[ 03-Jul-22 ] Mythic Days - Discussion

[Pelinor]

First, let me say thank you to all the players who have not gone after Magical Noemy, your lack of interest made it possible for me to claim a mythic girl for less less than 1000 combats and saved me the angst of spending kobans for refills with a less than optimum roi. Thank you, thank you, thank you! Magical Noemy is mine 😃 

[Julius Fox]

I changed my mind at least a dozen times on whether to go after Magical Noemy. My original plan was to take a break from Mythics for a while after getting all 4 over the last 2 months and save up resources to go after High Mage Arcana and Royal Housemaid revivals in August/September. However getting Radka cost less than I anticipated (due to the 15% off combativity sale along with some good old luck) leaving open the possibility of going after an MD girl if she struck my fancy.

When I first saw Magical Noemy I was intrigued - I like the character and mostly like her art (yay for bright colors, booty, and boob on boob 5th star - nay for overdone duck face and foot issues). I wasn't thrilled about her being yellow/physical though. I only have 4 Mythics currently and 2 are purple (courtesy of my not being able to resist Nike) so I'm trying to focus on the better elements given how much resources are required for Mythics.  I rarely use my yellow 5 star legendaries in battle unless they are blessed - does it make sense to spend so many resources on a yellow Mythic??

I had 80 saved fights coming in along with 5/11 SP leftover from Radka, so along with some natural regen I was able to get 14 shards "free." I thought about sticking with that and maybe trying to finish her off during her revival.

Ultimately, however, I decided to go for it. My main justification is that I want to have at least one Mythic of every element eventually, and I like Noemy a lot more than the other yellow Mythics. Even though I won't be able to fully upgrade her anytime soon (I'm already dreading how much affection it's going to take to get Radka, Nike and Noemy their 6th stars) I can chip away little by little, and gems won't be an issue since she'll be my main focus for yellow gems moving forward.

So without further ado, may I introduce my 5th Mythic, the buxom princess, Magical Noemy...

It took 690 fights and 6,166 kobans for refills (not counting SP cost), so overall not too bad. And now I have at least a month to save up kobans since I'm not going after Golden Lupa's revival.

Good luck to those still in the fray! At least there's plenty of shards available which makes it a relatively relaxing chase.

[Ravi-Sama]

4 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

getting Radka cost less than I anticipated (due to the 15% off combativity sale along with some good old luck) leaving open the possibility of going after an MD girl if she struck my fancy.

You were damn lucky w/ Radka!  It's almost like you got 2 mythics for 1, compared to the amount I spent to get U. Valentina w/ 2 SP (13.8k kos).  I was naive.  You're doing great.

4 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

yay for bright colors, booty, and boob on boob 5th star

Yay!  Yes.  Double yes.

4 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

I wasn't thrilled about her being yellow/physical though.

She's playful, but you get the idea.

4 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

2 are purple (courtesy of my not being able to resist Nike

I don't blame you.  If I couldn't restrain myself, I would've got Nike too, but then I would've missed Bright Agate.

4 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

does it make sense to spend so many resources on a yellow Mythic?

Of course.  It doesn't make sense to spend resources on any girl other than a mythic, unless you're trying to reach the lvl 750 awakening, or some L5 girl has a better blessing that week.

4 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

My main justification is that I want to have at least one Mythic of every element eventually, and I like Noemy a lot more than the other yellow Mythics.

Same here.  That's my goal too.  I'll get at least one of each mythic, and also, as many sensual/dominatrix that I can, to see what all the fuss is about.

4 hours ago, Julius Fox said:

now I have at least a month to save up kobans since I'm not going after Golden Lupa's revival.

I'm skipping Lupa too, I'd rather have Arcana.

[Julius Fox]

2 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

She's playful, but you get the idea.

Lol that's why I usually include the color, I still sometimes get the names of the elements mixed up 🤪

Edited July 5, 2022 by Julius Fox

[Gotaku]

Only getting her because its Peach. But what an excruciatingly bad droprate. Been at it for some time now and she so incredibly far behind on shards, and literally all the drops that are coming in are 1x's (boosted to 2). Havent seen a single 2 or 3x. Painful.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Gotaku

[JustVisitingReborn]

6 minutes ago, Gotaku said:

Only getting her because its Zelda. But what an excruciatingly bad droprate. Been at it for some time now and she so incredibly far behind on shards, and all the drops that are coming in are 1x's. Painful.

I thought Agate was Zelda and Nomey was Super Mario?

The drop rate for MD is 6-7% and you only ever receive 1 shard unless you're using Sandlewood Perfume (which you should be )

[Ravi-Sama]

3 hours ago, Gotaku said:

literally all the drops that are coming in are 1x's (boosted to 2). Havent seen a single 2 or 3x. Painful.

It's always been this way for mythic days.  You only get 1 shard, unless using SP for 2 shards, like @JustVisitingReborn said.

Girl Shard Ranges & Drop Rates:

Fighting Villains = 10% drop rate, & 1/1000 odds to get a 100 shard drop, (except for Mythic Days).

Adventure: World 2 Dark Lord's 1 star girls have a 1-2% drop rate.  Tier 1's shard range lessens per world.  Tier 2: 1-4.  Tier 3: 1-3.  Always available.
Orgy Days: 1-12.  Monthly.
Classic Event: 2-8.  Monthly.
Legendary Days: 1-3.  Occurs every 2 months.
ForePlay/Anniversary: 1-4.  January/August.
Epic Days: 1-5.  Retired.

Mythic Days/Revival: 1-1 (6.5% drop rate), a max of 2 shards from 50 drops, if using 5 SP.  9000 shards/2 hrs for 3 days vs. 4500 shards/2 hrs for 2 days.

Leagues: 18-25 in ranks 16-30th of Sexpert II - Dicktator III, (4-6 weeks to get the girl).  Rank in the bottom 15 to demote.
Kinky Cumpetition: Leagues 1-4 (10% drop rate).  Seasons 1-1 (50% drop rate).  Occurs twice a month.

Event Champions: 35 (50% drop rate), need to get shards 3 times to get the girl.  12.5% chance to get shards 3 times in a row.
Club Champions: 1-100, at least 1 shard if you use a ticket.  It's based on your % dmg, and player participation.  10% dmg & 30 participants = 13 shards.

Event Pachinko: 1800 kos 100, 22.5% drop rate.
Epic Pachinko: EPx1 100, 6% drop rate.
Mythic Pachinko: MPx1 100 (0.5-1% drop rate), MPx3 10, MPx6 25.
Great Pachinko: GPx10 100, 5% drop rate.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Ravi-Sama

[DvDivXXX]

35 minutes ago, Ravi-Sama said:

(correct me if I'm wrong)

Classic Event/Orgy Days: 0-12 (10% drop rate), & 100 (1/1000 odds).

Wrong:
CE: 2-8 range
OD: 1-12 range
(both 10% rate; everything that involves shard drops from fighting villains has a 10% rate except for MD)
ED: 1-5* range
(but ED has been retired as an event awhile back, so it doesn't really matter)
and you forgot the elusive but still active:
FP/A (ForePlay and/or Anniversary): 1-4* range as well

All good apart from that. Obv you note the ranges incorrectly for me with your "0" minimum, but I'm guessing you're speaking about what can be the result of a single fight or spin. I'm talking about the actual range of possible amounts when you do get a drop, aka the drop range. Don't really need to spell out that when you get nothing, that's zero, imho. ^^

  

35 minutes ago, Ravi-Sama said:

Adventure: 1 star girls have a 1-2% drop rate.

What are you referring to? There are 1-star girls in the Adventure mode? I only know those in GP.

Edited July 5, 2022 by DvDivXXX

[Ravi-Sama]

36 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

What are you referring to? There are 1-star girls in the Adventure mode? I only know those in GP.

They also drop from Dark Lord in world 2.

[Julius Fox]

31 minutes ago, Ravi-Sama said:

They also drop from Dark Lord in world 2.

When I first started playing and didn't know what the hell I was doing, I was trying to figure out how to get more girls and noticed that Dark Lord had dozens available and they dropped pretty frequently, so I spent probably several weeks using all my fights getting them because I didn't realize the difference between 1 star girls and others 🤦‍♂️😂

So yes, I can confirm that the entire pool of 1 star girls from GP can also be won from Dark Lord.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Julius Fox

[DvDivXXX]

You're right. I had completely forgotten because I've had all 1-stars for a long time now, and I typically go and grab the new ones from GP fairly quickly when they get released. Plus I don't pay a visit to the likes of Dark Lord unless an event forces me to. ^^ Thanks for the reminder. 👍

[Incubys]

Looks like I wont be getting her this time, currently on 47 shards from 24 drops from 500 fights (4.8%).  My last 100 fights have gained me 2 shards from 1 drop (1.0%) !

[Ravi-Sama]

6 hours ago, Incubys said:

Looks like I wont be getting her this time, currently on 47 shards from 24 drops from 500 fights (4.8%).  My last 100 fights have gained me 2 shards from 1 drop (1.0%) !

I'd keep trying to get her if I were you, since you've already invested so much.  You don't want her stuck at 47% for a year.  Luck can change by the end of it.  I also had a 4.71% drop rate at a certain point, about 255 CP into it, where it took me ~70 CP to get a drop.  It became a 6.62% drop rate by the end.  The bad luck tries to correct itself, the more fights you do.  Also, you must've made a mistake using SP, if you don't have 48 shards from 24 drops.  Hang in there, don't despair, take your time, since she has ~107k shards available atm.  Do single fights and save kobans.

[Gartalgar]

Il y a 3 heures, Ravi-Sama a dit :

The bad luck tries to correct itself, the more fights you do.

Saying it this way bothers me.

As far as we know, there is no correction or whatever, you just have around 6.5% chance to get a drop from each individual fight, that's all.

In Incubys's case, he might have a streak of good luck following that streak of bad one or the drop rate might stay low, you can't predict it as it's all random. The drop rate you've seen will not influence the drop rate you'll see, all fights are rolled independently.

Sure, the more fights you do, the closer to 6.5% it should get. But 600-1'100 fights is not enough to ensure you'll get very close, as we can see.

I've had a 4.80% total drop rate as well as a 8.92% drop rate on different mythics but the cumulative drop rate for all the mythics I've gotten is 6.27% (out of 3654 recorded fights).

Edited July 6, 2022 by Gartalgar

[JustVisitingReborn]

3 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

The bad luck tries to correct itself, the more fights you do.

 

22 minutes ago, Gartalgar said:

As far as we know, there is no correction or whatever, you just have around 6.5% chance to get a drop from each individual fight, that's all.

Gartalgar's correct - bad/good luck isn't corrected or balanced out. It's faded by the normal luck over time. At least as long as they haven't done anything hinky to the randomness, like triggers that improve or reduce the drop rate if you pass certain thresholds. But that would be madness in terms of overwork for a system this simple. Here's a fantastic article on the subject for those who are interested - The Denominator - Where "Due" Happens.

Edited July 6, 2022 by JustVisitingReborn

[JustVisitingReborn]

I've picked-up Nomey. [EDIT - and that's the server down for the Wed update. I sure am glad I got the last few shards before that happened!!!]

Stats:

Total Kost (including 5xSP): 1266 Nutaku Kobans (7596 HH). This is the joint cheapest Mythic I've picked-up since Undercover Valentina tied with Bright Agate last month who cost and identical amount!

769 Combativity used, 329 free (actual cost 24 Kobans for 3x50 play right at the start).

Drop rate was (for the seventh month in a row) below the average (7%) at 6.50%.

Along the way I picked up 48 MPs (drop 6.24%), 28 tickets (drop 3.64%) and 1500 gems (drop 9.75%).

Overall drop rate across all Mythics: 12674 Combativity used for 809 drops = 6.38%

Given the 'strongest girl' status of Magical Nomey on Nutaku next week, I'll be levelling her today to take advantage of the complimentary CbC and DC and I'll upgrade her over the coming week as relevant Missions come through. First time I've ever pushed through a Mythic so quickly. I usually wait for the PoA at the end of the month.

This month's Mythic was the least popular Mythic to date. I took a screenshot with 3.5 hours to go:

 

Looking at the figures at a similar point for the last few months:

- Bright Agate was at 81k
- Succubus Abreal was at 63k
- Druiada Titania was at 95k
- Sugarmama Lupa's Mum was at 75k
- Lovebot Norou was at 46k
- Angelic Lenaelle was at 63k

The pattern here still supports the idea that the 3rd Mythic of a Dominance is less popular. It also suggests reducing player engagement with MD. 180 fewer players on the Nutaku server picked up Magical Nomey compared with Bright Agate. 360 less than Succubus Abreal. This is interesting in itself as the more Mythics that are released, the more these girls come to dominate the combat mechanics of the game. Not having them becomes a substantive barrier to placing highly. Yet demand for them certainly seems to be tailing off. Of course, perhaps demand is decreasing as players come to rely on the MR, meaning that they know when this girl will turn up again so they're not as worried or willing to stretch resources now to get her. Or the anniversary month could be playing a role, with more players holding back resources for that, and giving a false read on any trend in this case....

--------------------------------

Predictions for July's Mythic (starting with most likely imo):

- Eccentric (red) - There are only currently 2 Eccentric Mythics, so this would bring Eccentric in line with Playful (yellow), Dominant (black), Exhibitionist (green) and Sensual (blue) at 3. It is the Dominance that has gone longest without (12 months) making it well overdue. I expected Eccentric both last month and this month, which suggests that length of time since the last Mythic of a colour isn't a strong indicator of likelihood, but nevertheless Eccentric still falls into that bracket of only having 2 active Mythics, meaning it's very likely to appear in the next four months.

- Physical (orange)/Submissive (White) - Physical's now overdue at 8 months since the last and Submissive's due at 7 and a new Mythic would only bring them up to 3.

- Voyeur (purple) - Only been 2 months since we had the last Voyeur last month, but again there are only 2 active Voyeur Mythics so another still maintains equilibrium.

- Playful (yellow)/Dominant (black)/Sensual (blue)/Exhibitionist (green) - We had a Playful this month, a Dominant last month, an Exhibitionist 3 months ago and Sensual 5 months ago. These are also the only Dominances with 3 Mythics so far. It seems very unlikely that they're going to turn up next month.

If I was to put my best guess out it would currently be:

- August - Eccentric (red)
- September - Physical (orange)
- October - Submissive (white)
- November - Voyeur (purple)

I'm already using the above to steer my strategy decisions and have started hoarding these gems accordingly to ensure that I have them available at the right times. This strategy has really paid off, ensuring that I had the resources (gems) available this month to act immediately to level up Nomey

Edited July 24, 2022 by JustVisitingReborn

[Gartalgar]

Well, after a bad start on free CP (9 drops on 208 fights, 4.33% drop rate), things improved when I started to refill today.

Final stats : 694 fights (208 free CP), 8'100 kobans (5 SP and 10 refills of 50, 14 CP left at the end), 7.35% drop rate (51 drops, forgot SP for the first drop at start)

I got a very very nice streak of 10 drops in 47 fights in the middle, beating my 9 out of 50 on Titania.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Gartalgar

[Liliat]

Amazing start on the event: since we had the 15% off for Radka, I kept my seasons combativity for Noemy. I started the event with 164 stored combativity. With natural regen and other free combativity I earned on the way, this brought me to 66% with 341 Fights, on free combativity alone (9.67% Drop rate)

Then the lucky drops continued all the way to... 98%, with less than 600 fights (~575, I'm not sure how many exactly).

And then... Server Maintenance happened (Very frustrating at 98% ). It didn't last long, so I could finish the last shard quickly after that. Well, almost. It took me approximately a hundred extra fights to get this #@!% last shard.

Final results:

- 50 Drops in 655 Fights (7.63% Drop rate)

- 313 Paid combativity, 342 Free combativity

- 12 combativity left after the last refill

- 3505 Kobans for refills, 5x540 for boosters: 6205 Kobans

While Noemy is not my best drop rate (I was hopeful until the very end...), she's by far my cheapest mythic girl yet (609 Kobans cheaper than Lenaëlle). So, except for the very frustrating final shard, this was a great event for me

Overall drop rates:

696 Drops in 10 177 fights: 6.88%

[Incubys]

I should have made it clear that all fights were saved / re-gens, no re-fills. I did buy couple SP boosters so not much investment so far. As @DvDivXXXstated she isn't a top tier girl so she will just be another pretty addition to my harem as and when I finally pick her up.

[Moonlynx]

I could get Magical Noemy, too. My fights with free combativity went pretty well - I had almost 30 shards after only 150 fights! But as soon as I started refilling, an ugly bad luck streak happened. The next 150 fights I had only 1 hit.

Just as I thought that I wouldn't get Noemy for less than 900 shards, the next good luck streak kicked in (4 drops with 10 fights were nice) and I'm very happy that I could convince her to join my harem with 732 fights and around 8000 koban, including sandalwood boosters. Could have been much worse.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Moonlynx

[jelom]

Another Mythical girl joined.

822 battles, 50 drops 100 shards (5 SP used). 6,08% drop rate. 

[Incubys]

Final stats : 620 fights (526 free / 94 paid) for 51 shards from 26 drops (4.19%).

Costs : re-fills : 1,008 kobans; SPs 3 : 1,620 (8 charges left from 3rd SP); Total 2,628.

Also obtained 24 tickets / 45 MyP / 30,792k yemens / 1.040 blue gems.

You just gotta know when to stop throwing good kobans after bad. Maybe it was KK's attempt to wipe out my koban stash as it's currently the highest it's ever been lol

[garadron]

I got her on the 2nd day because I'm impatient so it might have been a bit cheaper if I waited more. She's my 2nd most expensive so far although I didn't record the first 2:

[bolitho76]

287 combaticity from natural Regen, storaged Rewards, Pantheon etc.. 400 from Refills so the droprate is a little bit better than 7%.

I hadn't compiled all reported results of MD girls here, but I have the impression, that the real drochance is lower than 7%, not much but 0,1-0,25 points lower could be. It's not verified, more a feeling. Sadly I haven't the time to go threw all the old reports of the last years to control my feeling.

Oh, and another thing to point out at .com:

37 minutes before MD ends.

[madahmed]

This is my first run for a mythic girl and it was a tough one.

i saved 207 Cf before the event. i got from them 15 drops which got me 30 shards.

after that i used only natural regeneration  during the three days of the events. I was not lucky though

i got only 5 drops from 113 cf

the third day, i started to buy CF using kobans but i almost did not get her  because of the time; 10 minutes before the end of the event i was stuck at 86 shards.so , i started using cf by 10 each time but i was unlicky.

5 minutes before the end, i used the option of using 50 cf and i got 12 shards. quickly after that i used 10 cf to get the last two shards .

so in this event i used 5 SP which cost me 450 kobans  (i play on nutaku)

i used 742 kobans to buy cf

i used in general 740 cf to get Noemy. m drop rate was 6.75%.