Moderator DvDivXXX Posted September 10, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) Hey guys, So, PoP has been here for a little over 24 hours and I think it's good to get this ball rolling early on before too many people forget their first results. This should be pretty straightforward: I'd like this thread to be an ongoing long-term project to estimate drop chances per reward type for PoP (Places of Power) missions, by sharing data, much like our great community has been doing for shard drops, EPx1 orb drops and everything else since the dawn of the Haremverse. ^^ I'd like to keep this clean and simple, please. No screenshots necessary. Ideally, one permanent post per participant, that you'd be willing to update (use "EDIT", don't make a new post) regularly with your latest data. If we all use the same post format, it'll be that much easier to follow and compile. I'll try to come up with weekly(-ish?) summaries, unless any of the Excel wizards steps in and gives me a hand on that ( @_shal_ , @Antimon ... you guys know who you are ^^). We should start with PoP #1 (Goblins: Masters of Shadows - HC), but it should be easy enough to include future PoPs as they're released. It's fine to specify which Level your PoP is at, although I'll be extremely surprised if that changes anything with the results. EDIT: Big update today (2020/10/21) with PoP #2 and #3 being added. Please add a separate tab per PoP in your existing post. Additional templates below. Thanks! ****IMPORTANT For the purpose of this experiment, we're only interested in knowing whether your spin landed on "Girl shards", "Tickets", etc. not how many total tickets, shards, orbs etc. you accumulated.*** Please feel free to copy-paste (don't use "Quote Selection", just Ctrl+C/V) the following templates, fill it in with your current results, and then update your post as regularly as you can: PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level ---) Missions: --- | --- Girl %: --- Ticket(s): --- | --- MPx1 orb(s): --- | --- GPx10 orb(s): --- | --- PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level ---) Missions: --- | --- Girl %: --- Ticket(s): --- | --- MPx1 orb(s): --- | --- GPx10 orb(s): --- | --- PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level ---) Missions: --- | --- Girl %: --- Ticket(s): --- | --- MPx1 orb(s): --- | --- GPx10 orb(s): --- | --- Oh, and just one more thing: Please let us know once you complete the (current) Girl (for any given PoP), as it changes your reward pool from 4 items to 3. Ideally, you could start a different list from then on, removing the Girl% line. I'll of course start right below this post. I'm hoping to attract the usual suspects, but the more merrier, any help will be appreciated. Just, please follow the rules when you do contribute. Many thanks in advance, and best of luck to all in this new game feature! Link to a Google Sheet by @Tom208: here. Link to Tom's post with his table tracking our global stats. Link to @Antimon's post with his table tracking our global stats. Link to @FinderKeeper's post with his table tracking our global stats, karma and stuff. (Thank you guys for this!) FINAL UPDATE: Presumably all of us have (long) completed the original 3 PoP girls by now, and then some with the 3 next ones. We got the reasonable estimates we wanted to get out of this project, so I'm unpinning it. Thanks again to all participants! Edited April 1, 2021 by DvDivXXX Final update 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted September 10, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 173 | 152 Girl %: 10 Ticket(s): 49 | 53 MPx1 orb(s): 65 | 45 GPx10 orb(s): 49 | 54 PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level 1 for 36 missions, then Level 10) Missions: 130 | 70 Girl %: 12 Ticket(s): 42 | 34 MPx1 orb(s): 38 | 16 GPx10 orb(s): 38 | 20 PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level 1 for 37 missions, then Level 10) Missions: 126 | 74 Girl %: 15 Ticket(s): 36 | 24 MPx1 orb(s): 36 | 22 GPx10 orb(s): 39 | 28 Edited December 31, 2020 by DvDivXXX updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Slynia Posted September 10, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 58 | 145 Girl %: 10 Ticket(s): 18 | 48 MPx1 orb(s): 15 | 40 GPx10 orb(s): 15 | 57 -------------------------- PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level 10) Missions: 57 | 29 Girl %: 10 Ticket(s): 18 | 12 MPx1 orb(s): 13 | 9 GPx10 orb(s): 16 | 7 -------------------------- PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level 10) Missions: 69 | 17 Girl %: 10 Ticket(s): 19 | 9 MPx1 orb(s): 15 | 5 GPx10 orb(s): 25 | 3 -------------------------- PoP #1 (4) HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2021/01/27 (Level 10) Missions: 91 | --- Girl %: 10 Ticket(s): 29 | --- MPx1 orb(s): 27 | --- GPx10 orb(s): 26 | --- Edited March 5, 2021 by Slynia 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
test_anon Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 2) Missions: 10 Girl %: 2 Ticket(s): 2 MPx1 orb(s): 4 GPx10 orb(s): 2 PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/13 (Level 8) Missions: 85 Girl %: 9 Ticket(s): 20 MPx1 orb(s): 32 GPx10 orb(s): 24 +1 unknown draw (I think GPx10). (I closed the PoP after clicking on the claim button, the reward was not shown to me). Edited October 19, 2020 by test_anon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom208 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) Overall statistics (03/01/2021 00h34 UTC+1): My drops: PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 9) Missions: 193 | 135 Girl %: 21 (107%) Ticket(s): 54 | 39 MPx1 orb(s): 61 | 43 GPx10 orb(s): 57 | 53 PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level 9) Missions: 147 | 60 Girl %: 13 (106%) Ticket(s): 43 | 23 MPx1 orb(s): 45 | 13 GPx10 orb(s): 46 | 24 PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level 9) Missions: 159 | 48 Girl %: 14 (105%) Ticket(s): 47 | 24 MPx1 orb(s): 51 | 10 GPx10 orb(s): 47 | 14 Edited January 2, 2021 by Tom208 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator FinderKeeper Posted September 10, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP#1 PoP#2 PoP#3 Missions: 157 | 0 39 | 0 39 | 0 Girl shard(s): 10 | 4 | 5 | Ticket(s): 47 | 0 14 | 0 10 | 0 MPx1 orb(s): 51 | 0 8 | 0 11 | 0 GPx10 orb(s): 49 | 0 13 | 0 13 | 0 To receive karma rating, submit results of more than 30 missions. PoP #1 Subtracting 1 shard drop from PoP2 and PoP3 for now: PoP #2 PoP #3 Edited November 4, 2020 by FinderKeeper 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator govenants Posted September 10, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 105 Girl 10%: 7 Ticket(s): 24 MPx1 orb(s): 28 GPx10 orb(s): 46 Edited October 12, 2020 by govenants updated 12/10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sygfried94 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 17 Girl 1%: 4 Ticket(s): 5 MPx1 orb(s): 3 GPx10 orb(s): 5 Edited September 12, 2020 by Sygfried94 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xemnas Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 5) Missions: 34 Girl 1%: 6 Ticket(s): 11 MPx1 orb(s): 8 GPx10 orb(s): 9 Edited October 4, 2020 by Xemnas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troctout Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 9) Missions: 128 |199 Girl %: 13 | Ticket(s): 34 | 63 MPx1 orb(s): 33 | 70 GPx10 orb(s): 48 | 66 PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level 9) Missions: 50 | 176 Girl %: 12 | Ticket(s): 13 | 53 MPx1 orb(s): 14 | 61 GPx10 orb(s): 11 | 62 PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level 9) Missions: 136 | 93 Girl %: 12 | Ticket(s): 52 | 24 MPx1 orb(s): 33 | 35 GPx10 orb(s): 39 | 34 Forgotten draw (no shard) : Pop1 : 21 ; Pop2 : 14 ; Pop 3 : 10 Edited January 27, 2021 by Troctout maj résultats 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBossDick Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 60 Girl %: 6 10% Ticket(s): 19 31,6% MPx1 orb(s): 14 23,3% GPx10 orb(s): 21 35% Edited October 1, 2020 by BigBossDick updated 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fucky Luke Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 60 Girl %: 5 8,3% Ticket(s): 18 30% MPx1 orb(s): 21 35% GPx10 orb(s): 16 26,6% Edited October 1, 2020 by Fucky Luke updated 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Kenrae Posted September 10, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 33 Girl %: 4 Ticket(s): 8 MPx1 orb(s): 8 GPx10 orb(s): 13 Edited October 4, 2020 by Kenrae 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted September 10, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 1) Missions: 387 Girl %: 30 Ticket(s): 102 MPx1 orb(s): 128 GPx10 orb(s): 127 Obtained the girl with the 248th Reward (18x1 shard, 2x2 shards, 6x8 shards and 4x9 shardds) PoP #2 KH (Goblins: Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/21/10 (Level 1) Missions: 267 Girl %: 18 Ticket(s): 82 MPx1 orb(s): 83 GPx10 orb(s): 84 Obtained the girl with the 225th Reward (7x1 shard, 11x9 shards) PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/21/10 (Level 1) Missions: 267 Girl %: 25 Ticket(s): 81 MPx1 orb(s): 81 GPx10 orb(s): 79 Obtained the girl with the 267 Reward (15*1 shards, 10*9 shards) At this point I will end my tracking of drops Edited January 23, 2021 by bolitho76 update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09, until 2020/10/08 (Level 8) Missions: 85+1 Girl %: 12+1 Ticket(s): 22 MPx1 orb(s): 25 GPx10 orb(s): 26 Girl acquired with 13 x 8 = 104 shards. [+1 = Sep 23 post-bug shard drop for all players] Note: I won't be tracking my drops any further beyond this point. Edited October 8, 2020 by _shal_ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 9) Missions: 162 | --- Girl %: 14 (99%) Ticket(s): 62 | --- MPx1 orb(s): 39 | --- GPx10 orb(s): 47 | --- PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level 9) Missions: 78 | --- Girl %: 8 (71%) Ticket(s): 27 | --- MPx1 orb(s): 19 | --- GPx10 orb(s): 24 | --- PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level 9) Missions: 74 | 4 Girl %: 12 (100%) Ticket(s): 20 | 2 MPx1 orb(s): 18 | 0 GPx10 orb(s): 24 | 2 I'll move under spoiler tag past reports, if anyone is interested in seeing the progression of estimated chances over time. In the next few days I'll post the new report, as soon as I can, and as soon as I decide if making three separate tables for the three different PoPs or just one for an overall view - September 30th seventeen days after my last report, with ~4,5 times the entries we had - September 13th two days after my last report and with ~5 times the entries we had two days ago - September 11th shal I'll follow you with the spacing 😂 Btw, here a first glance on chances derived from the 51 entries reported in this topic (I can't assure you I'll be able to give updates more than once in a month, though) It's a way too little sample to make valid assumptions, of course, but if I had to bet on something, I'd say that a 10/30/30/30 situation seems at least plausible Edited December 1, 2020 by Antimon 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted September 10, 2020 Author Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2020 37 minutes ago, _shal_ said: (For my own sanity, I hope it's okay that I've messed with the spacing.) That's a fair point, it's much easier to read with the numbers aligned, thanks. I've edited the template in my OP and I changed it in my own data post as well. You know, in theory... I could edit all the other non-OCD posts so that everything is neat and aligned... ^^ Ah, too late, I was trying to twist your arm into accepting Excel summary duties, but Antimon just volunteered for free! ^^ 7 minutes ago, Antimon said: here a first glance on chances derived from the 51 entries reported in this topic (I won't assure you I'll be able to give updates more than once in a month, though) You rule. Glad to see you on board with this too. Oh.. so you might need some help on Excel duties after all... Interesting. ^^ I might still have some leverage on Shal, then. @ALL: Thank you for all the support and contributions so far, guys! That's very much appreciated. 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocJD Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 3) Missions: 21 Girl %: 3 Ticket(s): 5 MPx1 orb(s): 8 GPx10 orb(s): 5 Edited September 17, 2020 by DocJD 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 76 Girl %: 10 (finished) Ticket(s): 19 MPx1 orb(s): 21 GPx10 orb(s): 26 There is no time limit so it doesn't matter when you get the girl in PoP, but I am glad I obtained 100 shards for Pit'chun in less than a month I think I will stop taking stats here, at least until a new PoP is released. Edited October 4, 2020 by jelom 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamio Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 94 Girl %: 10 (complete) Ticket(s): 34 MPx1 orb(s): 26 GPx10 orb(s): 24 PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level 7/9) Missions: 152| --- Girl %: 12 (girl complete) Ticket(s): 50| --- MPx1 orb(s): 38| --- GPx10 orb(s): 52| --- PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level 8/9) Missions: 107| --- Girl %: 12 (girl complete) Ticket(s): 33| --- MPx1 orb(s): 31| --- GPx10 orb(s): 31| --- Edited December 14, 2020 by Zamio updated - 2020/12/14 (HC#1 - includes bug compensation shard drop) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaeeger Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 115 Girl %: 10 (Finished 18/10/2020) Ticket(s): 40 MPx1 orb(s): 32 GPx10 orb(s): 33 Edited October 27, 2020 by jaeeger I won't be updating any more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) On HH: PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 21 Girl %: 2 Ticket(s): 7 MPx1 orb(s): 3 GPx10 orb(s): 9 On Nutaku: PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 10) Missions: 23 Girl %: 0 Ticket(s): 7 MPx1 orb(s): 7 GPx10 orb(s): 9 Edited September 18, 2020 by Chthugha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmitrii Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 4->8->10) Missions: 113 | 46 Girl %: 13 (complete) Ticket(s): 45 | 17 MPx1 orb(s): 27 | 15 GPx10 orb(s): 28 | 14 PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/10/21 (Level 4->9) Missions: 60 Girl %: 9 Ticket(s): 13 MPx1 orb(s): 15 GPx10 orb(s): 23 PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/10/21 (Level 4->9) Missions: 60 Girl %: 10 Ticket(s): 26 MPx1 orb(s): 14 GPx10 orb(s): 10 Edited November 21, 2020 by Dmitrii 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProxyBoxy Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 1) Missions: 27 Girl %: 3 Ticket(s): 13 MPx1 orb(s): 7 GPx10 orb(s): 4 Edited September 19, 2020 by ProxyBoxy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 (edited) PoP #1 HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2020/09/09 (Level 1-9) Missions: 174 | 13 Girl %: 20 | n/a Ticket(s): 54 | 3 MPx1 orb(s): 47 | 3 GPx10 orb(s): 53 | 7 PoP #2 KH (Part-time Purifiers) since 2020/21/10 (Level 2-9) Missions: 98 | 91 Girl %: 14 | n/a Ticket(s): 30 | 21 MPx1 orb(s): 23 | 32 GPx10 orb(s): 31 | 38 PoP #3 CH (Kinks on Air) since 2020/21/10 (Level 2-9) Missions: 91 | 98 Girl %: 13 | n/a Ticket(s): 19 | 29 MPx1 orb(s): 25 | 31 GPx10 orb(s): 34 | 38 PoP #1 (4) HC (Goblins: Masters of Shadows) since 2021/01/27 (Level 9) Missions: 48 | --- Girl %: 7 | n/a Ticket(s): 12 | --- MPx1 orb(s): 14 | --- GPx10 orb(s): 15 | --- Edited February 24, 2021 by Zteev Now on 4th girl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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