give up. No girl for me and no money for you.
This is the result obtained by a simply ridiculous drop rate.

[Lhans]

21 minutes ago, Falco82 said:

It isn't normal that in 20 consecutive attacks does not come out even one shard

It's the new normal. I've had it happen many times already.

[jaybee]

I have 20-fight streaks with no shards all the time. That is indeed the new normal.

The longest were 40 and 50 fights (divided over two days) but basically for a simple event girl you can fight the whole day and not get a single shard. That's definitely too much in my opinion.

[Huangover]

Getting back on point, I hate the new shard system. I don't care what mathematical or casino model it is based on, from my experience it is worse than the old model. I think I will be 95 years old before any girl from Karole drops at the rate I am experiencing.

[pitythefool]

On 3/6/2019 at 9:34 PM, Guest Grifs said:

Exactly my point. For me it's day 7 of the event and i finally got the guy from Grunt. So what are my chances to get the Epic one from Donatien when i need to gather again those shards? Quite low i would say. So if people are not able to get during the event those free ones, what is the point paying for them and them again in Pachinko games pay again and get only a chance again to get something, but no warranties? People compare the new system with a slot machine, but honestly if i wanted to pull the lever of it, then i would be gone to a Casino as in my experience there is much higher drop rate than here. Or better pull my own lever which gives satisfaction with warranty. But this game i have always seen as place where you may be smart to be better or time to time pay a fee to do things faster, but not like playing a slot maschine at all.

Okay first off, when you posted this, we were literally like 2 hours into the 7th day of the event meaning you have nearly 6 days left aka half the event. You're still on pace to get both girls without spending any kobans at all. If you do have to spend some, we're talking like 2 refills or less more than likely. (Not to mention this event gives ~2772 kobans (HH) overall from missions + daily mission completion)

It is generally slightly more difficult to get girls under the new system. Some things are pretty much guaranteed spenders now, like legendary days and epic days, though they were already spenders before, so nothing new there.. Basically all the new system has done is remove the extremes for good and bad luck. The odds of you ending up with like a 40-50 refill legendary girl are pretty much non existent now. Now you're stuck with a pretty solid 10-20 refill quota depending on your luck (puts you at 4-600 attacks over the course of the 4 day event).The system really helps so you don't end up with guessing situations at the end of an event where you keep using kobans hoping to get that last girl and potentially not succeeding. You now have shard progress as something tangible and can gauge (with math/guesstimates) whether you want to use more to try and get the girl at the end. 

The general consensus is that shards drop at roughly a 10% rate. You can use that 10% to calculate guesstimated rates for all types of events and to get an idea of how many refills are needed in order to finish off a girl. *My personal results/experiences thus far for amount of attacks to get girl listed on the side.

Legendary Event (1-3 = 2 average. 100/2 = 50) = ~500 attacks needed for girl              (*417, *460 Fabienne, live and test server results)

Epic Event (1-5 = 3 average, 100/3 = 33.33)  = ~333 attacks per girl                                 (*No data yet)

Classic Event (1-6 = 3.5 average, 100/3.5 = 28.57) = ~286 attacks per girl                      (*Carine - 61 attacks for 39 shards, then 100 crit) (*305 - Alex)

Revival Event  (1-12 = 6.5 average, 100/6.5 = 15.38) = ~154 attacks per girl                   (*132 Red battler, 216** Val Abrael (see notes below), *296 total (148 avg) for Lupa and Bunny)

 

**Edwarda had Eugenie + Val Abrael and I managed to get Eugenie first. Probably would have gotten Abrael faster if she was solo. If I remove Eugenies shard events, it was 192 attacks, but its hard to tell if some of those may have translated into Abrael shards sooner.

Additionally I ran a separate comprehensive test on Edwarda on the test server as well, 3 boss girls + 1 event girl. I can post in depth results later, Over the course of 775 attacks the shard rate was 12.64% (98/775). If you remove Abrael and her shard events, the numbers  drop to a pretty consistent 10.4% (79/756). 300/79 = 3.8 shards per event. Edwarda is 1-7 so 4 average. All in all it more or less lines up with the guesstimates. 100/4 = 25 x10 = ~250 per girl, 3 girls = ~750. Total amount needed 756.

 

As far as suggestions to fix the attraction system go, I dunno. Everyone's whining about 'paying for kobans', or 'paying with kobans', the truth of the matter is this system doesn't really affect anyone much assuming you actually play the game daily and get the free (HH values) 150 mission completion kobans, event kobans, contest kobans, league kobans, weekly kobans... The kobans you would have used before to 'gamble' on event girls by buying refills are now more strategically spread around. Revival events may take 2-3 refills to get the girls now (5 day event  = ~250 attacks, vs the guesstimated ~308 of two girls), Classic events shouldn't take any refills with average RNG (572 estimated vs 576 : 12 days 48 a piece), Epic events (epic days) always took a ton and you typically never got all 6 girls, now they still will take a ton, but you know each girl will take roughly 333 attacks, so you just need to save up as much as you can and use as many kobans as you're comfortable using. Finally legendary days are pretty much now 10-20 refills guaranteed. Legendary days and Epic days don't come around very often so I don't see it being that difficult to save up kobans. Over the course of 2 months you could save up 9000 (hh) kobans just from doing all the daily missions. Sprinkle in events like this one and you're adding almost 3000 each time to your coffers.  Add in placing top 4 in contests and all the other stuff and all of a sudden you're earning quite a few kobans.

Honestly the new system seems fine to me, but I can understand how having an 0/20, 0/30, 0/50 run can be disconcerting, however these things generally find a way to average themselves out. In fact I'm in the midst of an 54 attack streak without a shard, and while I'd love to just x10 to jar up my luck/rng, I'm staying the single attack course in order to get good data. Even with this terrible streak, I'm still sitting above 10% shard rate and at 78 total shards on 256 attacks. I'm sure things will turn around soon, but I might miss my guesstimated ~286 completion average due to bad luck.

Edited March 8, 2019 by pitythefool
Added Alex Results (picture/edit)

[Guest Grifs]

Thanks, pitythefool.

Very genuine calculations and it was very intersting reading this.

I really hope there will be enough time to get the second guy in the event. Otherwise this will be a disappointment comparing to past two years playing the game. But i guess the biggest disappointment is that advertising the new system as very visible prigress you by yourself see that there is more failure on the road than success, so even if we keep the same math, and let's say the rate is 10%, then for players it would be better to have 10x more as a target but at least 1 to have each time they have a fight. So that would be a decent progress picture.