DHarry Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 D3, 104 players, MaxPain highest lvl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 (edited) On 8/22/2019 at 9:57 PM, Habi said: time for this weeks wrapup. data collected so far for active season 49: d1: 1x101 reported: looks like the d1 pool enters a region where reliable predictions are becoming impossible. without getting at least 28 reports of 101 player groups or 13 reports of 102 player groups i can't say if the player pool is 3562 as predicted or is just 3547 (due to another s3 stall). so until it can be proven backwards it will remain marked as uncertain. the predictions table might need to be adapted in some weeks and shift the uncertain assumptions from s3 to d1. d2: 1x101, 6x102 reported: prediction of 2445 is very likely. d3: 1x104, 4x105 reported: looks like i had a calculation mistake (due to the downcorrection of s48 prediction) and had all d3 values from s49 to s54 too low by 15 players. coincidentially s55 was correct because of the change of group count in s54. i corrected all values. because it was a calculation mistake and not a wrong prediction i won't colorize it. and here's the usual d3 text: i just assume the prediction of 1888 total (2x104, 16x105) as confirmed. updated predictions (can't eliminate more ? as long as no d1 are reported): Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648 Season 47: 50xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723 Season 48: 51xx? / 3472 / 2370 / 1798Season 49: 52xx? / 3562? / 2445 / 1888 Season 50: 53xx? / 3652? / 2520? / 1978 Season 51: 54xx? / 3742? / 2595? / 2068? Season 52: 55xx? / 3817? / 2700? / 2143? Season 53: 56xx? / 3907? / 2775? / 2233? Season 54: 57xx? / 3982? / 2880? / 2308? Season 55: 58xx? / 4087? / 2955? / 2383? legend: the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold. every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it. predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after) ... time for this weeks wrapup. data collected so far for active season 50: d1: 1x103 reported: i doubt the pool has increased to 3682 or 3697 to make that 103 group possible. it's more like the pool is still in the 35xx range, most likely 3592, using that number as corrected prediction. that also means that the d1 pool in s49 was significantly smaller but still in the 35xx range because of this week's most likely correct d2 prediction. s48's d1 prediction was most likely too high already aswell (as mentioned in the regarding post back then) so i'll start from there to correct all predictions backwards and forwards to my best knowledge so it makes a little sense again. on an interesting sidenote: s55's d3 prediction remains intact despite everything else being corrected down. 😂 the d1 growth rate significantly dropped now and that will also reach d2 and d3 within a few weeks/months each. d2: 1x100, 5x101 reported: prediction of 2520 is very likely. d3: 3x104, 1x105 reported: i just assume the prediction of 1978 total (17x104, 2x105) as confirmed. updated predictions (due to the backwards corrections i'm using the same s3 pool for 2 weeks now before it grows again. looks like a better pattern now): Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648 Season 47: 49xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723 Season 48: 50xx / 3457 / 2370 / 1798 Season 49: 50xx / 3532 / 2445 / 1888Season 50: 51xx? / 3592 / 2520 / 1978 Season 51: 51xx? / 3682? / 2580 / 2068 Season 52: 52xx? / 3742? / 2670? / 2143 Season 53: 52xx? / 3802? / 2760? / 2218? Season 54: 53xx? / 3847? / 2850? / 2293? Season 55: 53xx? / 3922? / 2910? / 2383? legend: the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold. every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it. predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after) ... Edited August 30, 2019 by Habi 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 My Dicktator II for this week (101 players, from level 275 to level 380): Not sure if the two actual top players, Battosai (1225 points) and Zoeloco (825) have used some refills: up to now I did 39 battles (657 points) but I have an average of only 16,84 points per battle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 My D1 league this week has Ebal at level 368 as the highest leveled player out of 103. We have someone who has done some refilling, but hasn't fully rushed. they are woefully under-leveled and under-powered to finish in the top 4, let alone first. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 (edited) D2 // #101 Edit: I'm blind :facepalm: Edited August 30, 2019 by linkdream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 thanks to @Zteev's d1 report i was able to massively rework the current predictions. i think it's worth mentioning in a separate post here so i can notify interested people about that. (silently editing the post would most likely go unnoticed) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 9 hours ago, Habi said: thanks to @Zteev's d1 report i was able to massively rework the current predictions. i think it's worth mentioning in a separate post here so i can notify interested people about that. (silently editing the post would most likely go unnoticed) Glad to help. We'll see how much longer I end up staying in D1. This week is going really well so far, but I've already missed some attacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSonicSly Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) There are a 103 players this week in My D2 and hey, I'm the highest level player by 5 levels, I'm in 1st place by 5 points, which may only hold up for about another 5 mintues lol. How ironic! Five-ception. 😂 Update: Alas, still in 1st. The Five-ception theory didn't exactly hold up... but one can still dream... 😴 get it? Ah, nevermind. 🤷♂️ Edited September 5, 2019 by TheSonicSly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Highest level player in my D2 bracket with 103 players is DreX, level 375. I promoted up to d2, but sadly finished 5th. Had some PC issues today, and missed a lot of attacks, plus had some stuff to do in the hour os so before rollover, so I missed some there as well. I surely could've had 4th if I spent less time dealing with my ISP today, or the matters that came up. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 103 players in my new D3 bracket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I am a little chuffed to be able to report on my D3: [CNO] Cadmos 405, snycma at 402, 103 players total. I am 351L (78th), so having 2 400+ is sorta nice in a decorative sense but affects me not at all. We will see how it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Wave Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 D3 with 103 players: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator FinderKeeper Posted September 5, 2019 Moderator Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) D1 with 103 players median lvl 310 Edited September 9, 2019 by FinderKeeper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 103 players, Bananajoy highest at 398 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy86 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 My D2 bracket this season, with 103 players: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 D3 // #103 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 My Dicktator II for this week (103 players, from level 229 to level 379): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 (edited) On 8/29/2019 at 8:13 PM, Habi said: time for this weeks wrapup. data collected so far for active season 50: d1: 1x103 reported: i doubt the pool has increased to 3682 or 3697 to make that 103 group possible. it's more like the pool is still in the 35xx range, most likely 3592, using that number as corrected prediction. that also means that the d1 pool in s49 was significantly smaller but still in the 35xx range because of this week's most likely correct d2 prediction. s48's d1 prediction was most likely too high already aswell (as mentioned in the regarding post back then) so i'll start from there to correct all predictions backwards and forwards to my best knowledge so it makes a little sense again. on an interesting sidenote: s55's d3 prediction remains intact despite everything else being corrected down. 😂 the d1 growth rate significantly dropped now and that will also reach d2 and d3 within a few weeks/months each. d2: 1x100, 5x101 reported: prediction of 2520 is very likely. d3: 3x104, 1x105 reported: i just assume the prediction of 1978 total (17x104, 2x105) as confirmed. updated predictions (due to the backwards corrections i'm using the same s3 pool for 2 weeks now before it grows again. looks like a better pattern now): Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648 Season 47: 49xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723 Season 48: 50xx / 3457 / 2370 / 1798 Season 49: 50xx / 3532 / 2445 / 1888Season 50: 51xx? / 3592 / 2520 / 1978 Season 51: 51xx? / 3682? / 2580 / 2068 Season 52: 52xx? / 3742? / 2670? / 2143 Season 53: 52xx? / 3802? / 2760? / 2218? Season 54: 53xx? / 3847? / 2850? / 2293? Season 55: 53xx? / 3922? / 2910? / 2383? legend: the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold. every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it. predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after) ... time for this weeks wrapup. data collected so far for active season 51: d1: 1x103 reported: prediction of 3682 is very likely. d2: 4x103 reported: prediction of 2580 is very likely. d3: 7x103 reported: i just assume the prediction of 2068 total (12x103, 8x104) as confirmed. although the distribution of the reported groups makes me a little wary. i've heard rumors of a few people being banned again, up to 21 of them might have been in the d3 pool. until otherwise proven i'll stick to the numbers. updated predictions: Season 46: 49xx / 3322 / 2175 / 1648 Season 47: 49xx / 3382 / 2280 / 1723 Season 48: 50xx / 3457 / 2370 / 1798 Season 49: 50xx / 3532 / 2445 / 1888 Season 50: 51xx? / 3592 / 2520 / 1978Season 51: 51xx? / 3682? / 2580 / 2068 Season 52: 52xx? / 3742? / 2670? / 2143 Season 53: 52xx? / 3802? / 2760? / 2218? Season 54: 53xx? / 3847? / 2850? / 2293? Season 55: 53xx? / 3922? / 2910? / 2383? legend: the active season (while this current post is maintained) is bold. every prediction/assumption that is uncertain has a '?' with it. predictions that were corrected down are red, predictions corrected up are green. if a corrected prediction influences the number of groups in addition to the player pool it will be underlined aswell. (extra info: whenever there is an underlined number the red/green spreads to neighbouring tiers the season after) ... Edited September 7, 2019 by Habi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSonicSly Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Though later than usual, here's My D2 bracket for this week with 103 players with Me as the highest level player again but by 2 levels this time. Waves back to @Shal 👋😄 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Wave Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 D3 with 102 players total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 I stayed in D2, so the D1 reports will slow down, I guess. My D2 has 102 players with Naraku-no-Hana as top player at level 377 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Салерион Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 D2, 103 players: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy86 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 My D2 bracket this season, with 102 players: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator FinderKeeper Posted September 12, 2019 Moderator Share Posted September 12, 2019 D1 with 102 players. Median player lvl is at 315. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Stuck around in D3 so here is this week. D3, 102 players: syncma 404 (losing not found, up 2 since last week) is top (up 1) [CNO]MiMiL 395. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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