laa (league addicts anonymous) How you doing in the "League"

[MrXY]

Attempt #47 in D3

Info: <current league> [<last league stats>] [<personal best>]

Points: 6559 [?] [6979]

Average: 22.08 [?] [23.5]

Victories: 295/297 [?] [303/303]

I skipped last week, because I was busy. This didn't change (summer time ;)), but at least I did all my fights this week.

I didn't spend much time in trying to figure out my chances for a Top 4, I just did the best I could without AME and standard 2 ginseng, 1 cordy. It was very close, but I'm happy that my last fight, which was a loss with 0,8% probability, was not critical. Well...I don't really trust the probabilty of the script, because such things are happening way too often to my taste. Whatever, seeing the result makes me sad, that I didn't had the confidence in using at least one AME which should have been enough. Next week I have more time and hope for an easy bracket .

[holymolly]

Won both leagues again.. nice and kinda cheap(well not too much because of the bad rng and the need for 1 AM in addition..even though it wasn´t necessary at the end.. but I kinda expected maximo to do a lot better tbh ^^ ) and well.. I kinda overdid myself on nutaku .. since my average was fairly high I figured I try getting a 24 average with my 650/700 team on nutaku ..but then rng hit and it´s now "just" a 23,96 ..still not bad for not being 750 I guess ^^

Silly me forgot to take a screenshot on hh.com
Guess it´s excel time again :

:

and nutaku:

 

[Ravi-Sama]

32 minutes ago, holymolly said:

Silly me forgot to take a screenshot on hh.com
Guess it´s excel time again :

:

Is there a quick way to log the top 15 in Leagues, that I don't know about?  I've seen this twice now, and don't think people would take the time, to manually take note of player IDs and countries.  Just curious.

[Tom208]

Another week in D3, started at level 498, finished at level 499. I think I can stop this progress level since it won't happen again before a while 😉)

Screenshot taken just before the end of the league by @govenants.

Final rank: 3rd

Boosters used : 18 legendaries (1 cordycep / 2 gingseng 6 times). No mythic boosters.

101 players -> 100 opponents -> 300 possible fights -> 300 fights performed -> 300 wins and 0 loss

Nothing particular to say this week. Just another "top 15" during my holydays. 😉

Congrats to @govenants for his winning.

Have a good week and take care.

[holymolly]

1 hour ago, Ravi-Sama said:

Is there a quick way to log the top 15 in Leagues, that I don't know about?  I've seen this twice now, and don't think people would take the time, to manually take note of player IDs and countries.  Just curious.

@Rarum and @zoopokemon are the wizards ofc

everything manually recorded ofc

 

@Tom208 I hope it´ll never happen again because you know..why (I don´t wanna start the every single xp matters gameplay ever again tbh)

[Ravi-Sama]

15 hours ago, holymolly said:

That was enough of a hint, for me to figure it out.  Thanks.  Being able to copy/paste the league page, into an excel sheet, makes comparing scores & averages quicker.  Maybe I can take less screenshots.

https://github.com/zoop0kemon/hh-zoo-script

[holymolly]

7 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

That was enough of a hint, for me to figure it out.  Thanks.  Being able to copy/paste the league page, into an excel sheet, makes comparing scores & averages quicker.  Maybe I can take less screenshots.

https://github.com/zoop0kemon/hh-zoo-script

Good work @Ravi-Sama I knew you´d figure it out

[Kenrae]

I've been out on vacation playing from my phone on autopilot, so no screenshot. I finished second on the previous league after grandpriest.

 

[jelom]

I have been a few weeks out so playing less time and I have no screenshots

My results were:

2022-08-11 league : 3rd

2022-08-18 league : 6th

2022-08-25 league : 4th

[DvDivXXX]

I might as well post this now since there's no more suspense either way (I'll try to take a fresher screenshot near the end for completeness' sake):

UPDATE:

It almost seems that @sinnet89 is a silent follower of this thread. ^^ I'm not sure if my conclusion that I overestimated them and should no longer count them as a threat vexed them, or if they felt sorry for me that I could have snatched the same top 4 at half the price unless they woke up and made a huge leap in score in the final hours... Either way, I'm thankful! I no longer feel bad for this past league. With Sinnet joining the fray, that's a full four players I would never have had a hope in hell to pass over had I gone for a cheap and chill week. ❤️ Thank you! And congrats. You're back on my list of top 4 contenders to reckon with for sure. ^^
/UPDATE.

------------------
D3 run #105 2022/08/25-09/01
Boosters: 24/7 (1x2gin+1co. 2x3co 2x1gin2co 2x3gin). 3 AMs. (006 fights w/o)
100 players. 99 opponents. 297 fights. wins: 297 losses: 0.
Average: 23.58
Finished: top 4
Girl Shards: Elphiba (Week 2) +38%
Refills: 188kos 185kos 182kos 175kos 174kos 167kos 158kos 151kos 113kos 
112kos 88kos 38kos = 1734kos
[[My Day One Analysis:
Contenders for top 4: ME > yyyxxxccc > sinnet89 > who else? squishy group
Maybe: whoever gets lucky past the gap
Plan: Damn. This is too tempting to pass up, I have to go for the win here.
Even though I'll need to rush most of my fights in Phase 1...
my Phase 2 team will be super weak...]]
Cost: 1734kos (refills) + 0kos (3 stored AMs) + 180kos (Cords) = 1914kos
Profit: 4764kos-1914kos = 2850kos. -36kos compared to a chill top 30 (also +2EPx1s, +2Lamps and +8% of the LG girl)

So, this is a failure overall, and it shows just how much I'm struggling with my attempted self-imposed transition from fighting for the top spots to chilling in top 15. This would have been a very valuable opportunity for me had I succeeded in taking the win, with a much more significant benefit in kobans and more importantly a +50% for the LG girl, which would have allowed me to still get her next week despite only getting 30% last week and likely also next week.

Unfortunately, a few factors prevented that: first and foremost, I underestimated yyyxxxccc and they proved to have a stronger team in Phase 2 as well (not quite as perfect as their Phase 1 team, but still stronger than mine, having the two buffed Mythics and a couple other top 7 girls at max level). Conversely, this being my second week in a row with sinnet89 in my group and on my radar as a top 4 contender, unless they make an incredible push in the final few hours and prove me wrong, it seems I overestimated them a great deal and they shouldn't register as a "threat" moving forward. Then, I underestimated just how big my handicap would be from lacking several of the top girls even in Phase 1 (I correctly predicted I would be a lot behind in Phase 2 at least).

I was also a bit too optimistic about getting free cordys in time to make up for my shortage and I ended up having to buy a couple of them at the market. I stuck to my new approach of reducing my koban costs as much as possible still, but maybe a bit too well for my own good at some point (despite burning 3 AM boosters I had on hand, I still ended up making a few fights without the boost for PoA reasons, and I also had to make do with suboptimal regular boosters even under the AM boost for a number of pickoffs over the week, as there were just too many boosted opponents to make the best of my two dedicated mass refills days with 3 cordys on.

At the end of the day, this is not a disaster either. I still didn't lose kobans and, if I'm really lucky with my group for the next league and end up being able to grab a top 4 despite starting with a subpar team and no cordys in Phase 1, I might still get the LG girl in three weeks. Otherwise I'll get her on the fourth week for the first time, and it won't be a big deal. No doubt she'll get the usual treatment nobody can still pretend is just RNG and be blessed right into top 7 immediately after release, but no doubt I wouldn't be able to max her out immediately like whales do either. Of course, looking at the scores right now, three hours before the end, it looks like I might have been able to sneak a top 4 on the cheap instead... But barely, and it was hardly a sure thing. Plus I'll be surprised if this doesn't change in the next few hours anyway. My no AM no refill no good boosters no top team results would have been much lower than what I've reached here. Probably low enough that sinnet89 would have passed me over after all.

So... I'm still far from satisfied or at peace with this dilemma. Competing costs me an arm and a leg and has no guarantee to work, but settling for a passive top 15 is depressing and makes Leagues boring as hell as far as I'm concerned. I'm not quite sure where I'll go from here, honestly. Wait and see.

Good luck have fun this week, folks. Stay safe!

Edited September 1, 2022 by DvDivXXX
updated

[bolitho76]

Mostly expected. The active players with lvl750 Teams had 1-5, I could reach a good 6th. Used 1 AM, 3 Cordys.

[holymolly]

cheap 1st and a low effort 6th  on nutaku (sadly not a cheap top 4 but well ^^)

got the new pvp girl now ^^
 

[Rarum]

It's a shame that La Kajira seemingly wasn't playing during this league. I had good luck and nearly reached the 99.5% mark of scoring efficiency that's been a rare feat even for me. Maybe if I didn't spare expenses with refills, I'd have made it. But as it stands, this league was a bit of a lackluster and too expensive for how easy it turned out to be.

Statistics
# of opponents: 103
My score: 7469 (100.341% of the score with completely average luck)
Expected score: 7443.6

If I had been using the following booster combinations for the duration of the league but with the same fight timing decisions, these would have been my completely average luck scores:
AME+3cor         7485.5
AME+2cor,1gin    7462.7
AME+1cor,2gin    7431.6
AME+2gin,1chlo   7356.5
3 cordy          7319.9
2 cordy, 1 gin   7288.5

Perfect precognition score with average luck and AME+3cor throughout: 7528.92 (24.365 average). The AME+3cor expectation was 99.423% of this.

[Pelinor]

There were 100 players in my D3 league this week. In the end I came in 4th.

Top 15 by class this week:

KH=3, CH=5, HC=7

Have fun everybody

I'll c'y on the flip side

[jelom]

Congrats to swindle for his victory this week. I don't remember him from past leagues, so I didn't thought he could rush in the last day. Lately is harder to identify the stronger players when half of the bracket has reached level 500. The proposed team total strength ordering would really improve the tracking of players.

-MM- and night_angel completed top 4.

I was second with 6890 and 23,20 average. As usual without AME.

[Incubys]

Screen shot from 4am due to work.

Ended league in 3rd place

Started with 3xCord from previous week, used 2xGin & 1xCord for most of week, then finished week with 3xCord. Also used 1xAME.

7 re-fills costing 1,108 kobans.

As my 2nd phase teams were the strongest, I left a lot of fights til 2nd week. However by Mon I was worried I wouldn't make Top 15 so used an AME for last 100 fights. Surprised but happy to end up top 4. 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Incubys

[Ravi-Sama]

  Summary

Finished 5th, w/ a 6387 score, & 21.51 avg.  Used 6x 3 Cords, 2x 3 Gins, & 64% of a CbC AME.  Used 5.28 refills, spending 997 kos, for a 1889 kos net profit.  Player lvl increased once from 464-465.  Girl cap is lvl 750.  6 defeats out of 297 fights.

Teams

Used balanced 149.49-159.98k teams for offense/defense.  I could've had a 187.2k team in the 2nd half, if I had the resources, but settled for a ~160k team instead.  By that point, I only had 46 fights left.

Boosters/Refills

I had a leftover free CbC AME at the start.  Decided to use 3 Cords throughout, to see how high I'd rank.  Used refills in the first half, where the gap between team power wouldn't be too drastic.  Also, coinciding w/ the PoA, to finish some tiers quicker.

Rankings

I was ranked 2nd to 6th throughout.  Nonya jumped to 1st on the first day, and stayed there, I assume.  I took screenshots, and copied the top 30's scores periodically, but only know the rankings up until the final 7.5 hrs.  Decided to sleep well instead.  Ended up ranked 5th, for the 2nd time in a row.  I suppose, that's the power of 3 cords, 1 AME, and level 750.  I'll take pride in a double 5th place.  It means I'm on the verge of tasting that sweet top 4 nectar,... one day.  Probably not within the next 2 weeks.

Profits

Limited myself to spending 1k kos on refills, and my cords/AME were free, so my profit was 1889 kos.  I knew how much I could spend before the MD, and still have good odds to get the next mythic.

Future Outlook

I don't like the current blessings, even though they have good potential, and next week's blessings have a 149k to 160k potential for me as well.  I'll just use 3 gins all week, w/ 1-2 refills, and see where I rank.  I have less than 21 cords now, so might as well use these poor blessings, as an opportunity to save up, for better blessings.  I expect to be ranked in the low top 15, or high top 30.  Still earning a decent amount of kobans.

@Rarum  Do you have any tips on how to make excel recognize the granular times of each score?  I have 2-3 snapshots from each day, including the times, but it ignores that, and plots it along the day itself.  Not that it'd help me in any way, I just think it'd be cool to see.  I did notice that most players chose to use refills at blessings change.  Always assumed so, but now I can see it.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Ravi-Sama

[MrXY]

Attempt #48 in D3

Info: <current league> [<last league stats>] [<personal best>]

Points: 6559 [6559] [6979]

Average: 22.08 [22.08] [23.5]

Victories: 295/297 [295/297] [303/303]

Nothing special to report from last week. I discovered several strong players, so I did not consider using AME or strong legendary boosters. For some time now I'm not active enough to optimize my fights and a Top 4 was way too unsure. I just took my usual cheap play to earn the Top 15 kobans.

[Kenrae]

I wasn't very active last league but @Slynia was less active than me - he simply demoted  . I didn't recognize any other threat and it seems I was right. I won without using any AME:

 

[Tom208]

 Screenshot taken 8 minutes before the end of the league.

Final rank: 2nd

Boosters used : 18 legendaries (1 cordycep / 2 gingseng 6 times). No mythic boosters.

101 players -> 100 opponents -> 300 possible fights -> 300 fights performed -> 300 wins and 0 loss

Using mythic boosters would have been useful to win this league but it's not very convenient during PoA, so no regrets.

Have a good week and take care.

[bolitho76]

4th time 1st place in D3! I had thought that yoyowhan would be a harder opponent with his lvl750 team. I used 3 AM and all time Cordyceps. My team was mostly lvl700. Only Sheba is at lvl 650 and Radka at lvl 732.

[Liliat]

D3, Week 31:

- Score: 6095 (New record, +141)

- Avg: 20.52 (New record, +0,48)

- Rank: 13th ❤️

- Boosters: 2x Ginseng, 1x Cordy, no AM

I was able to get a full lvl 750 team for the first time, a couple of days ago. It should be easier from here.

3rd time I make it into the Top 15. I was confident I would get good results (Above 6k for the first time), but I was worried about the competition. The entire Top 15 was above 6000 as well 😨

Top 10:

Edited September 8, 2022 by Liliat

[Incubys]

Screen shot taken just before re-set

Started with 3 Cordys from previous league, used 2xGin / 1xCordy 5 times, and finished with 3xCordys. At re-set saw there might be a chance of a top 4 so used an AME against opponents 56-89, which turned a comfortable top 15 to a top 4. 

Used 725 on re-fills. Net gain 4,039 (moved from top 15 - top 4)

Edited September 8, 2022 by Incubys

[Rarum]

I have had two defense team suggesting systems in the past, but both had problems that meant I hardly would use them. I feel like the first one was just too slow to be of any practical use and was increasing the code complexity of the then singular file everything was on. The second, hastily implemented, system on the other hand took too many shortcuts meaning it wouldn't really take any time at all in addition to what the code would be doing regardless but it also would only check teams I manually selected, and I didn't have a good system of telling when the blessings change had occurred and the old suggestions would have to be cleared.

Now armed with the performance from HH++'s recursive exhaustive battle simulation, the modular code structure also "plagiarized" from Numbers, and with sufficient energy to try once more, I've made a third system. This one actually works inside the harem screen. It's a place I've taken a liking to using for simulations in hypothetical settings. I can reconstruct the player's stats from what I've put into local storage from the market page, what I've recorded about the teams I have access to (which could be reconstructed on this page too regardless), plus what's in the Hero.infos. But also of some importance is that it's easily accessible. For this defense team suggester what drew me to the harem page was especially that it houses stats for (a good portion of the) girls you don't yet have in your harem.

There are always some design decisions to make for a defense team suggestion system. Perhaps the most important one of them all is: just what are you defending against? I decided on the worst-case scenario of a player who has every girl and has them maxed out, is level 500 (with equipment stats assumed to be same as my own), battles with 3 cordyceps and an AME, is in a maxed out club, and even optimizes their teams to the fullest extent. Furthermore, I decided to model my side to not be boosted, since I'm not a permaboosting type usually. However, that is not all that difficult to reconfigure. I made a similar decision regarding mono equipment; I figured I'd model myself with 0 mono equipment to prevent the hassle becoming untenable, although this limit is also easily lifted if I ever felt like it.

A couple of words about the speed of the calculations. It's actually "usable" because it's got a cache for teams the opponent might try among other optimizations I made while still trying to have a decent simulation when the battle simulations were still stochastic. Even still, 3432 defense team candidates are tried, and the opponent has a roster of 238 teams times 7 configurations of mono equipment to choose from. So... a gross of 5.7 million battle configurations are tested. (It would be a further 7 times that if all the player's mono amounts were to be tested, or like 50000 times if the stochastic simulations were still a thing.) I made one run with all the optimizations turned off, too, and all 35 of the teams it suggested along the way gave exactly the same predicted averages for my opponent, so... best to just keep those optimizations on and save a whole lot of time. But it's nice to know they are working as intended.

I have some doubts about the perfect precognition score; there's an instance of a person having been recorded a best of 25 expectation yet I never noticed anything nearly as low myself.

Blessings
1st week: +30% for Eccentric, +35% for Jack Hammer
2nd week: +20% for Common, +40% for Capricorn

Defense teams used
1st week: darkness2-fire2-water1-stone1-nature1 consisting of Valentine Nikki Benz, Royal Housemaid, Matcha, Demi, Radka, Alexa and Druiada Titania. 21.987 is the maximum average one could get against it. For comparison, the very best defense team would have been fire2-water1-darkness1-stone1-light1-nature1 consisting of Valentine Nikki Benz, Shtupra, Demi, Aella, Radka, Alexa and Jessie. 21.616 is the maximum average one could get against it.

2nd week: darkness2-psychic2-stone1-fire1-nature1 consisting of Hazel, Madame Ivanka, Undercover Valentina, Nike, Succubus Abraël, Felicia and Trixie. 21.605 is the maximum average one could get against it.

Statistics
# of opponents: 102
My score: 7318 (100.104% of the score with completely average luck)
Expected score: 7310.4

If I had been using the following booster combinations for the duration of the league but with the same fight timing decisions, these would have been my completely average luck scores:
AME+3cor         7383.8
AME+2cor,1gin    7359.6
AME+1cor,2gin    7324.9
AME+2gin,1chlo   7253.6
3 cordy          7217.6
2 cordy, 1 gin   7182.6

Perfect precognition score with average luck and AME+3cor throughout: 7461.42 (24.384 average). The AME+3cor expectation was 98.96% of this.

[DvDivXXX]

------------------
D3 run #106 2022/09/01-08
Boosters: 24/7 (6x2gin+1co. 1x3gin 0x1gin2co 0x3co). 0 AMs. (297 fights w/o)
100 players. 99 opponents. 297 fights. wins: 293  losses: 4.
Average: 22.04
Finished: TOP 4! ^^
Girl Shards: Elphiba (Week 3) +38% X!
Refills: 107kos 88kos 25kos = 220kos
[[My Day One Analysis:
Contenders for top 4: Maximo (top 7 at 750: 190k team) > GetOverHere > me?
Maybe: whoever gets lucky past the gap
Plan: Hmpf. The field is weak as hell, and I should get by in Phase 1 and dominate in Phase 2. That said,  Maximo can easily beat me if he wants to, so let's aim for a cheap top 4 instead.]]
Cost: 220kos (refills) + 0kos (AMs) + 0kos (Cords) = 220kos
Profit: 4764kos-220kos = 4544kos ❤️

Surprises of the week: 1/ what the hell are those low scores? ^^ I'm definitely not complaining, easiest top 4 of my life, but still I wonder what happened there. 2/ Watt27 (500/750) went from meh to a near top team in Phase 2, then his boosters expired half an hour before the end (which I was lucky enough to take advantage of), and he then made a push to top 4 technically, but "lucky past the gap" style (I imagine he equipped new boosters before that, it's just that the random individual snapshot only triggered when he got unboosted, not when he boosted himself again). Weird. 3/ Whatever happened to GetOverHere? How can he not have even made a top 15 with that weak of a field?

Beyond that, well. I seem to have overestimated Maximo, or possibly not in case he played that league casual as fuck on purpose, despite having the absolute top team at max level in both Phases. Regardless, he seems to have wasted quite a lot of kobans in refills for no good reason, as he was well behind me in score until the last 24 hours. And I had only played natural regen style with a chill 2gin1co and no AM setup up to that point, so considering his much much stronger team, it means he likely skipped tons of natural regen and then had to catch up with a lot of wasteful, non-strategic last minute refills. Given his final score, had my line-ups not been so weak in both Phases... I could have easily beaten his performance (oh yeah, I expected to kind of dominate in Phase 2 because I was hoping to grab a lot more Blue gems to max out Sheba by then, which never happened). Anyhow, all is well that ends well. I got the LG girl and an almost free top 4. What's not to love? ^^

Good luck have fun this week, folks. Stay safe!