jaybee Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) My math tells me something like 2+3+4+5+6+7+8 divided by... 7? Putting the average drop at 5? And with 10-11% drop chance preserved, it's now 200 battles or less on average to get a girl. But I am usually horribly wrong every time I try to do maths. My one complete girl is currently with those stats: 179 fights - 20 drops - 11.1% drop rate 100 shards - 5 shard average per drop I thought I had incredibly good luck but with a 2-8 shard range I was just boringly average. Edited February 6, 2020 by jaybee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaybee said: It's impossible to be this lucky, collectively. Someone with math skills can calculate how much of an improvement the 2-8 shard range (all the numbers in equal measures), is compared to 1-6. At least it's an improvement psychologically. Even if 2 is the new 1, you feel that at least you got something when you get a 2. Even when you know that it's impossible to do worse than 2 shards. What it does is moving the upper boundary of shard drops needed down from 100 to 50 for a girl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator FinderKeeper Posted February 6, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted February 6, 2020 26 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said: Definitely. Even getting a 1 when the range is 1-3 feels worse than getting a 2 when the range is higher than that. And I won't risk doing the maths, but I'd be surprised if 2-8 isn't significantly better than 1-8 (let alone 1-6). A bit of math for reference: For 1-6 shard drop range, average is (1+6)/2 = 3.5 shards, for 1-8 shards - 4.5 shards, 2-8 shards - 5 shards. 1-8 range increase over 1-6 range is ( 4.5/3.5 - 1)*100% = approx. 28.6%, 2-8 range over 1-6 range - approx. 42.9%. With 3.5 avg shards you would need 100/3.5 = 28.6 drops, with 4.5 you'd need 22.2, with 5 you'd need 20. With 10% drop chance this results in 286, 222, and 200 fights respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) Hey good people.. just saw this posted on another topic by another player... Since we were discussing it before, here it is. -> Edited February 6, 2020 by Karyia link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Sounds awful. A big benefit of this system is that it benefits new players farming the early boss girls getting a bunch of epic flowers because they got heaps of extra shards on a common girl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, GeorgeMTO said: Sounds awful. A big benefit of this system is that it benefits new players farming the early boss girls getting a bunch of epic flowers because they got heaps of extra shards on a common girl. I posted it because of the 9-shard drop 😅 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) That's not a 9-shard drop, that's the countdown of his Date Arianne shards from 100+ to 0, coincidentally captured on that moment. (And it's after an x10 battle, anyway.) Edited February 6, 2020 by _shal_ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) 38 minuti fa, Karyia ha scritto: I posted it because of the 9-shard drop 😅 Yes, but it isn't a 9 shard single drop. That player completed Date Arianne with 111 shards (I think), and got a screen with 2 of the surplus shards already changed in epic flowers, and it is for sure from a x10 battles with more than one drop (or a x100 when Arianne was at 11 shards). Even considering as possible a x9 single drop (or a maybe x11 as @DvDivXXX club mate claims), in order to reach 109 (or 111) Arianne should have been already at 100 shards, aka already dropped (Sorry shal, you outspeeded me) Edited February 6, 2020 by Antimon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, _shal_ said: That's not a 9-shard drop, that's the countdown of his Date Arianne shards from 100+ to 0, coincidentally captured on that moment. (And it's after an x10 battle, anyway.) Oh 😮 Darn, I thought that was it Sorry about that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 hours ago, Karyia said: I posted it because of the 9-shard drop 😅 Ah sorry, yeah, because it wasn't on the battle result screen I didn't even think that was what you thought it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Another one complete 168 fights - 19 drops - 11.3% drop rate 103 shards - 5.4 shards per drop Not a single 1 shard (or 9 shards) and again, a perfectly average result for the 2-8 shard range and old drop rate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falco82 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 I just got the last girl from the event, Norou, and I can say a few things. First, regarding the graphics I confirm that Norou is bad, in her affection scenes Arianne also appears very badly drawn (while in those of Arianne appears a really nice Norou 😍). Second, no 9 shard drop (it seemed obvious to me but it seems that for everyone it's not so I underline it). Third, it seems that doubts about the new system were unfounded, taking 3 girls in 12 days is possible. Yes, ok, this time I was lucky and I took the third one with a x100 but I completed the first 2 ahead of time and the same happened on GH where I still have to finish the third guy but I think I can do it without too many problems. On average I needed 165 battles for each against the 250+ of the previous times, so not bad also considering the additional combativeness given from the contests. We will certainly need more data and we will see in the next events but at the moment I would say that the new system is promoted (everything except the drawer of Norou, Anita and maybe Cori, that is rejected 😝). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 12 hours ago, Falco82 said: Third, it seems that doubts about the new system were unfounded, taking 3 girls in 12 days is possible. Yes, ok, this time I was lucky and I took the third one with a x100 but I completed the first 2 ahead of time and the same happened on GH where I still have to finish the third guy but I think I can do it without too many problems. On average I needed 165 battles for each against the 250+ of the previous times, so not bad also considering the additional combativeness given from the contests. We will certainly need more data and we will see in the next events but at the moment I would say that the new system is promoted (everything except the drawer of Norou, Anita and maybe Cori, that is rejected 😝). Then, either you were more lucky than you think, or I was more unlucky that you think. Up to now I needed nearly five full days to make Arianne drop, and after emptying a nearly full bar one hour ago, near the end of the eigth day I have Levitya at 51/100, meaning that in the hypothesis of obtaining all three girls, I am nearly two days (or 49 shards, if you prefer) late. You are definitely right when you said that we will need more data from the next events, but for now I strongly disagree with your promoting of the new system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 You are just more unlucky than almost anyone. Almost everyone is ahead of you and even in this forum account where I log in a couple of times a day (i.e. 30-40 fights a day, maximum), yesterday and a couple of other days just once (i.e. 20 fights a day), I have one full girl and 48/100 on the other. Generally I have had more days with 30+ shards than poorer days and there are frequent reports of obtaining 25-30 shards from a single 10x pull. You are certainly in the unluckiest group at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Observer_X said: Then, either you were more lucky than you think, or I was more unlucky that you think. Up to now I needed nearly five full days to make Arianne drop, and after emptying a nearly full bar one hour ago, near the end of the eigth day I have Levitya at 51/100, meaning that in the hypothesis of obtaining all three girls, I am nearly two days (or 49 shards, if you prefer) late. You are definitely right when you said that we will need more data from the next events, but for now I strongly disagree with your promoting of the new system. I guess you're being unlucky (or the others are being lucky). I did get quite a good number of high shard drops (6-8), what about you? This might make quite the difference, I think. I can tell you that Arianne was being the hardest of the 3 to get but I was even luckier and got a 100-drop on her 😅 Must be a extra-cupid thing or something 💖 I do agree that just one event is hardly enough to make definite conclusions 👍 But this specific event went quite well over here 👌 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Lust Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 For me acquiring Arianne was relatively easy. I do not know why. I got her a few days ago. And the same with Livitya. For me acquiring Norou has been like pulling teeth, very tough. With 3 days and 10 hours left I only have 61 of the shards needed. And to my recollection, most of her shard drops, which were rare compared to the other 2 girls, were usually 6-8 in the drop. I apologize for my lack of solid drop data. I'll try better to gather information in the next event. Wishing all Good Gaming and an early Happy Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, Karyia said: I guess you're being unlucky (or the others are being lucky). I did get quite a good number of high shard drops (6-8), what about you? This might make quite the difference, I think. I usually don't keep drop data, so I have to go by memory, but as far as I remember I had a few 6-8 while fighting Gruntt for Arianne, and just a couple of 5 and one 6 since I started fighting Donatien for Levitya. Which, I would like to point out, after other 30 combativity spent is still held at 51/100. And during this event it is at least the fourth time I have an unlucky streak of 20-40 tries, a thing which never happened to me before in a main event (since the introduction of the affection feature). Edited February 9, 2020 by Observer_X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casket Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Arianne was really bad for me. I got Levytia relatively quick, on Arianne I had a 2 drop that brought me to 98 and then took a little over 60 battles before I got the next drop, so I just finished her now. No way I'm getting Norou too without spending kobans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Lust Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 (edited) I do not recall exact details. Next event I'll record them. But I can recall that in order to get the 3 "non-Pachinko" girls, Arianne, Norou.and Levitya, I had to do about 6 reloads of combativity. Aquiring Val Cupid will be easy. Just daily event every day. I should have just been patient as there are still 2 days left. It might only take 3-4 reloads. I just wished to get the girls before the contest ended and not have to rush at the last second with reloads. Edited February 10, 2020 by Dr. Lust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 22 hours ago, Observer_X said: I usually don't keep drop data, so I have to go by memory, but as far as I remember I had a few 6-8 while fighting Gruntt for Arianne, and just a couple of 5 and one 6 since I started fighting Donatien for Levitya. Which, I would like to point out, after other 30 combativity spent is still held at 51/100. And during this event it is at least the fourth time I have an unlucky streak of 20-40 tries, a thing which never happened to me before in a main event (since the introduction of the affection feature). Yeah, this might be the difference. I had multiple of those drops both for Norou and Levitya, which made it quicker and easier to get them. On the other side, I had some initial trouble with Arianne but got the 100-drop on her 3rd drop, so I surely was on the lucky side of things on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pepe Lolo Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 (edited) Is a good thing this event arrived in winter, because some of the girls it brings are as hot as hell 🤪 EDIT: I would pay a ton of kobans for having Lovely Kori in my collection, but not to that no-warranty betrayal-machine called "event pachinko" ò.Ó Edited February 10, 2020 by Pepe Lolo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 hours ago, Karyia said: Yeah, this might be the difference. I had multiple of those drops both for Norou and Levitya, which made it quicker and easier to get them. On the other side, I had some initial trouble with Arianne but got the 100-drop on her 3rd drop, so I surely was on the lucky side of things on this one. Between yesterday night and this morning my shard drop rate skyrocketed, bringing Levitya from 51/100 to 95/100 in 35 tries. I believe I have established my personal record drop in the second half, where 17 tries gave up 29 shards (three x7 and one x8). One and a half hour ago I started emptying another full combativity bar, and on the second try another x8 made Levitya drop with a x3 flower bonus. After upgrading her affection, i emptied the remaining combativity on Dark Lord, obtaining 8 shards for Akhates and only 2 for Norou. It was already taken into account, but I consider quite obvious that without a lucky 100 or another (more longer) drop skyrocketing, I will hardly obtain Norou before next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Observer_X said: Between yesterday night and this morning my shard drop rate skyrocketed, bringing Levitya from 51/100 to 95/100 in 35 tries. I believe I have established my personal record drop in the second half, where 17 tries gave up 29 shards (three x7 and one x8). One and a half hour ago I started emptying another full combativity bar, and on the second try another x8 made Levitya drop with a x3 flower bonus. After upgrading her affection, i emptied the remaining combativity on Dark Lord, obtaining 8 shards for Akhates and only 2 for Norou. It was already taken into account, but I consider quite obvious that without a lucky 100 or another (more longer) drop skyrocketing, I will hardly obtain Norou before next year. Good to hear At least you're getting better results! Since you had such low shard drops, you might get the opposite now. I seem to recall having something like 30 or so shards in one full bar, so.... not impossible! Improbable but you never know! Only by trying! 🙏👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I had used a few kobans in each account for these girls, but only around 550. For my six accounts I have managed to get all three girls in four accounts and relatively easily. So both the drop rate and the shard value was an improvement on those previous, although those frustrating 40 performances in a row for zero shards can still take place, as I can testify - especially when I've had girls at x95 or x97. In addition, I managed to get Bolt in another account as well as finally gaining the affection (or whatever she might call it) of Esperance. I've maxed her affection and I finally learned the mystery of both her and Aghates, but I'll keep that to myself. I agree that the so-called x9 shard drop posted was an illusion because, yes, it was clear that it was part of a countdown to zero from completing the attraction for that girl. In my case (on Day 1 and right at the beginning) I was certain I had a x9 drop and I'm kicking myself for not screen-shotting it because it didn't happen again. I was taken aback by it as these are just not supposed to happen for a classic event. It was a normal drop, not a countdown. Since that time it wasn't repeated, making me think I must've imagined it, an admission of which would make GeorgeMTO smugly rubbing his hands in glee no doubt. Not to worry, because I've had plenty of x8, x7, x5 and x1 drops, etc - oddly enough, not one x6 drop. I was becoming convinced that the x100 drops were a thing of the past until this happened (again in Peregrine Took): Re. the girls themselves, I found Norou the weakest in terms of artwork and Levitya the most pleasant surprise (I can't comment on the Pachinko-only girls in anything other than their opening poses). Good facial and hands expression of Arianne for her second-to-last pose. I'm really looking forward to getting this version of Cupid Chan because she is absolutely stunning, especially her eyes and what she is (almost) wearing. But the question I have is this... Are we talking about a different artist, or the original artist trying out a new technique and style? I'm by no means certain. The hint to me that it is a different artist is that there is a certain sameness in how boobs are drawn, more rounded and consistently larger overall. The original Norou had more pointed boobs than the new one. There is a pretty obvious match to the artwork of the Far West Girls, notably for Arianne and Levitya, especially lips and eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaa Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 finished the event yesterday with 308 shards. Didnt get a 1-shard drop, a 9-shard drop and also no 100x. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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