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Mythic Pachinko


DvDivXXX
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Il y a 6 heures, DvDivXXX a dit :

the other is only about 90% sure (would need an Excel wizard like, say @Liliat ❤️ to do the actual maths to confirm), but it's for all us.

Hmmm.

10 girls dropped, 1021 Orbs played, 0.98% drop rate. Although the maths are a bit confused by @Rylarth's "Buttload of orbs for 1 girl", so I'm not really sure what to make of it :D I ignored that for now, but it probably makes the result slightly worse :)

If I also exclude jpanda's report because he's not sure how many orbs he spent for 0 girl, that doesn't really change the result, at 1.04%. If I take an optimistic value from his report (60 Orbs), rather than completely ignoring it, we get the aforementioned 0.98%

I started counting from December 31st (Rotation #0447), since it was the first reported "good run" in a long time, and several more followed after that. So 1% is really the optimistic result. That's consistent with the previous (optimistic) result for the period between December 19th and December 29th.

We're definitely nowhere near the 2% drop rate some would expect.

Also, if I exclude players who reported a single run (either extremely good - 1 orb for 1 girl - or extremely bad - 212 orbs for 0 girl), the results are the same, or slightly worse.

The funny thing though, is that none of these reports were average. They were all either really good (1 - 30 for 1 girl) or really bad (145+ for 0 or 1 girl). 5 lucky or very lucky reports, canceled out by 4 unlucky or very unlucky ones.

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this is a more detailed report of my orb use in 2021, if anybody cares.

I didn't keep track of when avatars were in the pool and when not

I never skipped a chance to go for a girl when someone was in my pachinko - I either pulled until the drop or until my orbs ran out (3 times earlier in the year)

I count it as: January-November, 1,437 orbs spent on 20 drops (1.4% drop chance)
December: 518 orbs spent on 2 drops (0.38% chance)

January-December: 1,955 orbs spent on 22 drops (1.1% drop chance)
I disregarded two free pulls and one sure-orbed drop

mythic orbs 2021
42 - GOT
38 - GOT
1 - GOT
111 - nothing
51 - GOT
5 - GOT
free pull - GOT
48 - GOT
135 - nothing
55 - nothing
50 - GOT
66 - GOT
53 - GOT
10 10% orbs 
98 - GOT
55 - GOT
80 - GOT
36 - GOT
13 - GOT
61 - GOT
36 - GOT
157 - GOT
free pull - GOT
47 - GOT
147 - GOT
52 - GOT
196 - GOT
322 - GOT
 

Edited by jaybee
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I hit my target of 1200MPs and it's a Pachinko day on the DC, so I've spent some:

102 orbs - 1 free

Ginseng - 14 - 13.73%
Chlorella - 18 - 17.65%
Jujubes - 3 - 2.94%
Cordycep - 8 - 7.84%
GXP - 58 - 56.69%
Girl - 1 - 0.98%

The girl dropped on the 19th pull.

I'll update these figures as I add more.

Of the above I consider the Chlorella and Jujubes absolutely useless. These are just fodder for the 'sell items' days.

Ginseng I use 1/day. I'd estimate that it'll take ~10-11 days to replenish what I just spent, so I got a little more than I need.

Cordys are pure Kobans for me. I use 2/day and that's 4 days where I don't need to shop buy these. I wish I'd got a LOT more of these.

GXP - :)

Girl - drop % is spot on the nose of what @Liliat suggested above. Not as good as it historically was, but better than it appears to have been recently.

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Soo..to my surprise I got another girl in my MyP on my main today: Bastet .. after only 279 orbs she dropped :P (now I know what you guys where talking about :D .. I almost forgot how bad MyP can be sometimes ) also: 18 cordy dropped out of those 279 orbs (that even worse than needing almost 300 orbs for a girl imho)

On nutaku I´m currently on a 138 orbs run without a girl drop :/

but I´m still happy I got something in my MyP ..13 more girls and I´ll run out of orbs :D

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On 1/8/2022 at 8:51 AM, JustVisitingReborn said:

I hit my target of 1200MPs and it's a Pachinko day on the DC, so I've spent some:

102 orbs - 1 free

Ginseng - 14 - 13.73%
Chlorella - 18 - 17.65%
Jujubes - 3 - 2.94%
Cordycep - 8 - 7.84%
GXP - 58 - 56.69%
Girl - 1 - 0.98%

The girl dropped on the 19th pull.

I'll update these figures as I add more.

Of the above I consider the Chlorella and Jujubes absolutely useless. These are just fodder for the 'sell items' days.

Ginseng I use 1/day. I'd estimate that it'll take ~10-11 days to replenish what I just spent, so I got a little more than I need.

Cordys are pure Kobans for me. I use 2/day and that's 4 days where I don't need to shop buy these. I wish I'd got a LOT more of these.

GXP - :)

Girl - drop % is spot on the nose of what @Liliat suggested above. Not as good as it historically was, but better than it appears to have been recently.

With Valentina available today, this was exactly the circumstance that I saved up for, I went for her.

Today I spent 509 orbs, one of which was a free spin.

For today the results were as follows:

Ginseng - 88 - 17.29%
Chlorella - 125 - 24.56%
Jujubes - 15 - 2.95%
Cordycep - 36 - 7.07%
GXP - 242 - 47.54%
Girl - 3 - 0.59%

Overall results are now:

Ginseng - 102 - 16.93%
Chlorella - 143 - 23.40%
Jujubes - 18 - 2.95%
Cordycep - 44 - 7.20%
GXP - 300 - 49.10%
Girl - 4 - 0.65%

Valentina was the 3rd girl to drop today and the girls dropped on the 58th, 271st and 509th spins.

So effectively everything good/useful saw significantly decreased drop rates (Girls, Cordys, GXP) and the overall Girl drop rate over the 600 spins has been far closer to the feared 0.5% than the old 2%. Ginsing is kind of in the middle - I do use it, but I've got way more than I need now to last until I replenish my MP orbs. The Cordy's will save me around 660 Koban, so that's a big plus.

It'll take approximately 2 months to replenish my stock now, but on the plus side I have filled one of the 5* gaps in my harem.

Edited by JustVisitingReborn
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Kalissa available  for me too .. got her after 29 orbs :D (and 5 cordys along the way ^^)

nothing dropped for me on nutaku (I have 2 girls available there) .. currently on a 167 orbs run without a drop (no orbs left)

 

On 1/8/2022 at 1:37 PM, holymolly said:

Soo..to my surprise I got another girl in my MyP on my main today: Bastet .. after only 279 orbs she dropped :P (now I know what you guys where talking about :D .. I almost forgot how bad MyP can be sometimes ) also: 18 cordy dropped out of those 279 orbs (that even worse than needing almost 300 orbs for a girl imho)

On nutaku I´m currently on a 138 orbs run without a girl drop :/

but I´m still happy I got something in my MyP ..13 more girls and I´ll run out of orbs :D

 

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