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Identifying the Dicktator league brackets


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On 8/22/2019 at 9:57 PM, Habi said:

time for this weeks wrapup.

data collected so far for active season 49:

  • d1: 1x101 reported: looks like the d1 pool enters a region where reliable predictions are becoming impossible. without getting at least 28 reports of 101 player groups or 13 reports of 102 player groups i can't say if the player pool is 3562 as predicted or is just 3547 (due to another s3 stall). so until it can be proven backwards it will remain marked as uncertain. the predictions table might need to be adapted in some weeks and shift the uncertain assumptions from s3 to d1.
  • d2: 1x101, 6x102 reported: prediction of 2445 is very likely.
  • d3: 1x104, 4x105 reported: looks like i had a calculation mistake (due to the downcorrection of s48 prediction) and had all d3 values from s49 to s54 too low by 15 players. coincidentially s55 was correct because of the change of group count in s54. i corrected all values. because it was a calculation mistake and not a wrong prediction i won't colorize it. and here's the usual d3 text: i just assume the prediction of 1888 total (2x104, 16x105) as confirmed.

updated predictions (can't eliminate more ? as long as no d1 are reported):

Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648
Season 47: 50xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723
Season 48: 51xx? / 3472 / 2370 / 1798
Season 49: 52xx? / 3562? / 2445 / 1888
Season 50: 53xx? / 3652? / 2520? / 1978
Season 51: 54xx? / 3742? / 2595? / 2068?

Season 52: 55xx? / 3817? / 2700? / 2143?
Season 53: 56xx? / 3907? / 2775? / 2233?
Season 54: 57xx? / 3982? / 2880? / 2308?
Season 55: 58xx? / 4087? / 2955? / 2383?

legend:

  • the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold.
  • every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it.
  • predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after)
  • ...

time for this weeks wrapup.

data collected so far for active season 50:

  • d1: 1x103 reported: i doubt the pool has increased to 3682 or 3697 to make that 103 group possible. it's more like the pool is still in the 35xx range, most likely 3592, using that number as corrected prediction. that also means that the d1 pool in s49 was significantly smaller but still in the 35xx range because of this week's most likely correct d2 prediction. s48's d1 prediction was most likely too high already aswell (as mentioned in the regarding post back then) so i'll start from there to  correct all predictions backwards and forwards to my best knowledge so it makes a little sense again. on an interesting sidenote: s55's d3 prediction remains intact despite everything else being corrected down. 😂 the d1 growth rate significantly dropped now and that will also reach d2 and d3 within a few weeks/months each.
  • d2: 1x100, 5x101 reported: prediction of 2520 is very likely.
  • d3: 3x104, 1x105 reported: i just assume the prediction of 1978 total (17x104, 2x105) as confirmed.

updated predictions (due to the backwards corrections i'm using the same s3 pool for 2 weeks now before it grows again. looks like a better pattern now):

Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648
Season 47: 49xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723
Season 48: 50xx / 3457 / 2370 / 1798
Season 49: 50xx / 3532 / 2445 / 1888
Season 50: 51xx? / 3592 / 2520 / 1978
Season 51: 51xx? / 3682? / 2580 / 2068

Season 52: 52xx? / 3742? / 2670? / 2143
Season 53: 52xx? / 3802? / 2760? / 2218?
Season 54: 53xx? / 3847? / 2850? / 2293?
Season 55: 53xx? / 3922? / 2910? / 2383?

legend:

  • the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold.
  • every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it.
  • predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after)
  • ...
Edited by Habi
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My Dicktator II for this week (101 players, from level 275 to level 380):

blob.png.3038e67274ed7f6a6a71ddd1e83ce238.png

Not sure if the two actual top players, Battosai (1225 points) and Zoeloco (825) have used some refills: up to now I did 39 battles (657 points) but I have an average of only 16,84 points per battle.

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My D1 league this week has Ebal at level 368 as the highest leveled player out of 103.

We have someone who has done some refilling, but hasn't fully rushed. they are woefully under-leveled and under-powered to finish in the top 4, let alone first.

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thanks to @Zteev's d1 report i was able to massively rework the current predictions. i think it's worth mentioning in a separate post here so i can notify interested people about that. (silently editing the post would most likely go unnoticed)

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9 hours ago, Habi said:

thanks to @Zteev's d1 report i was able to massively rework the current predictions. i think it's worth mentioning in a separate post here so i can notify interested people about that. (silently editing the post would most likely go unnoticed)

Glad to help. We'll see how much longer I end up staying in D1. This week is going really well so far, but I've already missed some attacks.

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There are a 103 players this week in My D2 and hey, I'm the highest level player by 5 levels, I'm in 1st place by 5 points, which may only hold up for about another 5 mintues lol. How ironic! Five-ception. 😂

20190905_110725.jpg.aa163c72439159dff0de1215305bd8d0.jpg

Update: Alas, still in 1st. The Five-ception theory didn't exactly hold up... but one can still dream... 😴 get it? Ah, nevermind. 🤷‍♂️

Edited by TheSonicSly
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Highest level player in my D2 bracket with 103 players is DreX, level 375.

I promoted up to d2, but sadly finished 5th. Had some PC issues today, and missed a lot of attacks, plus had some stuff to do in the hour os so before rollover, so I missed some there as well. I surely could've had 4th if I spent less time dealing with my ISP today, or the matters that came up. Oh well.

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On 8/29/2019 at 8:13 PM, Habi said:

time for this weeks wrapup.

data collected so far for active season 50:

  • d1: 1x103 reported: i doubt the pool has increased to 3682 or 3697 to make that 103 group possible. it's more like the pool is still in the 35xx range, most likely 3592, using that number as corrected prediction. that also means that the d1 pool in s49 was significantly smaller but still in the 35xx range because of this week's most likely correct d2 prediction. s48's d1 prediction was most likely too high already aswell (as mentioned in the regarding post back then) so i'll start from there to  correct all predictions backwards and forwards to my best knowledge so it makes a little sense again. on an interesting sidenote: s55's d3 prediction remains intact despite everything else being corrected down. 😂 the d1 growth rate significantly dropped now and that will also reach d2 and d3 within a few weeks/months each.
  • d2: 1x100, 5x101 reported: prediction of 2520 is very likely.
  • d3: 3x104, 1x105 reported: i just assume the prediction of 1978 total (17x104, 2x105) as confirmed.

updated predictions (due to the backwards corrections i'm using the same s3 pool for 2 weeks now before it grows again. looks like a better pattern now):

Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648
Season 47: 49xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723
Season 48: 50xx / 3457 / 2370 / 1798
Season 49: 50xx / 3532 / 2445 / 1888
Season 50: 51xx? / 3592 / 2520 / 1978
Season 51: 51xx? / 3682? / 2580 / 2068

Season 52: 52xx? / 3742? / 2670? / 2143
Season 53: 52xx? / 3802? / 2760? / 2218?
Season 54: 53xx? / 3847? / 2850? / 2293?
Season 55: 53xx? / 3922? / 2910? / 2383?

legend:

  • the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold.
  • every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it.
  • predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after)
  • ...

time for this weeks wrapup.

data collected so far for active season 51:

  • d1: 1x103 reported: prediction of 3682 is very likely.
  • d2: 4x103 reported: prediction of 2580 is very likely.
  • d3: 7x103 reported: i just assume the prediction of 2068 total (12x103, 8x104) as confirmed. although the distribution of the reported groups makes me a little wary. i've heard rumors of a few people being banned again, up to 21 of them might have been in the d3 pool. until otherwise proven i'll stick to the numbers.

updated predictions:

Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648
Season 47: 49xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723
Season 48: 50xx / 3457 / 2370 / 1798
Season 49: 50xx / 3532 / 2445 / 1888
Season 50: 51xx? / 3592 / 2520 / 1978
Season 51: 51xx? / 3682? / 2580 / 2068
Season 52: 52xx? / 3742? / 2670? / 2143
Season 53: 52xx? / 3802? / 2760? / 2218?
Season 54: 53xx? / 3847? / 2850? / 2293?
Season 55: 53xx? / 3922? / 2910? / 2383?

legend:

  • the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold.
  • every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it.
  • predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after)
  • ...
Edited by Habi
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