100 shards drop: Myth or Reality?

[_shal_]

Incidentally, I'm also not convinced that the probability of 100 drops is fixed and constant for everything, but for a completely different reason: I wouldn't be surprised if it differs depending on each event type's general shard drop rate, and may be different entirely for world girls as opposed to event girls.

[jelom]

22 minutes ago, _shal_ said:

Incidentally, I'm also not convinced that the probability of 100 drops is fixed and constant for everything, but for a completely different reason: I wouldn't be surprised if it differs depending on each event type's general shard drop rate, and may be different entirely for world girls as opposed to event girls.

It could be that way, but with such low probabilities for x100 lucky drops, (my estimation is in the range of 0,01% to 0,05%, with 0,1% as a maximum if what you said were true)  the difference wouldn't be appreciated by players, talking in practical terms. And in any case I go with the general principle that the simpler explanation should be the most probable, and the minimum effort in the coding is the most simpler explanation.

[_shal_]

21 minutes ago, jelom said:

It could be that way, but with such low probabilities for x100 lucky drops, (my estimation is in the range of 0,01% to 0,05%, with 0,1% as a maximum if what you said were true)  the difference wouldn't be appreciated by players, talking in practical terms.

It doesn't really need to conform to players' expectations though, just to what Kinkoid believe are the appropriate rates for giving out girls "for free". Individual player battle results don't matter for them, just what things look like across the whole 100,000 or whatever active player base.

Anecdotally I feel we "should" be seeing more reports of people getting 100's on world girls (especially the late worlds) if the probability was flat, considering how many battles it takes to obtain those girls.

Edited July 19, 2020 by _shal_

[snowman22]

I got about 5 100 drops early on when we first went to shards. I think I was getting about 1 a month.

Then nothing, more nothing, more nothing, .... until today.

 

[Pelinor]

I was looking for more money when I went after Fredy Sih Roko Senseï, Imagine my shock when I got a 100 shard drop for Camile instead! She may not be part of the "Orgy Days" event but I'll take her.

 😊

Edited July 20, 2020 by Pelinor

[Lhans]

My 100 shard drops had always extremely rare except for the previous anniversary event. With an incredible burst of extremely good luck, I somehow managed to get 3 of them in a couple of days and when the target girls were at 25 shards or below. Suffice to say I was really happy that time. It blunted the pain my koban wallet was feeling in financing all the refills I had to do to get the other 6 girls available to me due to the horrendous shard drop rate.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Lhans

[Zteev]

22 hours ago, Cartageno said:

This is generally true, and I play MMOs where players pool their data to get odds from lockboxes or similar an we have pretty solid ideas of non-published probabilities. However, since the assumption in question was that odds will differ depending on payment in the store, the only odds we really could use are those of f2p players who will have the same amount spent (0), while I guess only very few players have a complete list of how much they paid, possibly often not even knowing a good ball park figure, and it would be unlikely for them to be the same or at least so close we can assume them to be practically the same.

Yes. Being one of those 0 money spent players, I know what I've spent.

This isn't one of those games where you in-app purchases are tracked via Google Play Store or the Apple Store; there you can get a much better handle on spending.

[Zteev]

5 hours ago, Pelinor said:

I was looking for more money when I went after Fredy Sih Roko Senseï, Imagine my shock when I got a 100 shard drop for Camile instead! She may not be part of the "Orgy Days" event but I'll take her.

 😊

She's part of Orgy days, but they didn't do a good job on the announcement.

[jelom]

I am on a really lucky streak, another anniversary gift just four days after the last one I had a lucky x100 with just 29 battles.

My tenth girl dropped with lucky x100 drop: Evelin, Sara Jay, Ombresse, Ria, Arianne, Dickachoo, Athena, Shade, Winter Sophie and now Summer Geekette.

[Ruby150]

As of today, that would be four girls. I got Darla, Alpha and Omega (who was at 13), Jackie (who was at 98 Attraction), and Val Norou (who was at 65)... suffice to say, I wasn't happy about Jackie, since I had spent kobans trying to get her. Felt more like a slap in the face, really. Now Darla, I wasn't expecting to get, because I had around 2,000 kobans, so she was a nice surprise

[Тёмный Властелин]

[DvDivXXX]

11th x100 drop for me:

The variance is huge, but with this one I'm back to an average of 1 per month (I started in mid-August 2019). I'm fine with that. Some players are way luckier than that (especially in my club ^^), but others nowhere near as much, obviously.

Another one pretty close to completion, but honestly those flowers are more than welcomed, as I've been burning through my stash of gifts pretty fast lately.

[DocJD]

I've been playing for over 4 months and have over 70 girls.

I got my first 100x shard drop today for Event girl Anniversary Fairy. I already had 87 shards, so I got a lot of extra gifts, worth over $4.7 M

[windia]

I have no numbers, just my joy 😍:

[blaa]

there it is, another drop with only 40 flowers, that's great

(unfortunately I was one fight before on karole where I hadnt had shard for the girl and I would have loved to fight gruntt a little bit more since I am still on tier 2)

Edited August 5, 2020 by blaa

[Slynia]

My 3rd ever 100 shards drop when she was at 46 shards.
I haven't gotten a 100 shards drop since last year if my memory serves me right. 

[natstar]

100 shard drops just give me lots of gifts because i almost have gotten enough shards to complete the event harem member by then lol.

[Тёмный Властелин]

[Antimon]

no direct screenshot of it 'cause I was playing on the phone, but I got a lucky x100 on Fanny & Fione when I was at 30 shards with her. I guess now I could fight against ninja spy to save a few shards for Sai, but I think I'll save time and kobans this time. Finally I'm reducing my list of "girls in stand by" of my harem, I don't want to add a new one right away.

 

[@ki]

After spending around 2000 cobans on getting sai finally got 100 shard drop when she was at 89

 

[_shal_]

At last, on my 9th LD girl since shards were introduced...

[Magic1986]

Got Eva very fast

 

[DHarry]

On 7/20/2020 at 4:14 AM, snowman22 said:

I got about 5 100 drops early on when we first went to shards. I think I was getting about 1 a month.

Then nothing, more nothing, more nothing, .... until today.

 

5?! You should have been done for life. 😜

 

Gratz regardless. 😄

[Karyia]

Lady luck making a timely appearance  👌

 

 

[Magic1986]

Another 100 Shard dropp, already had 89 but yeah.