Antimon Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 ora fa, Chthugha ha scritto: But then you also have to include the average time lost by players at the start of the event. I definitely won't wake up at 5 am to get all my fights. Neither will I wake up just before 5 am on the last day to do all my fights. If you are European/African, then it is fair to say you most likely lose about 8 hours in total during an event due to sleep. Reducing the added 20 at the start to a measly 4. Of course there are also players in these regions that just give up on sleep or are awake at those times because of work, but I think it's fair to say that they have a disadvantage compared to for example players in the Americas. And this is also true. I was going to say that 8 hours seemed to me a little bit too much, that you can loose free points just the first day and like just 2-4 hours considering 6-8 a.m. as wake time (+1 hour to say that maybe you don't jump in game right after opening your eyes), but then I realize that you loose free points in the last day, too, after you go to sleep... and here's back the +1 refill, I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 2, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Antimon said: just 2-4 hours considering 6-8 a.m. as wake time There are also people who live in the CET time zone but go to sleep and wake up much later than that. It's not rare for me to go to bed just a few hours before reset time, and only open the game on the next day looong after the reset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 (edited) Voted for Rosy. If we exclude her green tights she's the best girl. I wish she was blonde like her inspiration (Ann Takamaki) but oh well. Edited February 2, 2020 by linkdream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just a digression. It is true Kinkoid said in discord that it would be a 35%-40% increase in drop rates, and also suggested an increase in the ingame notes but didn't said anything about shard range increases, so if the shard range has increased almost the the percentage indicated, (8-6)/6=33.3% increase if you take maximum values so almost the said 35%. then my explanation is that the meaning was to increase only the 1-6 shard range to the new 1-8 shard range for classic events without changing the ~10% drop rate used for all events that could be a global variable and impact the rest of the events (remember: "the simplest solution is most likely the right one"). A question of using a different word perhaps by mistake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, jelom said: Just a digression. It is true Kinkoid said in discord that it would be a 35%-40% increase in drop rates, and also suggested an increase in the ingame notes but didn't said anything about shard range increases, so if the shard range has increased almost the the percentage indicated, (8-6)/6=33.3% increase if you take maximum values so almost the said 35%. then my explanation is that the meaning was to increase only the 1-6 shard range to the new 1-8 shard range for classic events without changing the ~10% drop rate used for all events that could be a global variable and impact the rest of the events (remember: "the simplest solution is most likely the right one"). A question of using a different word perhaps by mistake. But that's not the actual increase. You go from an average of 3.5 shards to 4.5 shards. So it's (4.5 - 3.5)/3.5 × 100% = 28.57%. But then again, we all know maths isn't Kinkoid's strong suit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmytro Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 (edited) @Antimon The shard drop rate thread suggested a 10-11% drop rate. For this event, Kinkoid suggested a 35-40% improvement, but the improvement in ranges only gives 28.57%. There might also be value in being able to plausibly claim that on average, the players can complete the event without spending Kobans. So 1/9 (or 0.5 shards per battle) is a reasonable round-number guess (though I should have been clearer about it). @GeorgeMTO I value your criticism, but please do not exaggerate it; I will reply in the other thread. Making guesses is often valuable — as long as one labels them as such. @Chthugha It would be nice if one could customize the time zone, and delay one's event by a few hours. That said, the expected number of free fights for you may be higher than 608 because of the leagues. Edited February 2, 2020 by Dmytro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 19 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: No one (familiar with odds and how to evaluate them) could draw any conclusion at all from such a minuscule sample size, you know. That's the reason I wrote "up to now". 19 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: That aside, I strongly suspect that they simply meant "range" instead of "rate" in the leak (and the news post is so vague it could mean anything, as long as something has been increased). Now that it's pretty safe to say that the maximum drop range has been increased from 6 to 8 (and the minimum apparently remains 1), it seems quite likely that this was the big change they were referring to, and that this is it. Technically, 1-8 is quite a bit better than 1-6. Is it better enough to compensate for the optimal goal moving up from 200 shards to 300 for the same duration, though?... My gut feeling tells me no. It seems to me that they raised the bar we'd typically want to reach by much more than they increased our means to reach it. I'd be very interested in looking at the maths on this question, if someone great at it is kind enough to post it, though. Thanks in advance. Math aside, as I try to use it as less as possible playing the game, you pointed an often underestimated fact: writing posts in the forum, in the past many people didn't mark the difference between drop rate and drop range, using the words "drop rate" to refer to both. Although they are closely related, especially when one refers to the total time needed to fully obtain a girl. It would be much better if people continues to use the correct expression like in some of the last posts above, using drop rate for the probability of an effective drop, and drop range for the possible quantity of shards in the drop. I agree on the fact that in the leak probably the word range would have been the correct one. And believe it or not, I didn't need math to know that even with the increased drop range, it will be quite hard to obtain all three girls on the bosses. Despite the fact that with the last full combativity bar I nearly tripled Arianne shards (passing from 13 to 37), I will consider myself lucky if I will reach two of three. Although the "average" sometimes is reached, it is already a few events that the drop rate in my game has been so unstable that is impossible to make any reliable prevision, and up to now this event is no exception. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Chthugha said: But that's not the actual increase. You go from an average of 3.5 shards to 4.5 shards. So it's (4.5 - 3.5)/3.5 × 100% = 28.57%. But then again, we all know maths isn't Kinkoid's strong suit. You read my mind . I was also to put that calculation alongside the maximum increase for comparison, but decided to delete that part before posting for clarity. And I though after that: surely someone will reply with that. Yes, the old veterans @Chthugha and @GeorgeMTO don't let pass an ocassion to search in your words for every defect, omission or mistake . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/1/2020 at 3:32 AM, DvDivXXX said: Sounds good, thanks. Noacc's message is a bit mysterious, but no matter how they implement it, any increase would be welcomed. In the long run, I wish they'd increase the minimum shard drop range, though. Not necessarily across the board, but at least for events with a high-ish maximum range. 1-3 is not that big of a deal (even when you high roll, you don't get that much anyway), but 1-5 and 1-6, let alone 1-12, that's a bit too heavy on the RNG. I didn't save them to screenshot, but I got one x9, two x8 and one x7 trying for that hot new version of Levitya in Adrian'smole. I've never had a x9 in a classic event before. She's now up to x76 in that account with no combativity refills (even partial). This sort of answers the question re. shard value drops, at least anecdotally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Two comments in a row (one quote and one new comment) and that's not good, but it seemed right to stick to DvDivXXX's thread rather than hiving off to a new issue within it. Re. the girls. Gee, this time I can't decide! I really like all of them, some more than others. I'm not an avid follower of Manga and Anime games, but from what I can see in their opening poses alone, these girls are amazing. There is a definite Manga style in the likes of the two entirely new girls (who are great by the way) through to Cupid Chan. In their cases, the eyes sure have it. I never thought the artist(s) would ever be able to fix a flawed creation that is Levitya, but they did. Great effort. As for the mission girl, Cupid Chan actually stirs my groin. Great outfit she's wearing - best mission girl (imo) since Crystal when all the Pachinko Magical Girls wore amazing outfits. And get that cable-knit sweater Norou is wearing! This reminds me a lot of Liya Silver's and Li Moon's identical powder blue knitwear they wore in iStripper, not cable but heavy rib texture all the same. There are flaws as I see them in how some of the new girls are posed, but what they are wearing is THE standout for me. In terms of posing, Norou looks like she's busting for a pee and working hard to hold it in. I suggest to her that she should just let it go because, in Hentai Heroes, every girl does it at some time. Her pose is nearly identical to that of Val Shao's, but in Shao's case she definitely was drunk and probably needing an urgent pee. It's unusual that Arianne is appearing as a Valentine, being so into sadism and torture, but there you are. Not outstanding compared with some of the others, but very respectable. I do agree that Anita is perhaps the weakest (at least in terms of the outfit she's wearing), but I'll hold my full judgement until I see all the poses and affection scenes of the girls to be rescued. Cori is Cori, always great, but it might've been choice to see her pretty friend, Alana, included in this event to bring an archarial twist to Valentine's Day and the Hornywood casting couch! Who to leave out though? Most obvious would've been Anita. Regardless of preferences, they are all welcome into my harem - if they'll have me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 2, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Zorba the Geek said: I didn't save them to screenshot, but I got one x9 Thanks. Could you please confirm that it was in a single drop (as in, you just clicked on the x1 blue button, not on the x10 button)? I know this seems obvious, but someone claimed the drop range was higher than everyone else thought during the recent Foreplay event, and it turned out when I had a close look at their screenshots that they had been counting the cumulative results of x10 fight series instead of single drops. So, just in case, I'd like to make sure here. ^^ If anyone else gets a x9 (or higher), a screenshot would be much appreciated. I've had no drop above 8 myself, nor have I heard of such drop from anyone else except for Zorba's post above. Thanks in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 33 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said: Thanks. Could you please confirm that it was in a single drop (as in, you just clicked on the x1 blue button, not on the x10 button)? I know this seems obvious, but someone claimed the drop range was higher than everyone else thought during the recent Foreplay event, and it turned out when I had a close look at their screenshots that they had been counting the cumulative results of x10 fight series instead of single drops. So, just in case, I'd like to make sure here. ^^ If anyone else gets a x9 (or higher), a screenshot would be much appreciated. I've had no drop above 8 myself, nor have I heard of such drop from anyone else except for Zorba's post above. Thanks in advance. Fair question. Yes, they were all single drops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 53 minuti fa, Zorba the Geek ha scritto: Fair question. Yes, they were all single drops. Are you really sure about this x9 single drop? Sorry if I doubt your words asking again, but you are apparently the only one who had this lucky strike, and mathematically speaking a 1-9 drop range means a 50% max increase and a 43% average increase, which are both more than what has been teased by kinkoid. By the way, if it is actually true, it means 200 battles on average to get one girl, a little less of half the player base should get all the three girls with free combativity, the others will need up to 4/5 full refills, like @Dmytro said in his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Antimon said: Are you really sure about this x9 single drop? Sorry if I doubt your words asking again, but you are apparently the only one who had this lucky strike, and mathematically speaking a 1-9 drop range means a 50% max increase and a 43% average increase, which are both more than what has been teased by kinkoid. By the way, if it is actually true, it means 200 battles on average to get one girl, a little less of half the player base should get all the three girls with free combativity, the others will need up to 4/5 full refills, like @Dmytro said in his post. Well, I haven't had any other x9 drops, but I shall be screen-shotting it if it happens again. Yes, I'm certain that's what dropped as I paid particular attention to this anomaly when it happened. The drop rate does seem good in general. In my Lili account I now have Arianne up to x92 with no refills of combativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Antimon said: Are you really sure about this x9 single drop? Sorry if I doubt your words asking again, but you are apparently the only one who had this lucky strike, and mathematically speaking a 1-9 drop range means a 50% max increase and a 43% average increase, which are both more than what has been teased by kinkoid. By the way, if it is actually true, it means 200 battles on average to get one girl, a little less of half the player base should get all the three girls with free combativity, the others will need up to 4/5 full refills, like @Dmytro said in his post. I would consider Dmytro more reliable than Zorba and as I said earlier, I do not consider Dmytro reliable. Without proof, ignore all of his ramblings for trying to calculate averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Lust Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I just have one question regarding the drop rates of shards per block of 20 combativity. Is this drop rate constant during the entire process of acquiring the harem girls from the bosses or does this drop rate decrease as you get closer and closer to the acquisition point of 100 shards? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmytro Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 (edited) @Dr. Lust The drop rate is believed to be constant (and not dependent of the number of shards you have). Edited February 3, 2020 by Dmytro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kojot Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Oh no, all of my favorite girls are Pachinko exclusive! *sad noises* And about the shards... Is it just me or it is actually harder to get these? 😂 In this pace I will be able to get maybe 1.5 girls at the end of the event. Hopefully, it is just my misleading luck 🙏 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Lust Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I just hope that the 9 days left is enough time to pickup the 31 shards left to get Arianne. I'll be happy to pickup the event girl and Arianne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Sharing my own data, so far... Highest shard drop - 8 Lowest shard drop - 3 Just now, Dr. Lust said: I just hope that the 9 days left is enough time to pickup the 31 shards left to get Arianne. I'll be happy to pickup the event girl and Arianne. Unless you're surreally unlucky, you should, for sure 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windia Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/1/2020 at 7:06 PM, Antimon said: My guess is that with the ooD you obtain more or less a penis ( like 8ooD ) Thanks, after reading all replies, I see the obvious now too... On 2/1/2020 at 8:10 PM, jelom said: is it clearer now? Yes, very clear! thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 18 hours ago, Kojot said: Oh no, all of my favorite girls are Pachinko exclusive! *sad noises* And about the shards... Is it just me or it is actually harder to get these? 😂 In this pace I will be able to get maybe 1.5 girls at the end of the event. Hopefully, it is just my misleading luck 🙏 12 days is a long time! With 8 shard drops, and a bit of luck, you can get pretty much one third of the girl with just 3 drops I've had a few, so I assume that you will too with time 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Karyia said: 12 days is a long time! With 8 shard drops, and a bit of luck, you can get pretty much one third of the girl with just 3 drops I've had a few, so I assume that you will too with time 👍 3x8 = 24 Did you perhaps mean close to one quarter with just three drops? Or close to a third with 4 drops (4x8=32) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said: 3x8 = 24 Did you perhaps mean close to one quarter with just three drops? Or close to a third with 4 drops (4x8=32) That was exactly what I was trying to say (the first case) but failed miserably 😅😤 Sorry about that and thanks for the correction 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Lust Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 (Looks skyward and crossing my fingers) 8 days left and 12 shards to Arianne. I hope I can pick her up, so to speak☺️ , in a few days so I can start chipping away at the shards on another girl. Best of luck to all in this event. Been fun so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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