Joker555 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said: No. But it raises your chances of getting books or boosters to Nutaku players' level. If this was your very first girl drop from MPx1 spins, you had a pretty bad run indeed. Welcome to the club! ^^ It wasn't first, I tried it 2-3 times before and it was usually less than 40 orbs 36 minutes ago, Kenrae said: The odds of getting a girl with a MPx1 orb is small. I think it was ~0.5% if I remember correctly, not more than 1% for sure. Yeah, I've seen posts mentioning that its 0.5%-1%, but after reading this thread for some time it seemed like chance usually evens out to be higher than initially implied(?), if so many people can get girl from 50 attempts or less 1/400 would be be 0.25%, 0.5% would mean once every 200 pulls so I miss out even on most pessimistic assertions 😅 Edited January 7, 2021 by Joker555 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Joker555 said: Yeah, I've seen posts mentioning that its 0.5%-1%, but after reading this thread for some time it seemed like chance usually evens out to be higher than initially implied(?), if so many people can get girl from 50 attempts or less 1/400 would be be 0.25%, 0.5% would mean once every 200 pulls so I miss out even on most pessimistic assertions 😅 The problem is that the geometric distribution is not very intuitive, and to go by anecdotal success stories can lead to some misunderstandings. Take the 10% rate of success that is generally assumed for event girl shard drops from the villains. It does mean that the average time until a drop occurs is 10 battles, but it's not symmetrical, e.g. the likelihood that any given drop occurs on the 5th battle is totally different (much higher) than the likelihood of it occurring on the 15th battle. That has the interesting implication that about half of all shard drops are happening within 7 battles, not within 10 as one might be inclined to assume. Within 10 battles you're actually getting about 65% of all drops to occur. The thing here is that the "tail" is very long. Long bad-luck streaks are rare, but when they do happen they make up for a lot of drops that happened in under 10 battles. (E.g. 4 drops in 5 battles each and 1 drop in 30 battles = 5 drops in 50 battles = perfectly average, but with 4 "lucky" ones and just 1 "unlucky".) There's only limited room for a drop to be lucky - you can't get it in less than 1 battle, or 9 battles faster than the average - but the scope of an unlucky run is potentially unlimited. So that's what needs to be kept in mind when reading this thread with all its "got the girl in 30 / 40 / 50 orbs" reports. The true average (whatever it is) is dragged up massively by those rare and unfortunate runs like the one you have had. Edited January 7, 2021 by _shal_ 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Kenrae said: The odds of getting a girl with a MPx1 orb is small. I think it was ~0.5% if I remember correctly, not more than 1% for sure. there isnt any valid data so far, some data hint for a drop rate around 2%, probably it's something in between 0,5-2% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joker555 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 hours ago, _shal_ said: *snip* Yeah, I understand how it goes. In most games I played I was able to surprise people with how long my unfortunate streaks can be. And indeed assuming to get "average" is wishful thinking. Usually games with mechanics that involve something like *gacha* fix it by implementing petty timer. Unfortunately there is no such thing in this game from what I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted January 8, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 8, 2021 Free Spin: Book 4x 6xMyP: Books: 2, 1, 2, 3 Booster: 3, 4, 3, 2 aaaaand: 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Wii, only three single orbs needed for Golden Bunny. Now I'm getting in trouble. For the first time in a very loooooong time, I ran out of gifts on Estelle and now I get another legendary one. 😵😵😵 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted January 8, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted January 8, 2021 Rotation #0252 (2021/01/08 13:00 CET): Golden Bunny, Waitress Eugenie and Neighbourly Chamelea. Got a booster (free spin). I'm obviously going to go for GB (and Eugénie in the process, probably), but I might wait until tomorrow just in case there's a relevant contest for burning orbs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 (edited) There is one now for getting a new girl. Also relevant? 50k kickstart. Edit. 100k even for you. Edited January 8, 2021 by DHarry 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted January 8, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted January 8, 2021 That's a really good point, actually. ^^ Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Kenrae Posted January 8, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 8, 2021 That's why I did it today. I got Waitress Eugene with the free spin + 10 orbs. She was the only available girl for me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted January 8, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted January 8, 2021 22 MPx1 orbs: 10 Books, 10 Boosters and 2 Girls. 😃 Started at 160: and I'm now at 14 girl drops from MPx1 spins in total. Very nice. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KelvinSmythe Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 18 hours ago, _shal_ said: The thing here is that the "tail" is very long. Long bad-luck streaks are rare, but when they do happen they make up for a lot of drops that happened in under 10 battles. Well said post in general, but today's Mythic spins really underscore your point for me personally. I have been certainly lucky in the past and received more than one x100 shard drop, so I have had my fair share of lady luck with HH. Today I was banking on that luck with 80 saved up MPx1 orbs, hoping to get one of the two girls available (Bunny or Eugenie). Instead, I got a mix of boosters, books and avatars! Regression to the mean will always be a thing, so I can't feel too bad when it happens to me Good post Shal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Fuck-a-Lot Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I have been waiting a very long time for Golden Bunny to be available again in the MP (or otherwise). My first intention was like @DvDivXXX to wait until tomorrow, in case there is an Pachinko Daily Contest. But when I realized that today's contest also rewards 50k points for getting an new girl, I decided to get right at it as well. I started with 73 orbs: I would have had enough 3x and 6x MP orbs to any way get Bunny and even Eugenie if necessary, but I'm very happy that I finally got Golden Bunny and only needed 1x MP to get her! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 (edited) Guess who will finally come to daddy one way or another after all this patient wait? (115 x1 Orbs under the free spin) Edited January 8, 2021 by Observer_X 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Edward Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 Mythic x6 Pachinko orbs, simply and easily 😊 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Wow, I will start to think that they will come easier when one has enough orbs to obtain them anyway... she dropped after four avatars, one book and one booster, leaving 109 x1 Orbs to spare: Well, now that finally she is in my harem, I will need some good rotations to obtain more girls... but first I will need to put aside a ton more orbs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falco82 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I had Golden Bunny and Eugenie available in the rotation and after 27 orbs it dropped the right one, so no reason to continue 😁 6th girl obtained 👍 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Like many here I had Golden Bunny and Waitress Eugenie in my available girls. I seldom have any let alone 2, and I had 142x1, 3x3, and 6x6 MyP orbs so off I went. 49 x1 to drop both girls. Skill, all skill. That is getting close to epic x1 rates. I will prepare myself for a no-whine bad luck streak. I dream of getting Elina in the rotation. She is at 99 shards in my partials list (doh!). I have saved an x3 with her name on it almost since MyP began. Just an aside. MyP x1 is sorta like playing the main game pre-shard. The old, pre-shard 100 drop rate was similar to the current MyP x1 drop rate. With PoP, Seasons, POA, etc as sources of MyP x1 orbs you get about 3 - 9 a day so that is like 1.5 - 4.5 hours of pre-shard game play. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom208 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Same thing for me : Golden Bunny and Waitress Eugenie in my available girls. So let's start : Free spin : book. After 64 orbs MPx1, I got Golden Bunny and after 84 more orbs MPx1 (total: 148), I also got Waitress Eugenie. In the process, I also got: Books: 65 Ginseng: 40 Chlorella: 25 Cordyceps: 13 Jujubes: 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blabla07 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 With 79 Mpx1, I thought I could get Golden Bunny ... But nope, not a single girl showed, what a waste 😞 !!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamio Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 15th and 16th from MPX1 Had 46 orbs to start with, and they dropped at the 6th and 20th 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted January 10, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted January 10, 2021 Rotation #0253 (2021/01/10 13:00 CET): Summer Red Battler, Lilly and Yuna Lola. (I'm waiting to see the contest to use my free spin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted January 10, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 10, 2021 Free Spin: Book 108x MyPx1: 48 Booster, 59 Books with the 15th Spin: I hope that I can claim Yuna Lola later while this contest with new Orbs from PoP. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted January 10, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted January 10, 2021 Free spin: Book. 26 MPx1 orbs: 9 Books, 17 Boosters (including 2 Jujubes! ^^) and 1 Girl. This was my 15th MPx1 girl drop. Also my only available one for this rota, so I'll leave the pachinko contest to others. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted January 10, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 10, 2021 After I got some new MyPx1 from Pop at the second try (the first was a Booster): And she is the 11th girl from MyPx1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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