Habi Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 @linkdream would you mind adding the highest level player(s) to your post? it is important to sort out duplicate reports. 😉 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 (edited) It’s Naraku-no-hana, lv360. PS: I’m interested to know why do you need that information. I tried to read your recap but I didn’t understand a thing sorry ._. Edited June 14, 2019 by linkdream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 1 hour ago, linkdream said: It’s Naraku-no-hana, lv360. PS: I’m interested to know why do you need that information. I tried to read your recap but I didn’t understand a thing sorry ._. honestly speaking? i don't know. 🤣 back when shal startet this thread it was mainly about predicting how long it will take to unlock the next tier. as we already have the highest tier unlocked and even more have established a reasonable player pool (>1000) the former intent doesn't really exist anymore. i probably took it over from shal and keep it going because i like doing maths. 😉 so basically i'm happy about every contribution i get but if this thread dies the other day then be it. i hope that answers your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Wave Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 6 hours ago, linkdream said: It’s Naraku-no-hana, lv360. PS: I’m interested to know why do you need that information. I tried to read your recap but I didn’t understand a thing sorry ._. It's probably best anyway to order your screenshot by level (starting with highest level), just to make sure your league is not counted twice if somebody else posts a duplicate. The ranking is very likely to change within the first days, the level order will stay most likely the same. This way we make Habi's job easier. 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 I like seeing the predictions and appreciate Habi's work. It only takes a minute so I keep posting my info but I agree the original purpose has been met. I suspect the lower tiers (W1-S2) are more statistically interesting right now. If anything radical is going to happen the first evidence will probably be there. The lower tiers are like the bottom of an oceanic trench. You got your local ecosystem plus a steady rain of dead whales drifting down. It would make yo-yoing more profitable. Push into a tier too high for you then tank. Spend a token against a dead lvl 300, lose, get 40 XP, and use up 1 point of demotion headroom, or go against a similar lvl, win, get 70 XP and use up 3 points of demotion headroom. Yummy dead whales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Habi said: honestly speaking? i don't know. 🤣 back when shal startet this thread it was mainly about predicting how long it will take to unlock the next tier. as we already have the highest tier unlocked and even more have established a reasonable player pool (>1000) the former intent doesn't really exist anymore. i probably took it over from shal and keep it going because i like doing maths. 😉 so basically i'm happy about every contribution i get but if this thread dies the other day then be it. i hope that answers your question. TBH, being a relatively new in the game, I have no clue what's going on here. What are you trying to predict exactly? What are the numbers you post supposed to mean? How does posting screenshots help? I thought it has always been 9 tiers, I have no idea it was an organic evolution. Well, when I stop and think about it for a second, it totally makes sense, but again why are you assuming it's going to stop at 9? I'm also interested to know the math behind the scene and understand the gibberish you post every time. Thanks! Edited June 14, 2019 by linkdream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 i can only give you a short answer right now: i don't have a PC available right now for the next days and typing that much is too cumbersome on the mobile. i'll try to give explanations when i'm back if no other players already did (what i'm hoping for 🤣) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 10 hours ago, linkdream said: TBH, being a relatively new in the game, I have no clue what's going on here. What are you trying to predict exactly? What are the numbers you post supposed to mean? How does posting screenshots help? I thought it has always been 9 tiers, I have no idea it was an organic evolution. Well, when I stop and think about it for a second, it totally makes sense, but again why are you assuming it's going to stop at 9? I'm also interested to know the math behind the scene and understand the gibberish you post every time. Thanks! Habi gets his wish! I will try and explain, I'm not doing tracking work, so the math may not be something I nail exactly. First, it hasn't always been 9 tiers full of people, we started in tier 1, and have grown from there. If you look at the first post in the thread, it shows the tracking efforts for Wanker 3 in season 3. There was no need to track anything in Season1, everyone was in Wanker 1. Likewise tracking in Season 2 would still not show much differentiation. I don't think anyone is really assuming it will stop at 9, but that's established the upper limit right now. People promoted to a new tier when there were enough to make a new tier, so that's how people have populated upwards. Posting screenshots or player lists helps track exactly what groups are being reported. If you note the top players in your group and the tier, the person(s) tracking know they have enough information to make sure they don't double count that group. If you just have, for example, 12 people posting with "I have 101 people in my group", you have no idea what group it is. So they need to not only identify the tier, but identify their group in some sort of way that it can be uniquely identified. No group should have an identical top 5 player names & levels. Going back to the early days, the first S1 group had exactly 180 players, so that told you that there were 180/15 = 12 W3 groups which had people promote out of the the week before. The next week, you have only 15 eligible for promotion from S1, which isn't enough for a group in S2, so they stay put. You add another group of promoting players which are 15 times the numbers of W3 groups, and subtract a number of demoting players, which is mostly fixed, but it's possible that more players have 0 points than the minimum number who get demoted. What the numbers are showing is estimated population of the group S3/D1/D2/D3. We now are at the point where the game could put another set of tiers above D3, due to there being just enough to populate that level, but I'd guess it's more likely that we see some more D3 groups first, as the player base continues to grow and move upwards. I hope that helped. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Holy shit @Zteev that's very clear. Now I feel stupid. I should have researched to understand how promotion/demotion works and how groups are made first but you were able to explain everything very clearly in a succinct post. Thank you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 my new D3 with 103 players. Gogeta won exceptionally fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 My D1 with 103 players has the following highest levels: LVL 353 Feli LVL 349 Fred42 LVL 347 RoSh LVL 346 J'aime pas les noirs LVL 345 harpo Congratulations to TSaulio who has won it already with a perfect score of 918. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casey Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 I finished all my battles few minutes ago in this seasons D3 undefeated, love those Kobans 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSonicSly Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Despite being much later than usual thanks to a mixup which resulted in Me forgeting that today was reset day, here's this weeks D2 with 106 players. 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 104 players in my D3, top Tatouf Métouf (who duly rush-won it, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yourfriend Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 D1, 104 people, top Tutut lv 355 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 My D2 (winner Pittthefish 350): Bobby76 362 MFucker 361 Jinto 358 ... and 103 more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy86 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 My D1 bracket this season: On a side note, why did I lose a battle so soon? For not paying attention; always pay attention 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 (edited) D1 // #103 Since the current first lost a battle, I expect a plot twist in the ranking soon. Edited June 20, 2019 by linkdream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 12 hours ago, Andy86 said: My D1 bracket this season: On a side note, why did I lose a battle so soon? For not paying attention; always pay attention 😅 thanks for the report. do you want to add the size of the group? 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy86 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Oops, I forgot it: the size is 103, thanks for the reminder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 D1 // #103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 (edited) On 6/13/2019 at 9:03 PM, Habi said: time for this weeks wrapup. data collected so far for active season 39: s3: ... d1: 4x100, 1x101 reported: prediction of 2722 is still possible but would imply way more 101 groups than 100 groups. because the reports are the other way round i'll rather correct the prediction down to 2707. and that means season 38's s3 prediction of 43xx was only 42xx. looks like it doesn't severely effect the dicktator predictions until season 41. (see new coloring scheme in the legend) d2: 2x106 reported: prediction of 1590 is very likely. groups with other sizes are not expected. d3: 2x106, 4x107 reported: i just assume the prediction of 1065 total (5x106, 5x107) as confirmed. updated predictions (still assuming s3 growth as before as it's too few data to reliably predict a slowdown curve, added season 46): Season 36: 41xx / 2452 / 1350 / 810 Season 37: 42xx / 2542 / 1440 / 885Season 38: 42xx / 2632 / 1515 / 975Season 39: 43xx? / 2707 / 1590 / 1065 Season 40: 44xx? / 2767? / 1695 / 1140 Season 41: 45xx? / 2857? / 1785? / 1215Season 42: 46xx? / 2947? / 1875? / 1290? Season 43: 47xx? / 3037? / 1950? / 1380? Season 44: 48xx? / 3127? / 2025? / 1470? Season 45: 49xx? / 3217? / 2100? / 1560?Season 46: 50xx? / 3307? / 2175? / 1650? legend: the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold. every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it. predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. this is a rather simple but hopefully effective visualization of how slowly corrections in the low tiers spread into the high tiers. (if you inspect this week's data you can see that i would have to add a lot more seasons to the predictions to make this effect more visible. but going too far into the future makes no sense imo) several seasons in the future where the assumed s3 growth might start to slow down are marked italic. in other words: they are very likely slightly wrong. ... time for this weeks wrapup. data collected so far for active season 40: s3: ... d1: 5x103, 1x104 reported: thanks to the 104 report it is clear that the prediction was too low. it must be at least 2782. i'll also go with that number because it's 15 more than predicted and i treat it as lucky incident that the sole 104 group was also reported. also going up by 30 seems unrealistic in terms of backwards corrections. now this week (or better said last week) something i already suspected to maybe happening indeed happened. the s3 size stalled at 42xx in season 38 but with the data provided so far it must have skipped 43xx and jumped directly into the 44xx range in season 39. this might mean the s3 growth is still rather strong and only slowly decelerates. it can also just be an outburst while settling at a lower growth rate. the next weeks will bring clarity. lots of green numbers this week thanks to this. d2: 2x106 reported: prediction of 1695 is very likely. only one group with 105 players expected and it's unlikely that it will be reported. d3: 1x103, 3x104 reported: i just assume the prediction of 1140 total (4x103, 7x104) as confirmed. updated predictions (removed the italic markup because i think it's not very useful. updated predictions marked with the new coloring scheme should be more effective): Season 36: 41xx / 2452 / 1350 / 810 Season 37: 42xx / 2542 / 1440 / 885 Season 38: 42xx / 2632 / 1515 / 975 Season 39: 44xx / 2707 / 1590 / 1065Season 40: 45xx? / 2782 / 1695 / 1140 Season 41: 46xx? / 2887? / 1785 / 1215 Season 42: 47xx? / 2992? / 1875? / 1290 Season 43: 48xx? / 3097? / 1950? / 1380? Season 44: 49xx? / 3202? / 2025? / 1470? Season 45: 50xx? / 3277? / 2115? / 1560? Season 46: 51xx? / 3382? / 2190? / 1650? legend: the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold. every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it. predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. ... Edited June 22, 2019 by Habi 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Here is my Dicktator I for this week (103 players, from level 233 to level 354): Again, this turn is still in contrast with the past few weeks, as there is still no certain winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Wave Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 D3 with 102 players, congratz Horndog for winning 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSonicSly Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Here's My D2 bracket for this week... Zzz... huh, what?? Oh, with 105 players... Zzz... *groan* 😴 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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